Russia raises the policy rate to 20%, from 9.5%, which was itself raised on 2/11.
As of 1:30 Central Time. [Data time averaged due to long time span; since one reader can’t figure that out, I add detail figure below, one year’s data – 8am Pacific, MDC].
This stemmed the drop in the ruble, which had been down as much as 30% for near month futures, and 40% at the outset of trading.
It would be interesting to know what foreign exchange reserves look like. As discussed before, liquid forex reserves are less than international reserves at $630 billion at end-January.
Clearly 20% is not sustainable; either it throws the economy into recession (if sustained), or is not considered credible (exactly because market participants don’t believe the government will endure such a recession).
Also, from ForexLive: ” the Russian finance ministry is reportedly set to introduce mandatory FX sales for companies. That being Russian companies will have to sell 80% of their FX revenue. This ties together with the headline move by the Bank of Russia to curb attempts to destabilise the ruble.”
Update, 2/28, 12am Pacific:
5 year CDS on Russian sovereigns are up, as are 10 years spreads on US Treasurys
Putin’s troops sharing love with the residents, [ exaggeratedly clears throat ] ethnic Russians of Kharkiv. The “expert” on Russia, of Harrisonburg way, has told us that Kharkiv residents will all be bored to tears by the invasion of their city. Listen to the guy in the video talking as the Russian troops share their love for the ethnic Russians of Kharkiv.
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-kharkiv-fighting/31726554.html
I don’t know about you people, but I sure am glad the residents of Kharkiv know how to accept “public displays of affection”. Kind of warms the heart doesn’t it??
some might say the pure ukrainian despises the russian untermensche, a white supremacy thing.
13 million ethnic russians inside ukraine…..
kiev started a new religion ala henry viii to clarify their disdain for russians…
and the vix is lower than the last variant scare
while the west could be nuked to dust on wednesday
hitler was primo to ukraines in 1942…
That is because the Russian treated them badly in the 1930’s rapid industrialization. Then the Nazis did. So, no, that line doesn’t work.
The “free land” campaign in the 60’s was moving ethnic Russians into Ukrainian and southern territories where the land was depleted by the pseudo -famines. Russian ancestry is much more pronounced in the Ukraine than in 1929.
Gee wrapping up racism in word salad
Anonymous,
You really should stick to talking about the US oil industry where you generally at least report from official publications what they say, thus not making a complete fool of yourself. Almost everything you wrote here has serious problems, but I shall simply focus on one item, a matter I have previously warned you not to make your inaccurate and Putin propaganda claimes.
This involves your claim that “kiev [sic, spelling] started a new religion ala henry viii to clarlfy their disdain for russians. Gag.
now it is true that only in 2018 did the Patriarch of Constantinople officially recognize the separate autocephaly of the Ukrainian orthodox Church from the Russian one, which had long been recognized at as over it. But the reality is that the at that time this involved unifying three separate Ukrainian Orthodox churches that had existed for very long periods of time, even as they were not fully recognized by Constantinople and were for long periods of time suppressed by the Moscow-based Russian Orthodox Church, with this suppression having the support of the Soviet government during the period of Soviet rule. But these three churches predated that period.
Curiously enough the date of the earliest Ukrainian Orthodox Church to view itself as separate from the fule of the Muscovy-based Metropolitan, was even before the time of Henry VIII, in 1448, when a Metropolitan was selected for Kyiv against the wishes of the Muscovy Metropolitian. After Russia took control of the city, starting in 1685, Moscow then took control of that position, but by then the separate church had come to exist around the countryside, with two others coming into existence later, now unified. There have been ongoing struggles ovetr which church controls which buildings.
When Ukraine became independent after the end of the USSR, the Metropolitian of Kyiv declared the renewed independence of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. It would take until 2018 for this to be recognized by the Patriarch of Constantinple (how Istanbul for any of you who do not know that ).
Moses,
My report about boredom was about live reports from both Kyiv and Kharkiv as the invasion began. in the former, nobody was on the streets. In the latter initially people were acting like it was a normal day and engaging in normal commuting going to work. It remains the case, even as Kharkiv is now under serious bombardment and resisting the current attack, that it contains far more Russian speakers than any of the other large cities of Ukraine, and if indeed Russia does succeed in conquering the whole country will adjust to that more readily than other areas. Indeed in 2014, the city hall of Kharkiv was briefly taken over by people like who did the same in Donettsk and Luhansk, but they got kicked out by local police. kharkiv nearly became a separatist republic at that time.
I reported several times here that opinion in Kharkiv had changed and had become anti-Putin and not in favor of a Russian invasion, with the pathetic performance of the DPR and LPR in conteast to the relative peace and prosperity in Kharkiv the main reason. But the mayor also expressed friendship with Russia and how many people in the city have relatives and ongoing activities with people across the border.
I am not retracting a single thing I have written here about Kharkiv, even though yet again you have decided to waste everybody’s time with yet another one of your alf-baked efforts to score gotcha points on me. Sometimes you succeed, but a lot of the time you fall on yuur face,. spouting outright false information or often distorted or cherry picked information, rarely admitting you have done so when it is pointed out, much less apologizing.
Is you life so vacuous and meaningless that you have to engage in this moral garbage in order to fill it, Moses? I should feel sorry for you, you are so pathetic, but obviously I am basically too annoyed to have that sorry feeling predominate. But you really are wasting everybody’s time with this ongoing garbage of yours.
It’s tough being an “expert” on Russia when people remember what you said/wrote isn’t it Junior?? Life is so unfair. You need a blankey and a cherry flavored children’s aspirin??
Moses,
I have no problem with people remembering what I wrote. I have made some incorect forecasts, and I own up to them when they do not come out true. You OTOH do not own up to your many mistakes. Mine, as noted recently, tend to be about forecasts. Yours are about current and past facts. You do not know what you are talking about a lot, but you keep at it and do not admit being wrong when it is pointed out.
You keep writing it like it is a mock but, yes, Moses, I do happen to be an internationally recognized expert on this stuff, and you are not. So why do you keep wasting peoples’ time here with all these half-baked efforts to catch me in this or that gotcha weong forecast? This most recent comment has absolutely zero substancde to it, just you again emboldening words for absolutely no reason.
Actually my theory on what is going on when you embolden words, since it has been pointed out repeatedly that this is usually a sign that what you are writing is either wrong or just silly, is that you get into doing that when you get all excited after imbibing a bit too much of your cheap wine. Is that it, Mosrs? What other explanation is there for this nonsense out of you?
More of the “boredom” and “apathy” of Kharkiv residential areas, as Putin strikes residential areas of Kharkiv, assumably what Barkley Rosser labels “ethnic Russians”. Just hit the play button in the lower left part of the 50 second video. All of which except the very last portion are residential areas of Kharkiv:
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60542877?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621d3803ec502b53cd4802af%26WATCH%3A%20Kharkiv%20and%20Chernihiv%20hit%20by%20heavy%20shelling%262022-02-28T21%3A02%3A10.066Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:269e8029-b4fa-4d24-af60-7fb6e42cbf6e&pinned_post_asset_id=621d3803ec502b53cd4802af&pinned_post_type=share
Now I would like all of the readers here, to measure up the violence taking place in the city of Kharkiv in the video above, with this comment from self-labeled “expert” on Russia, Barkley Rosser:
“According to a long story in today’s WaPo, people there are pretty calm, although according to you they should be running around freaking out. It may be that they are all a bunch of fools. But in fact I suspect another element of this is that because the city is dominated by ethnic Russians, they figure that life will go back to normal if they get conquered. But all accounts they do not support Putin or an invasion. But if it happens, they will move on.”
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/02/predictions-oil-prices-and-recoveries-and-recessions#comment-268846
Barkley Rosser’s comments related to Kharkiv were made, only 5 days ago, on February 23, as you can see from the permalink—“But if it happens they will move on”
BTW, I get less of a “kick” (enjoyment) out of pointing out how horrendously wrong Barkley Junior’s comments are than people might possibly imagine (although I do admit a part of me enjoys showing Barkley up for his true nature). But I think I am not that different than Menzie, in the individual sense that, I get tired of people extemporizing on topics they don’t know, to appear more knowledgable than they in fact are.
Why does the first chart not show what the first sentence claims?
rsm: Just for you (you are apparently the only person confused), I have added a detail of the first figure.
and rsm cannot seem to understand why mr market flushed him and his brother out. rsm, there is a reason you were unable to make money in the market, and basically lost your shirt. you are far too rigid in your view of the world around you. you need to be a bit more adaptable.
Are you too stupid to look at the 2nd graph
And Bruce Hall, Sammy, and Ed Hanson arrive in this thread, blaming this attack on the Ruble on George Soros and “the Jewish cabal” in 3….. 2….. 1…..
??? You’re usually good for a laugh or two, but you’ve pick up the ad hominem infection from pgl.
You are such a little cry baby. Face it you are racist whose only talent is wiping the button of TRUMP and Putin. But you refuse to take any responsibility. Weasel
Interesting reading, from Financial Times:
https://amp.ft.com/content/526ea75b-5b45-48d8-936d-dcc3cec102d8
I recommend reading the ENTIRE thing, because it gets more interesting the farther down the article you go.
great link, thanks. i have access to the financial times, and think they are the absolute best when it comes to international coverage of world events, especially economics. my only gripe is that sometimes the articles are a bit too wordy. in a twitter world, their goal of complete discussion leads to fewer clicks, i am afraid. but just like the wsj, their business writers are great. and you don’t have to deal with the unethical morons of the wsj editorial board.
It is a well done summary of the banking/exchange situation for Russia. I think the key paragraph, which was highlighted in the article, is:
Russia may accept payments for its exports in renminbi and increase imports paid in renminbi from China and possibly other countries accepting renminbi. As renminbi-based payments will most likely be conducted by institutions outside the immediate influence sphere of the West, this would work. I’m not sure if China is willing to undermine the West’s efforts to isolate Russia, but it may. It would mean reorganising Russia’s international financial and economic relations, but that may be something it has been pursuing in any event.
It is, indeed, something that Russia and China are pursing. China would love to expand its monetary influence globally and this certainly helps them begin the process of challenging the dollar. While China has always been low-key about confrontation with the U.S., if they sense weakness on Biden’s part regarding reacting to China aiding Russia, they may accept the risk. “Taking Taiwan back” has been their stated objective and they know that it would be viewed in a similar vein as Russia attacking Ukraine with similar sanctions. So, the question becomes when, not if, China takes such action. The “when” is the point they feel they can hurt any country that attempts to sanction them with just as much economic pain. That could be in the form of withhold critical supplies/products or using their military to disrupt trade.
Bruce Hall: Don’t expect too much succor from China, at least this round. From FoxNews:
Insofar as I know, PBoC has not made clear that Russia can access its reserves held with PBoC; see ET
Maybe Putin has given Bruce Hall a new role…special envoy to China.. yea Putin is getting desperate for help
That Fox News account on how Xi is also cutting your boy Putin is assured to set little Brucie off. Oh my more pointless cursing from Putins poodle!
Ina separate post, Bruce, you stated that Hitler and Stalin (I’ll leave out Mao for now) cared little for economics. Unless the history you learned is vastly different from mine, that’s not true.
The Soviets, under Stalin developed a series of Five Year Plans stretching from the late 20’s to well past his death. The plans dealt with almost all aspects of the Soviet economy. The first, as I recall, focused on development of industry and improved agricultural production. All those tanks the Soviets used to send the Nazis scurrying back to Germany did not appear based solely on communist dogma or on Stalin’ desire to have more tanks. If Stalin didn’t care about economics, that’s because he relied on economists and economic planners who did.
Hitler’s successes were initially buoyed by an economic recovery that made military conquests possible. Shirer, in Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, wrote, “The foundation of Hitler’s success in the first years rested not only in his triumphs in foreign affairs…but on Germany’s economic recovery, which in party circles and even among economists abroad was hailed as a miracle.’
Unemployment dropped from six million to one million, and national production doubled from 1932 to 1937, as did national income.
Safe to say Hitler understood that conquering the Soviet Union would require more the idiocy he spouted in Mein Kampf and to his followers who certainly found him more attractive given those economic successes.
Also safe to say, there were numerous German commanders on the Russian Front who consistently asked where all those Soviet tanks were coming from.
“The Soviets, under Stalin developed a series of Five Year Plans stretching from the late 20’s to well past his death.”
My undergraduate thesis was on Lenin’s New Economic Policy. Bruce Hall of course would have no clue what these policies were about as Kelly Anne Conway refuses to share information on this topic with dimwitted Bruce.
If you want to call what the Soviets did ‘economics’, well, sure. Leave out markets, prices and private ownership et voila! Soviet economics.
Non-capitalist counties aren’t (weren’t) concerned with use of resources, the production of goods and services, growth of production, scarcity, employment, health, education, et. al.?
That was your Econ exposure at Princeton?
Even with the hot blonde who sat in front of me, my state university Econ 1A class was apparently a bit more expansive than yours
That was my work in Hungary, guy. You did it in the classroom, I did it in the field.
You worked in a communist economic system, not a capitalist one. But economics was not involved. Sure, guy.
Hey, guy, so no country has an economy unless it meets your definition of economics? Please direct me to the site where you—or some guy you approve of— correctly defines “economics”.
As I said, Noneconomist:
“If you want to call what the Soviets did ‘economics’, well, sure. Leave out markets, prices and private ownership et voila! Soviet economics.”
What do you want to know about the system? I am pretty clear on how it worked in practice.
Btw, the econ exposure was at Haverford as an undergrad and Columbia as a grad.
I found what I learned there to be woefully lacking in helping me understand the dynamics I saw in post-communist Hungary. I therefore developed the Three Ideology Model, including conservative theory, to better help model and understand the situation. This model, now close to twenty years old, has held up very well, both in explanatory and predictive terms.
I write about these topics. Today, it’s about the Biden Doctrine and how it relates to liberal and conservative ideology in the Three Ideology Model. If you want to subscribe to my email list, you can do it at info@princetonpolicy.com
you read the entire article, and you think that is the key paragraph? i think you need to improve your reading comprehension a bit, bruce.
Would rationing be another economy defense policy?
Certainly could be. Depends on how long things go on and how bad it gets. Russians should have plenty of cheap oil and gas!
Now this is a currency crisis! Now of course Princeton Steve like a little parrot is trying to capture this in one of his pet words – recession, suppression, polly want a cracker!
Two things to applaud. Russian tennis star https://nypost.com/2022/02/25/russian-tennis-star-andrey-rublev-speaks-on-ukraine-invasion/condemn's Putin’s invasion:
https://nypost.com/2022/02/25/russian-tennis-star-andrey-rublev-speaks-on-ukraine-invasion/
And Zelensky telling the US: “I don’t need a ride. I need ammunitions”.
Already the wast majority of Russians are against this invasion. Now there will be some serious consequences for all to feel – especially the rich. So nice to have a competent President in the White House. The political cost to Russia is already huge, now the weakening of their economy begins.
By simply giving Putin more rope to hang himself with, Biden has succeeded in several major strategic goals that the Orange disaster failed with. Germany just announced a drastic increase in military spending. The Nordstrom 2 pipeline is dead and Europe is shifting away from dependence on Russian hydrocarbons. In that process the building of renewable energy is taking front seat both at individual and utility level. Russia is more isolated and NATO/Europe more united than ever – following the lead of US. Simply by being competent, Biden has accomplished major US strategic policy goals that has eluded past Presidents, and were made much harder by the mistakes of the Orange disaster.
Germany’s allies need to get busy providing substitutes for Russian natural gas. It’s a heavy lift, because the infrastructure to deliver substitutes is inadequate to the task. Germany decided to do the right thing and is vulnerable. Future cohesion in the alliance would be fostered by a real, expensive show of good will. Any delay will increase the risk to Germany and to the cohesion of the alliance.
Qatar has a whole lot of natural gas. So do we but we need to spend a ton to get it across the Atlantic – something of course that Bruce Hall never understood. But even THE RICK Stryker seems to be clueless why we have to liquify our natural gas before shipping it.
“Germany decided to do the right thing and is vulnerable.”
Ukraine did the same thing, when they gave up their nukes. look where it got them. the west did not hold up their end of the bargain, which was to protect them. on the other hand, russia was also supposed to protect them and did worse, by invading. this episode will have long lasting repercussions on our ability to persuade other nations to give up nukes. it is under this guise that Belarus is considering moving nukes back into its territory. khazakstan could be next.
Biden is doing a good job and this invasion is costing Putin greatly. Which is exactly why the Usual Suspects (Trump, Pompeo, Bruce Hall) are going out of their way to suggest Biden is doing awful. Of course we all see through their disgusting lies but it has become the only cards they can play.
trump avoided war through appeasement during his 4 years. why in the world would putin run a costly war with trump, when trump gave him everything he wanted for free? any republican who claims to be a follower of reagan should be extremely embarrassed by the foreign policy trump maintained the past four years. to see many of those republicans showing support for putin should appall anybody who lived in the 1980s. bizarro world.
Trump did his best to terminate NATO. Trump did his best to not arm Ukraine. Of course Trump is even incompetent at being Putin’s pet poodle.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/germany-hikes-defense-spending-over-2-of-gdp-over-russian-invasion
Remember Trump’s excuse for undermining NATO was that Germany never spent 2% of its GDP on defense spending. Even Faux News has figured out that Biden has gotten Germany to do more than 2%. Faux Business News admits to this even as Putin fan boy claims Biden is a failure. Putin’s poodles have been trained to lie for their food.
There has been a never ending US cry for NATO countries to spend more on their military for at least 20 years. Biden is the one who got it done, not the Orange disaster. Same with getting out of Afghanistan – Biden is the one who got it done, not the Orange disaster. But Faux news has learned that the realities don’t count for their brain washed audience – just make a claim and their cult minions will repeat it as a mantra. Biden failure, Biden failure, Biden failure.
Just wait until the State of the Union tonight. I will bet it will be remembered as Biden’s Chamberlin speech.
Steven Kopits: “Chamberlain”. Weren’t you predicting a “V” recovery in 2009, and a new recession if oil exceeded $100? Why yes you were. Excuse me if I do not take your prognostications to heart.
Indeed, Europe was plunged into a brutal recession starting in Q3 2011 and lasting until Q1 2013. This was a long and difficult recession. If you believe Scott Sumner, it was caused by a 0.25% increase in interest rates.
I think it was an oil shock.
The US did not go into recession. I wonder why. What was happening to US oil and gas production at the time?
https://cepr.org/content/euro-area-business-cycle-dating-committee-announcements
As for the ‘V” shaped recovery, that’s what your graph says. I think I was wrong at the time. You know why? Because I did not know the difference between a recession and a depression.
I do now.
Do you?
Steven Kopits: You characterized a “V” shape for 2009. No way was that a V shape.
It is on your graph.
Steven Kopits: There is no V associated with the 2009 recovery. There is not a single person in the world that still has a few operable neurons that believes that. There is possibly a case for a 2020 V. But I was criticizing your call on the 2009 recovery — and you were wrong (both on the shape of recovery, and new recession if $100 oil).
According to the IMF latest database (Oct 2021?), GDP had fully recovered by 2011, making the recession look pretty garden variety on paper if that’s the metric we use. On the other hand, by most other metrics, the economy did not recover until cc 2015 or so, seven years later.
I thought the Biden speech was not so bad. I was particularly impressed by the strong support for Ukraine. Now, let’s get some airpower into play and level that row of hardware on its way to Kyiv. Or as Former Secy of Defense William Cohen said yesterday of the column: “They are sitting ducks out there.”
You can see the Oligarchs/Hedge Fund/money laundering dark money bubble imploding. Gonna be a number of hedgies coming up dead. Turning states evidence and seeking asylum in the West from Russian counter intelligence will be interesting for children of the Oligarchs. The Trump Organization is in the deep. I wonder if they will try to get in front of the line. When the components turn on each other, the political ponzi con ends. Then bodies of politicians start washing up as bloated corpses.
The BBC suggests Russian reserves are vulnerable because some are held abroad. Mostly in China,but elsewhere, too. Gold is held in Russia, but not very liquid.
So much for the Gold Miners Council claiming gold is ‘liquid and agile’. How wait – the hot gold digging chick in their commercials is agile in bed. Only use of gold Putin really appreciates.
the link moses provided to the ft story above gives a very nice description of where those assets are, and how vulnerable they are. good read, i recommend.
One has to admire Zelensky. He has filed the application for Ukraine to join the European Union:
https://news.yahoo.com/zelensky-signs-eu-membership-application-174235909.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
Next up should be Ukraine joining NATO. If that pisses off Putin – great!
Poland is supporting Ukraine’s entry into the EU. It seems Putin’s iron grip is slipping.
The word from Moscow is that Putin had hoped his invasion would take a couple of days as the Ukrainians would welcome the Russian troops. I guess Trump and his minions thinking Putin was very smart are flat out wrong.
That is one of the problems with being a brutal dictator who kills your opponents. You get to live in a bubble of mirrors. Nobody will ever dare to say that you are wrong – even when everybody knows that you are. The anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine is including a large number of Russian speakers. Even in Russia itself less than 10% supported invading.
Putin looks more and more like a Trumphian coward. Trotting out advisers and generals to show support of decisions that clearly were made by Putin – without any meaningful discussion or evaluation of alternative outcomes. Then he can always say that it was not his fault – his advisers told him. Only question is how many times will Putin double down before he folds.
“Putin looks more and more like a Trumphian coward.”
Yep and Trump fan boys (Tucker Carlson, Bruce Hall, etc) are no Putin fan boys. Basically the same odious behavior.
Pretty gutsy call for a coward, I think. I would call Putin an opportunist, not a coward. Opportunists can be deterred. Cowards do not have to be deterred at all.
Russian military was supposed to overrun Ukraine in 4 days. Every day past that will be humiliating for Putin. It will also reduce his ability to intimidate other countries with threat of military action in the future. The Biden strategy of supplying Ukraine with anti-air and anti-tank weapons, was brilliant. Even Denmark and Sweden has sent anti-tank missiles to Ukraine. In an invasions of a huge country like Ukraine it is a major problem to be denied control of the Air space and free movement in armored vehicles. Even if you manage to take the cities – what are you going to do with that?
So without risking a nuclear confrontation, Biden has already secured that Putin will be substantially weakened when this is all over.
Russian war machine – go f… yourself.
But remember Putin still has his pet poodles such as Bruce Hall. They bark a lot but something tells me they are too old to have any sort of bite.
i am rooting for those in ukraine. but i am afraid this very will is going to get much worse before it gets better. putin has backed himself into a corner now. i can only imagine all of the awful things he may have the army do before it is all said and done. he has a lot of military still sitting in russia, that can be used to inflict significant collateral damage before he says the task is done, and pulls out what remains of his army. he may indeed take his ball and go home, but not before destroying the court on the way out the door.
Yes the current endgame likely is this: destroy Ukraine (as a warning to others) – then pull out from all but the Donbas and let those new “countries” request protection from Russia. There is no way for Russia to hold all of Ukraine, but Donbas could be controlled if they make sure not a lot of Ukraine loyal people stay/return there. Putin will get his buffer zone, but at a huge cost to both Russia and Ukraine. US will have gotten huge political gains at the cost of some swampland in eastern Ukraine (which wasn’t “ours” in the first place). All in all a huge win for Biden, but don’t expect Faux news to let its listeners know that.
Putin is already committing heinous war crimes. Of course Trump and his minions will call this brilliant.
Is it good for Russia to be ‘substantially weaker’? Is the goal the endless punishment of Russia, to throw away the key, as it were? Or will we condition the removal of sanctions on Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine and the handing back on Donbas and Crimea? And tell me, which Russian ruler will do that?
And if they don’t, what then?
Ukraine’s UN Ambassador has some advice for Putin. Follow Hitler’s path in May 1945 and head for a bunker, hide, and eventually commit suicide:
https://historycollection.com/day-history-hitler-withdraws-bunker-1945/
The Russian Ambassador to the UN can only hold his head down in shame.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/community-offers-russian-soldiers-5m-100657370.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
An offer to Russian soldiers if they surrender – crypto currency and amnesty. A lot of these soldiers have no clue why Putin had them invade and maybe already inclined to give up the right. A little bribe in this context is a clever idea.
How about a universal basic income bribe?
A Russian soldier texts him mother noting how horrific the mission Putin sent him on – just before he died. This is heart breaking:
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/mom-its-so-hard-russian-soldier-allegedly-texts-home-details-of-ukraine-invasion
Putin is a lying monster and all of his fan boys should be ashamed of themselves.
Fire up your troops with a lie that is certain to implode the minute they encounter civilians. Putin (the genius?) really must have thought it would be all over in two days. Believing in his own lies – how Trumphian of him.
This is the problem of dictators, isn’t it? First, democratic politicians are chumps, leading you to believe that they will be more passive than they prove to be. (I have written about this over and over and over and over.) Second, your generals will tell you what you want to hear, thereby downplaying risks and considerations and assuring you that the Ukrainians will run like dogs before you. And third, the Ukrainians have put up much stiffer resistance than, I think, even the west expected.
Putin appears to have built his plans quite literally on best case scenarios. One could plan that way, but only in the best case.
Treasury yields are down sharply today, across the curve including bills. Fed funds futures are pricing in only slightly lower odds of rate hikes, with 150-175 bps target range still priced in for year-end. Looks like a big flight to safety bid. S&P only down 1.4% or so, oil up 4.5%, DAX down only 0.7%, so it ain’t a flight from Western markets that drove the bid to Treasuries. Could be hot money front-running Russian money. Or money coming out of funds invested in Russian assets. Either way, looks like a bunch of money. Volume data at the close should be instructive.
Anybody remember the impact on U.S. yields from the Asian crisis? Russia isn’t big enough to have that sized effect, but Russia’s financial woes could have a tiny silver linig for safe-haven markets. Possibly some help for housing through a flattening of the curve relative to fed funds.
I’m having one of my little drinky sessions tonight for mental health (not related to Ukraine/Russia but more related to singular experiences in another country farther eastward). But uhm, don’t worry Menzie, I’m not even at the yellow light much less the red light. But I wanted Menzie and whoever else to know, tonight I wanted to buy the Wisconsin brand lemonade. and they raised the price from $1.08 a bottle to $1.58 a bottle. so that’s where my love of Wisconsin gets cut off. But….. never let it be said Uncle Moses doesn’t tip his hat to the Wisconsin economy and find a way….. I am drinking UNION MADE Miller High Life right now. Hail to the Gods.
I tell you, if there’s a better international news and war journalist out there than Orla Guerin working for BBC, as sure as F haven’t seen them. She is an incredibly capable woman with her nose right on that grindstone 24/7. If you see her on the TV don’t change the damned channel.