In thinking about benchmarks, does it matter right now which oil price to refer to? Jim H. and others have noted Brent is a more appropriate benchmark for gasoline prices.
Figure 1: Log of ratio of WTI oil price to Brent oil price, % (blue, left scale), and dollar difference between WTI oil price and Brent oil price, $/bbl (red, right scale). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: EIA via FRED, and author’s calculations.
“But surging production from Canada and the central United States overwhelmed capacity to transport crude out of the hub in Cushing, Oklahoma where existing pipelines carry it. The result was that U.S. refineries on the coast paid the high world price for imported crude, lacking a cheap way to access the product landlocked in Cushing.”
Dr. Hamilton’s discussion from the summer of 2013 continues on the importance of logistics to the pricing of WTI. Over 8 years later, a logistics crisis is driving up the prices of other goods.
Sep 2021 eia article on cushing inventory.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49636
i learn something every day.
Transportation of energy is a key point.
I recently published an article on the real time series of oil price in the 1970s because of that.
From 1970 up to 1974, oil transportation costs (waterborne) for a bbl were of the order of magnitude of oil bbl posted prices …
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/chapter-2-inflation-vietnam-oil-1970s-michel-lepetit/?published=t
I hope James would read that study 🙂
Next paper will be on the US peak of conventional oil in the 1970s, ( TRC ; Fed of Dallas ; Senate Hearings ; Oil Import Question Report of 1970 …)
I agree that if one has to pick one, Brent is substantially more important than WTI, although both play roles in determining gasoline prices in the US, with this varying largely depending on location.
Crude oil prices mixed today, basically no movement.
This is a broad article on the energy issues, but there is an interesting chart on the relationship between oil and gasoline prices near the beginning.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-warning-signs-for-bidens-green-energy-revolution-201013359.html?
I pity the fool that doesn’t listen to the knowledge of Mr. T:
https://twitter.com/MrT/status/1459652734894804994
You can’t spell “Team” without the T.
https://twitter.com/SilverAgeTV/status/1369757435284647946/photo/1
1. I agree that Brent is the better reference for gasoline prices, given it is coastal. Also given US crude has sometimes been restricted from imports (and some worries this may happen again), while refined products are freely traded. All that said, it’s much less of an issue now, first half of the ’10s, given current infrastructure (at least for now) and given US crude export allowed now. Spread bounces a little but, aside from that crazy COVID closeout month, has been within a few bucks.
2. It sort of depends what question you are interested in, which index you use. I agree Brent is superior for discussing gasoline or Atlantic basin (or even World) crude prices. That said, WTI is helpful if you are say (twiddles thumbs) building an NPV model for a US producer doing a local acquisition or doing local capital projects.
3. WTI is, within the US, much more commonly used by producers, refiners, and in the news media. So, it’s important to be clear that you’re using Brent if you mean that. For instance, if I say casually “oil just dropped below $80” [it just did], almost anyone would think I’m talking about WTI, which I am. I’ve seen this be an issue before, though. For instance, some CNBC Broadcast News fluffheads were interviewing Fereidun Fesharaki (sp?), who’s an entertaining and savvy oil markets consultant and it was obvious to me, that the CNBCers were giving numbers in WTI (familiar to their audience) and he was referring to Brent (best World metric and they were discussing World markets and he is sort of a “global” guy). Metrics were $5 apart and thus the confusion where they were talking past each other. As that $5 was important in the context of their discussion.
4. Another common point of confusion is WTI (the substance) versus WTI (the index). Lot of physical West Texas Intermediate heads down nowadays directly to the Gulf for use there, never going near Cushing. And significant amounts of WTI is exported (sometimes over 3MM bopd, significant factor of overall international oil trade). But WTI-indexed crude (called DSW or Domestic Sweet Crude, when referring to the physical commodity at Cushing) doesn’t have to come from the Midland. Can come from OK, ND, etc. (as well as TX). It just needs to meet the specifications in terms of API gravity, S, etc. Brent also has certain specs but is more tightly bound to a certain basket of North Sea oil fields. NOT just the “Brent” field, but several of them. This basket has changed over time as parts of the North Sea declined, so that sufficient volume was there to keep the traded instrument stable. There is even a plan to start including (physical) WTI in the dated Brent basket! (With Rotterdam delivery.) That change was already supposed to be made but hasn’t yet because there were other kerfuffles about how they wanted to change some of the destination details for Brent overall.
5. James is right to say the two indexes refer to substances that are very similar. Sometimes I see peak oilers getting exercised about the differences of different grades of crude (all of which are rather strong substitutes and correlated in price to each other, with overall crude moves being much more significant to producers and refiners than the small intergrade diff movements). Refiners care about that more than producers of course since they live in the passthrough world. But in any case, even within the (too much kvetched about) world of different quality grades, Brent and WTI are very, very close physically. And economically, I see cargoes of WTI (or DSW) trading in Rotterdam within about $.10 to $.50 of physical Brent cargoes.
6. Anyhow, crude is a lot less wonky in terms of location differentials than natural gas. (Look at the massive differences of NBP and HH and JKM indices. Or even some of the big blowouts within NAM we have occasionally, Marcellus/Canada/Waha versus Henry Hub. From the much more expensive oceanic transport or storage. And seasonality. And weather correlation.) Still, crude location diffs something to watch for. Especially in Alberta or ND. But I would write a valuation model with WTI projection and then a diff projection on top of it. With strip being the basis. But the ability to do “goal seek” to look for what WTI gives NPV=0, or just scenarios for how the project looks in $40 WTI or $60 or the like (nice round numbers for thinking about…there is also the issue of strip moving slightly, whereas a round number doesn’t, while project still being discussed.)
“CNBC Broadcast News fluffheads”.
That made me laugh – even if you are more polite to these clowns that I usually am.
It’s not the “fluffheads” but the Broadcast News (movie) where I sink the shank. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broadcast_News_(film) [All about how you look on TV. Look at all the spokesmodels on Fox TV…and I say that as a conservative…but so obvious what they are doing.]
7. Of course there are also local indices for crude. Platts and Argus and ICE and CME and the like (I get confused who’s who) publish some different prices for WTI-Houston, WTI-Midland, Clearbrook-MN (a ND proxy), Mars (GOM medium feild), West Canadian Select (tar sands proxy), WCS-Houston, etc. Probably not useful either for large scale econ regressions or for casual discussion. Except when you actually want to talk about location or quality diffs as the subject. Or prices that marginal producers in a given basin are getting locally (which affects activity).
Platts and Argus etc. are rather pricy to subscribe to. I do not know if Dr. Hamilton and Dr. Chinn get free access to things like this.
Most of the time I like to think I can think for myself and can weigh things out better than most people, but occasionally I like to have my thoughts verified (reset??), to see if my viewing lens of the world hasn’t gotten blurred or fuzzy. Am I the only person who looks at this Rittenhouse Judge, Bruce Schroeder, and sees “NARCISSIST” written on his forehead in bright neon orange capitol letters?? I mean like, a screaming narcissist??? Requesting and appreciate some feed back from our good group here.
Do you think Kenosha, WI should burn if Mr. R. is acquitted?
Think about it.
If it’s suburban white neighborhoods that knowingly look away from police abuse of Blacks?? Yeah, I do need to think about it. My immediate thought is, I’m doubtful I’ll be crying while it happens.
Then there’s one obvious solution: Put a murderer behind bars for 20+ years and we don’t have to worry about anything “burning”.
Did I watch “Falling Down” and identify with the character of William Foster?? Yes, on some levels I identified with the character. But it’s a fictional film people can vicariously burn off steam with. It’s not real life.
8. Other wonky thing that can come up sometimes is prompt versus spot. In general doesn’t make much difference. As they are very correlated. But EIA tends to refer to spot prices and media refers to the prompt. (And I don’t know a free way to look at spot, whereas CME publishes the prompt and other futures contracts pricing.) But casual discussion can sometimes have talk past each other when referring to EIA spot versus media-reported prompt. Also, see casual confusion when the contract rolls. It’s not that price moved as much as people think in a day. Just that the prompt rolled. But if you compare the prompt+1 (old) to the new prompt, move was much smaller.
OK, Anonymous, now you have gotten too obscure for me. Maybe Steven K. knows this, but I do not know what the distinction is between “spot” and “prompt,” which makes me suspect a lot others here also mystified on this one as well. Care to clarify, please, even as you say their difference is nor a big deal?
Professor Rosser:
Sorry, not trying to snow you or be super technical. Am not a trader, just an educated reader of the financial news. Terms are common in commodities.
Spot is delivered today. Literally. And not how the millenials say that word. (But delivery just means you own it in a warehouse or a tank, usually.)
Like 15NOV.
Prompt means the price for the futures contract that is the nearest to expiration in the futures strip. Delivered whenever the contract requires it (right now we are on December21, which is delivered some time in DEC). For the WTI contract, trading stops on day 25 of the month before. So after 25NOV, you can’t trade DEC21 futures contract. We “roll” to JAN22 contract as the prompt. You can trade that ahead of time of course. Can trade the whole strip of monthly contracts out several years. But the “prompt” is the nearest futures contract. Delivery for the DEC contract happens during DEC.
See here: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.contractSpecs.html
What you see on the TV or in most news stories is the prompt. EIA time series (like just download them in Excel) are often spot time series.
These are common terms in commodities and used by all the financial markets, EIA, crude buyers and sellers, etc. E.g.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php
Sorry, second link from EIA was mistaken duplication of first one. Here’s correct second link with a little discussion of “prompt”, by EIA.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/includes/energyfutures_explain.php
OK, thanks, Anonymous. That is reasonably clear, and I did not know the distinction, but it makes sense.
AKA “front month”.
From “EIA”:
Prompt-month, also called near-month, refers to the futures contract that is closest to expiration and is usually for delivery in the next calendar month (e.g., prompt-month contracts traded in February are typically for delivery in March).
9. Several large refiners (XOM, Phillips, Koch, etc.) publish “daily bulletins” that give their spot price for crude from/at specific locations as well. Can be useful when getting into kerfuffles about how much lower price one gets for 50 API crude versus 45. (Answer, not much difference.)
E.g. https://www.phillips66.com/customers/crude-oil
“Phillips 66 purchases crude oil and condensate through its North American Supply and Trading business operation.”
I had to analyze whether its Canadian/US intercompany pricing was consistent with arm’s length pricing. They had a rather worthless report from some overpriced Big Four moron and asked me to write something that actually made sense.
Get your kicks on Route 66!
Looks like Barkley Rosser is as prescient as always. Copmala Harris at VP is “a keeper”:
https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-insiders-annoyed-with-white-house-treatment-of-vp-report-2021-11
Remember, she’s tough, she was “that girl on the bus”, getting driven to the suburban school must have been “hell”. Love to hear stories about her rides on the public school bus from…….. anyone “who was there”.
I see a new and improved campaign slogan from 2016’s “I’m With Me”. Are you ready for the excitement of 2024’s new campaign slogan?!?!?!?!?!
“I’m Not Going To Jail And I Was Never Indicted”
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1460269428139077651
Those are major bragging rights. Never mind being a great conversation starter at social gatherings.
See, as everyone here knows, I’m kinda a weirdo. You know what I would have advised Hillary on a 2024 campaign slogan?? “I Could Have Gone To Work Every Working Morning (3 days a week??) With Chuck Schumer Until The Day I Died, But My False Ego And Pathological Lying Got in The Way”. Ok, ok, ok, ok, it’s a little long. But isn’t that more positive??
Moses,
What is with you going off on some of your least fav women here off-topic? I note that while she did make some false statements over the course of her career, referring to H. Clinton as having engaged in “Pathological Lying” is just completely of the wall. I think the grand total of her documented lies over the entiretly of her career is less than what Trump did in single days during the final period of his presidency.
Gosh, at least you did not accuse her of eating fancy ice cream in public or of being “senile.”
I want you to imagine something. Imagine a woman, who faked an Arkansas accent even though she was raised in the midwest and got a law degree from Yale. What kind of lie would you imagine she’s incapable of telling??~~~if we just saved time and didn’t mention all the others?? And you wonder where the fertile ground is which cats like the orange abomination sprout out of.
There’s nothing wrong with eating ice cream. The point is everything has a context. This context is wider than your p*ss ant world or your vanity mirror that steals time away from your wife Barkley. You don’t flaunt expensive salon type ice cream in front of millions of people at the early portion of a recession which had the potential to be worse than the Great Depression~~UNless you are the type person totally wrapped up in yourself and your own immediate circle. The immediate aforementioned mental illness you should be well acquainted with, but apparently unable to mentally step outside of for perspective.
Wow, you are going even further off the deep end here. Not going to ask why.
As it is, about all you have for the supposed “Pathological Lying” by H. Clinton is that she supposedly “faked an Arkansas accent.” Did she? I have not heard about that, and certainly everybody there knew where she was from. She has told some lies, most notably one a claim about being in the midst of war action in Bosnia, for which she got roasted an almost uncountable times, especially by the GOP. But then, you like to repeat stuff out of the Trump gang when you go after the older powerful Dem women you have fits about.
And my mentioning fancy ice cream certainly triggered you. Have you not noticed that while this event involving Pelosi was briefly embarrassing for her, basically nobody aside from you has given a phoo about it for quite some time. Why are you so obsessed with this matter? Nobody else cares at all. And Nancy Pelosi managed to get the hard infrastructure bill passed in the House and looks to be going to get the BBB one through, which if it dies it will be in the Senate, not where uber capable she is in charge in the House.
Oh, and are you now going to add my wife to the women you trash? Are you really such low trash?
And are you going to note that I am right that gasoline prices have at a minimum stopped rising even though most of the media keeps blathering on about how awful Biden is because gasoline (much of the media says the “gas” that has you birthing a cow) prices are supposedly still “spiking”?
This seems like a huge problem in the making:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ghost-guns-firearm-kits-bought-125616223.html
How do a trace a murderer where there’s no serial number on the gun??
Listening to big shot Steve Bannon and his loud mouth attorney. It seems Bannon is going for the incompetent counsel defense. Other than that – Bannon is simply blowing smoke.
Kevin Gough is a racist POS lawyer:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/defense-lawyer-ahmaud-arbery-trial-asks-jesse-jackson-be-removed-court-2021-11-15/
Of course he is trying to defend 3 racist hicks who murdered Ahmaud Arbery for the crime of running while black. As some who also runs – this trial is personal.
The surreal part is watching the camera footage of police consoling the murderers immediately following the crime. Or is it just predictable in a southern state??
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/16/business/germany-gas-pipeline.html
November 16, 2021
Germany suspends approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, sending gas prices soaring.
By Melissa Eddy
BERLIN — A German regulator on Tuesday suspended its certification of Nord Stream 2, an undersea pipeline intended to transport natural gas directly to Germany from Russia that has been the source of a long-running dispute between Berlin, Washington and Brussels.
The action means that the recently completed pipeline will not begin supplying gas to Germany anytime soon, and comes against the backdrop of a politically charged jump in energy prices in Europe and tensions between Moscow and Europe over Belarus and Ukraine.
The news caused a jump in European natural gas markets, with the price of U.K. natural gas futures soaring more than 9 percent on Tuesday.
It also comes as Germany finds itself in political limbo, with Chancellor Angela Merkel, a firm supporter of the pipeline project, reduced to a caretaker role while leaders from the Social Democratic, Green and Free Democratic parties debate the makeup of a new government, one that has the potential to be less favorable to its predecessor’s pet energy project….
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ra08
January 15, 2018
Prices of Oil and Natural Gas, 2017-2021
(Indexed to 2017)
A German regulator on Tuesday suspended its certification of Nord Stream 2…
[ This strikes me as a startlingly nationalist, discriminatory and class-based turn for Germany after and setting aside the era of Angela Merkel. The administrative decision would not have been taken were there not approval by the range of German governors to come. ]
Dishonest nonsense. You are claiming knowledge you simply don’t have. It is entirely possible that the regulator has suspended approval out of ignorance of the next government’s policies rather than foreknowledge. That is entirely appropriate if the pileline decision is a political one.
I find it bizarre that a mouthpiece for the Chinese government like you would squawk about nationalism.
So you want them to reward Putin for murdering people in Ukraine and bringing a commercial airliner down killing all on board?? Which part of Europe will Putin annex next after taking Crimea by force?? Did you think Putin was going to share the next annexation of Europe with Xi Jinping??
“This strikes me as a startlingly nationalist, discriminatory and class-based turn for Germany after and setting aside the era of Angela Merkel. The administrative decision would not have been taken were there not approval by the range of German governors to come.”
Please get your facts straight (to a certain extent I understand that you may have problems with western legal systems): The Bundesnetzagentur sets legal requirements for the operation power plants, pipelines. transmission lines etc.
Theses requirements were known but the Russians try to avoid some of them (the company which is operating the economic aspects is not in Germany, but Switzerland). The ok of the German government required compliance with the Bundesnetzagentur. ATM everything is BAU in Germany.
JohnH is praising some Iranian program that used the proceeds from oil which used to be heavily subsidized but the subsidy was reduced some 10 years ago. Now JohnH claims the rebates presented over $16000 per month for each Iranian household. Now that would be one progressive program.
Alas JohnH just made up this claim. Now it turns out some accounts have the subsidy being 280,000 Iranian rials per month. That sounds like a lot until one realizes that this translated into less than $7 a month at current exchange rates.
Foreign currency and exchange rates are things poor JohnH never understood.
Now $7 a month is nice but it sure ain’t $16000.
I went and re-read JohnH’s link where he thinks he pulled this $16,000 plus figure out. It actually said $1.50 per day, which by my arithmetic is only $45 per month – a figure a 2011 Brookings report used. But of course Brooking and I are centrists who do not care about the poor according to JohnH.
Now a 2018 report notes this rebate program was paying out $9.80 a month. Again – the author of that report must also be another uncaring centrist.
If pgl had actually read the piece that I linked to TWICE, he would have seen the following:
“ Iran’s nationwide cash-transfer policy emerged out of heavy cuts to gas and bread subsidies made by then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in late 2010. The monthly transfer amounted to 29% of median household income, or about $1.50 extra per head of household, per day.
(In the US, that would be an extra $16,389.64, well above the standard scheme of $1,000 a month proposed by many basic income advocates.)
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/05/iran-introduced-a-basic-income-scheme-and-something-strange-happened/
But that obscures the point. While US is talking about climate change the same way that most people talk about the weather. (Everybody complains about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.) Economists talk about raising fossil fuel costs via a carbon tax, but everyone knows that that is politically infeasible, because the public will throw out any bum that votes to raise gas prices in a meaningful way with that carbon tax.
Politicians will talk and economists will propose, but nothing will happen until the public is offered a BIG carrot.
Meanwhile Iran did something almost unheard of. Iran raised gas prices significantly…and took the proceeds and implanted a significant universal basic income…in terms of Iranian purchasing power, of course.
If Iran can do it, why can’t the US?
Now pgl will throw more BS against the wall and try to make some of it stick. Anything to avoid discussing the Achilles heel of carbon taxes—public buy-in. Why does a “progressive liberal” want to torpedo a discussion of getting public buy-in needed to implement climate change policies?
“that obscures the point.”
I can use that line about everyone of your lies. Economists are not talking about using the proceeds from a carbon tax to give to the poor? Dude – they have been for over 20 years. Just because you are too dishonest to note this. DAMN!
Let’s do this in per annum terms to show you are not only comparing apples to oranges but also comparing a bushel of apples to a single orange.
Iran took the proceeds of charging near market prices of oil to give households about $500 a year. Your source is claiming the proceeds of a carbon tax can give Americans almost $200 thousand a year, which would translate into about 100% of US GDP.
That is not credible and one would think even the dumbest person ever would see that. But not JohnH. Which is why I say your incessant stupidity is an embarrassment to all thinking progressives.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=IXud
January 30, 2018
Consumer Prices and Consumer Prices less food & energy for Euro Area and United States, 2017-2021
(Percent change)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=IXuE
January 30, 2020
Consumer Prices and Consumer Prices less food & energy for Euro Area and United States, 2020-2021
(Percent change)
[ I would argue that lower rates of price increase in the Euro Area, as opposed to the US, reflect lower supply-chain constraints in the Euro Area. ]
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ISWp
January 30, 2018
Consumer Prices for United Kingdom, France, Germany and United States, 2017-2021
(Percent change)
Kevin Drum has a post comparing Euro and US price inflation.
Here is the Kevin Drum post:
https://jabberwocking.com/is-high-inflation-happening-only-in-the-united-states/
He links to something Paul Krugman wrote but I cannot get past the NYTimes firewall. Maybe you can for us!
Unleash the Cra…Billy: https://twitter.com/MOAR_Drilling/status/1346532124581634053
Non-OPEC(+) production has a history of destabilizing the (intermittently effective) cartel. See 1986, 2014, late 2018, etc.
OPEC+ v. the frackers in cartoons. Funny and a lot more accurate than the usual nonsense we get from JohnH!
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/12/opinion/inflation-us-europe-covid.html
November 12, 2021
Wonking Out: How global is inflation?
By Paul Krugman
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that consumer prices in the United States rose 6.2 percent over the past year. Critics of the Biden administration jumped on the report like football players piling onto a fumbled ball. But does high inflation by recent standards (what we’re seeing now is nothing compared to the 1970s — or the 1940s) reflect a failure of U.S. policy? Is it even a uniquely American phenomenon?
As it happens, Eurostat, the statistical agency of the European Union, has released a flash estimate — that is, a preliminary estimate based on incomplete data — for annual inflation in the euro area. Like the U.S. report, this estimate showed inflation hitting a much higher level than we’ve become accustomed to. But the European inflation rate, at 4.1 percent, was considerably lower than the U.S. rate.
There are two ways to look at the Europe-U.S. comparison. Should we focus on the similarities or the differences?
Well, I spent a good part of the past two days exploring various rabbit holes in an attempt to understand why European inflation is lower and ended up concluding that we should mainly stress the similarity of inflation experience. I won’t bore you with all the dead ends I explored. Instead, let me give you the big picture.
Here’s consumer price inflation on a 12-month basis in the United States and the euro area since 2017. In case you’re wondering about the dashed line at the end, Federal Reserve Economic Data doesn’t include the flash estimate, so I extended the euro line to reflect it:
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/11/12/opinion/krugman121121_1/krugman121121_1-jumbo.png?quality=75&auto=webp
Up, up and away.
As you can see, inflation has surged on both sides of the Atlantic. It’s now higher in the United States, but as you can also see, that’s normal: U.S. inflation consistently runs above European inflation. I’ll talk in a second about why.
It’s also helpful to look at one European nation in particular: Germany. The Germans are famously inflation averse (largely because of selective historical memory — everyone knows about the hyperinflation of 1923, far fewer about the deflation that brought you-know-who to power). They also chose not to engage in large-scale spending to promote recovery from the Covid pandemic; there was no German equivalent of the Biden administration’s American Rescue Plan. Yet Germany has seen inflation rise and, in fact, has the highest inflation rate, 4.6 percent, among the largest euro area economies:
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/11/12/opinion/krugman121121_2/krugman121121_2-jumbo.png?quality=75&auto=webp
Germany too.
Why has European inflation risen? For the same reasons it’s higher here. Prices of food and energy, which are set on world markets, have risen sharply everywhere. The interaction of an uneven economic recovery with the lingering effects of the pandemic has led to extensive supply chain problems. In fact, the findings in a European Central Bank survey of businesses sound remarkably similar to the discussion in the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book….
Again, I would argue that supply-chain constraints have been and are less in the Euro Area than in the US. The Euro Area has been much criticized as regionally self-defeating, such as with Greece or Italy unable to readily adjust to recession conditions after 2008. But, the Euro Area has been remarkably successful by logistical standards as a free trade region and China has expressly facilitated this success.
Along with looking the other way while large portions of Ukraine get annexed by Putin. Bravo.
Thanks for posting this. There was a bit of nasty back and forth about Germany’s hyperinflation and Hitler. I added Paul Krugman got it right – it was not the inflation but the following German recession. He writes of late:
‘The Germans are famously inflation averse (largely because of selective historical memory — everyone knows about the hyperinflation of 1923, far fewer about the deflation that brought you-know-who to power).’
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=k82k
January 15, 2018
Industrial Production Index for United Kingdom, France, Germany and United States, 1920-1931
(Indexed to 1920)
Biden signed IIJA yesterday. It was not paid for in any way by an increase in the Federal excise tax for gasoline even though people have been arguing for such an increase for years.
Why no increase? Biden just told us that he told Congress not to even think about it as it would be paid for by mainly the poor and the middle class. He is certainly serious about his campaign pledge to not raise taxes on anyone making less than $400K a year.
https://jabberwocking.com/republican-hysteria-over-the-economy-has-reached-record-levels/
Kevin Drum looks at the details from the latest Survey of Consumer Sentiment finding a partisan divide. Go figure. Of course rsm is going to annoy Kevin Drum about his lack of confidence intervals.
The Guardian reports on some claim from Tax Justice Network that multinationals and other wealthy types are shifting almost $500 billion a year to tax havens:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/16/almost-500bn-lost-to-tax-abuse-by-firms-and-super-rich-in-2021
Now I saw this on LinkedIn in a post from some jerk I will not name who called this report a disgrace with the figures being no resemblance to reality. Look – TJN does not always get the numbers right as this stuff is hard to do given all the secrecy but I have a ton of respect for their efforts. To call these efforts a disgrace is rather telling about this jerk on LinkedIn. No – excusing massive tax evasion is the disgrace.
Typical chart crime from yet another murderous economist, eh?
There should always be consideration of the possible or likely effects on oil supply and prices of US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.
There should always be consideration of the possible or likely effects on Uyghurs and Kazakhs of systematic human rights violations by China.
This has been an interesting thread–thanks Menzie. I especially appreciate the commentary from Anonymous. As a typical braindead American, and the lead-footed driver of a Corolla, I only care about one thing: gas price stickiness lag relative to the movements in the crude stock. Based on the tea leaves, Moses will be boasting about paying $2.99 a gallon by January–or maybe February.
Probably……..sounds about right. Let me fantasize in my children’s type brain it will go back to $1.95 in mid-Jan will you?? You don’t tell a small child that storm clouds are moving in closer from 5 miles off in the horizon while they’re giggling on the local park jungle gym do you???
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-11-17/UK-inflation-hits-10-year-high-bolstering-rate-hike-bets-15gma5sbp9C/index.html
November 17, 2021
UK inflation hits 10-year high, bolstering rate hike bets
People shop at market stalls, with skyscrapers of the City of London financial district seen behind, amid the COVID-19 pandemic in London, UK, January 15, 2021.
Inflation in the UK surged to a 10-year high last month as household energy bills rocketed, data showed Wednesday, bolstering expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will raise interest rates next month.
Consumer prices rose by 4.2 percent in annual terms in October, leaping from a 3.1-percent increase in September. Both the BoE and a Reuters poll of economists – none of whom had predicted such a big increase – had pointed to a reading of 3.9 percent.
“Today’s inflation data will reinforce the Bank of England’s resolve to act,” Yael  Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said.
The Office for National Statistics said household energy bills were the biggest driver of inflation following the lifting of a regulatory cap on bills last month, with gas prices paid by consumers increasing by 28.1 percent in the year to October.
“A substantial winter surge in inflation remains probable with the rising cost of imported raw materials and higher energy prices likely to lift inflation to around 5 percent next year,” said Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce.
The BoE is expected to become the first of the world’s major central banks to raise rates since the coronavirus pandemic swept the global economy, with investors and economists increasingly predicting that will happen on December 16.
On Monday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said he was “very uneasy” about the inflation outlook and that his vote to keep rates on hold earlier this month, which shocked financial markets, had been a very close one.
On Tuesday, data suggested Britain’s labor market was withstanding the end of the government’s job-protecting furlough scheme, a key factor for the BoE and its decision on rates.
There were signs in Wednesday’s data of further inflation pressure in the pipeline. Prices charged by factories rose by more than expected, up 8 percent compared with October 2020, the sharpest increase since 2011.
Manufacturers’ input costs jumped by 13 percent, the most since 2008, the Office for National Statistics said….
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Fs2n
January 30, 2018
Consumer Prices and Consumer Prices less food & energy for United Kingdom, 2017-2021
(Percent change)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=FrZ0
January 30, 2018
Consumer Prices and Consumer Prices less food & energy for United Kingdom, 2007-2021
(Percent change)
UK core inflation was 2% but is now 3%. That is my summary of your UK FRED graphs.
It would be nice to just have a discussion about the above article.
Crude is continuing to slip, folks. WTI down to $78.60 as of a few minutes ago, and Brent just barely above $80.
So when will anybody in the media notice and the apparent cessation of rising of retail gasoline prices, with even some turning around to decline? So far it is still all kinds of people blathering about Biden and Dems deserving all this critiicism for “aharply rising gas prices” (their usage, Moses, not mine). Steven Ratner in NY Times was even going on and on about how he warned the Dems way back of how they needed to do something about inflation. Duh, as duh as noting that there is a correlation between lower inflation and grater degrees of independence of central bankis.