IHS-Markit just released its monthly GDP estimate for January, with 0% growth q/q. Bloomberg consensus for February nonfarm payroll shaved down to 400K, from 450K on 2/25.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for February NFP (blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (3/1/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.
From IHS Markit today:
Monthly GDP was flat (0.0%) in January following a similar reading in December. Underlying the flat reading in January were strong cross currents, including a large increase in domestic final sales (mainly personal consumption expenditures) and declines in nonfarm inventory
investment and net exports. …
IHS Markit forecasts 1% q/q growth SAAR, Goldman Sachs tracking estimate at 1.5%. GDPNow release of 3/1 (today) indicates 0% growth in Q1,