IGM-FT Macroeconomists survey for June

Results from the survey (taken June 6-8), re: GDP, prices, recession:

Figure 1: GDP (bold black), potential GDP (gray), CBO projection published May (blue), Survey of Professional Forecasters published May (red), WSJ survey of economists (April), IGM-FT survey of Macroeconomists June survey (sky blue), all in billions Ch.2012$ SAAR, all on log scale. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA (2nd release), CBO (May 2022), SPF (May 2022), IGM-FT survey (June 2022), NBER, and author’s calculations.

Note that, unlike previous episodes, the IGM-FT median survey and the SPF survey differ noticeably in terms of the levels of GDP. The WSJ mean and IGM-FT median don’t differ much (for end-2022), but that hides the fact that the IGM-FT forecast incorporates the Q1 negative growth which was not known as of the WSJ April survey. Hence, in this sense the IGM-FT median forecast represents a considerably more optimistic outlook than represented by WSJ and SPF respondents.

The CBO forecast is more optimistic than the other forecasts — but it’s important to recall the CBO forecast was locked down using data up to March 2nd (which is why it’s listed as May [Mar]) in the graph.

Interestingly, using the SPF or IGM-FT forecasts and the CBO measure of potential GDP, one doesn’t see a big positive output gap either now or by year’s end. Taken literally, this suggests demand push factors are not the key to the inflationary surge. Of course, CBO’s estimate could be wrong (i.e., over-estimated). One can’t argue that that the demand surge took place against a potential GDP level that was overestimated, as the May 2022 vintage has higher levels than the July 2021 vintage, at least over 2021.

The average of 10th/90th percentile range the IGM-FT respondents provided is shown below.

Figure 2: GDP (bold black), potential GDP (gray), CBO projection published May (blue), IGM-FT survey of Macroeconomists June survey (sky blue), average of 90th and 10th percentile (lilac +), all in billions Ch.2012$ SAAR, all on log scale. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA (2nd release), CBO (May 2022), IGM-FT survey (June 2022), NBER, and author’s calculations.

As for the likelihood of recession, here’s where the respondents place the likely start date.

Source: IGM-FT survey (June 2022).

The modal response is 2023Q1-Q2; interestingly, this is earlier than 2023Q3-Q4 as predicted by Deutsche Bank. As I noted in May, probabilities using a plain vanilla term spread model can yield wildly different results if one uses the 10yr-3mo or 10yr-2yr, with the 10yr-2yr producing a much higher probability. Rashad Ahmad’s model, using offshore yield curves, gives much higher probabilities (although the elevated probability is driven by financial conditions and oil prices).

What about inflation? Here’s a graph of the PCE deflator and the median forecast from the IGM-FT survey.

Figure 3: Personal consumption expenditure chain type index (black), and IGM-FT median forecast (blue square), and average of 10th and 90th percentile forecasts (lilac +). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, IGM-FT, NBER, and author’s calculations.

The median forecast implies 5.07% m/m annualized inflation for May through December (note we only have April’s number as of today). That is slower than the 6.1 y/y inflation rate over the preceding 12 months (both numbers in log terms).

As for upward inflationary pressures over the next twelve months. the survey respondents indicated geopolitical tensions were likely to be the main culprit. Coming in second as a primary driver was supply chain issues.

Source: IGM-FT survey (June 2022).

Excess aggregate demand accounts for only 6% of the responses, suggesting demand pull factors won’t be central in driving inflation over the next year.

The Financial Times article is. here (paywall).

 

 

106 thoughts on “IGM-FT Macroeconomists survey for June

      1. Barkley Rosser

        And about that many think that the 2020 presidential election was “stolen,” despite the lack of even a shred of evidence to support that.

        Reply
      2. Moses Herzog

        I just watched (one of my favorite actresses since I saw her in “Sideways”) Sandra Oh in “Umma” two days ago man. Damn Menzie, you gotta ruin everything for me!?!?!?!? (I’m on Menzie’s side on this topic, I’m attempting a joke people)

        Reply
      3. CoRev

        Menzie, live in a haunted house then come back with an opinion. Yes, I have. What I and my family have seen and heard leaves no doubt. As always you are entitled to your own beliefs, but your belittling arrogance is unfounded.

        Reply
        1. baffling

          well, that certainly explains a lot about the substance of your comments on this site. ghost hunter. go put on your tin foil hat before the government zaps your thoughts.

          Reply
          1. baffling

            there are no haunted houses. anybody who believes in such quackery is an idiot. every day, you continue to amaze me at the depths of your ignorance.

          1. Noneconomist

            CoRev: having trouble visualizing you in the role of Cosmo Topper, movie(s) or the old TV series. But good to know I’m not the only one who has a drink before 5pm.

        2. Moses Herzog

          You are a trumpian person or MAGA person in your deepest heart. Accusing others of your own offenses or your own sins, You don’t need to wear the red idiot’s cap, just open your mouth and we know who you are

          Reply
        3. Moses Herzog

          @ CoRev
          As Menzie and others have pointed out you are a little thick-headed. But I find your “stick-to-it-iveness”, as my father would call it, amusing (and not in an altogether condescending way). I wish neither to defend your ghost assertions, nor to jump on top of the gang-tackle pile at the end of the play, as I consider it very bad gamesmanship. What I will do for you CoRev, as a man who to a degree admires your stick-to-it-iveness is leave you with a quote I just read in the introduction to a novel I just started reading tonight. The quote is from Freud. (You should appreciate this CoRev, because I am an exceedingly lazy man and am trying to type this with one hand as I hold the paperback with the other hand).

          “It no longer seems possible to brush aside the so-called occult facts; of things which seem to vouchsafe the real existence of psychic forces of the human and animal psyche, or which reveal mental faculties in which, until now, we did not believe.”

          William Burroughs (who some believe to be one of the greatest minds of the 20th century) also believed in a bag of supernatural things. There are ghost-like figures discussed in the Bible as well, but it is considered a sin to attempt to communicate directly with them, as a “medium”. And if you believe the Old Testament book of Daniel, we will see some….. unusual apparitions in the future. I’m relatively neutral on these discussions. “Agnostic” as it relates to ghosts I guess. But~~I believe you believe it, and in that sense, you have “credibility” on this topic with me.

          Reply
      4. Steven Kopits

        To be clear, if Q2 is negative, then we can say that 55% of the public is smarter than 98% of the economics profession.

        Right now, the view of the profession is that a record low Michigan Index number is a false positive, as are the views of the public regarding recession by a ratio of 2.6 : 1. That’s certainly possible, but comparing it to ghosts? That constitutes the flat rejection of the notion that Q2 could be negative when the Atlanta Fed is showing only 0.9%. That’s not a big margin for error.

        Btw, how many economists predicted Q1 at -1.5%? Any?

        Reply
        1. pgl

          “then we can say that 55% of the public is smarter than 98% of the economics profession.”

          Well now! We can also say with 100% confidence that 100% of both groups are smarter than you.

          Reply
        2. Macroduck

          Recession in the U.S. is when NBER says there is recession. That’s because GDP alone can be misleading about the health of the economy.

          So no, a drop in Q2 GDP would not be reason to declare benighted partisans to be enlightened.

          And let’s not even get carried away with the 2 quarters of contraction thing until revisions are in. That’s why NBER takes its time.

          Reply
          1. CoRev

            MD’s whistling by that ole graveyard in hopes a recession is not declared just in time for the vote. May be it will maybe it won’t be declared, but voter expectations are already being voiced and felt.

            Pucker harder, MD. 😉

          2. Steven Kopits

            “Recession in the U.S. is when NBER says there is recession.”

            Why people voted for Trump.

    1. GREGORY BOTT

      38% of people thought there was a recession in January 2000. My guess as the gasoline bubble pops, these numbers will change.

      Reply
      1. Steven Kopits

        In January 2000, Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index was at a record high at 56. You literally picked the peak month. The latest reading is -45. The last time we saw a reading at that level, we were five months into the Great Recession.

        January 2000 was also the all-time record high month for the Michigan Index, which stood at 112. It is currently at the record low, 50.2

        Quite a talent you have there, Bott.

        Reply
        1. pgl

          “In January 2000, Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index was at a record high at 56.”

          For someone who demanded a source, it is interesting that you did not provide a link to your NEW index. I guess the folks at Michigan got mad that you are incapable of properly labeling your old favorite metric.

          Maybe we should start measuring the number of fish in Brazil (the favorite joke of my econometric professor – he was brilliant but truly funny. Of course Stevie is so dull he would never get the joke.

          Reply
        2. pgl

          Princeton Steve is desperately running around trying to find polls of your average Joe to support Princeton Steve’s latest THE WORLD IS COMING TO AN END thesis. I wonder if Princeton Chicken Little Steve knows how Gallup comes up with its little Economic Confidence Index:

          ‘Gallup regularly tracks Americans’ ratings of national economic conditions as excellent, good, only fair or poor, and whether they are getting better or worse. The combined responses are used to create the Gallup Economic Confidence Index (ECI), which has a theoretical range of +100 (if all respondents say the economy is excellent or good and that it is getting better) to -100 (if all say it is poor and getting worse).’

          This is something that should be taken over the views of actual economists? Seriously – Princeton Steve has proven himself to the dumbest troll ever. I suggest Bruce Hall and CoRev give up their race to be the dumbest troll ever as Steve has clearly won.

          Reply
    2. macroduck

      Already discussed in earlier comments. But you knew that. You just wanted to repeat it.

      Also previously discussed is that a majority o Republicans believe the U.S. is in recession, while a majority of Democrats do not. Since the majority of indicators used by the NBER to determine recession timing are showing no sign of recession, that just means Democrats are better informed tthan Republicans. Why is that? Well for starters, we have long known that Faux News viewers are baably misinformed as to facts. Don’t know about today, but when Jon Stewart hosted the Daily Show, his viewers were better informed than those who relied on TV news from any source and vastly better informed than Faux News viewers. So maybe that’s why the yougov poll came out the way it did.

      Reply
      1. Steven Kopits

        The ratio for Democrats is 1.3 : 1 that there is no recession. So Democrats do not believe there is a recession, but not by a big margin.

        Independents, on the other hand, think we are in a recession by 3 : 1, so by a very big margin.

        Reply
    3. pgl

      So you interview plumbers in lieu of actual economist? I would ask – could anyone be this incredibly stupid. But we all know you are.

      Reply
  1. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-06-13/UK-economy-contracts-by-0-3-in-April-1aPtH8n9ayQ/index.html

    June 13, 2022

    UK slowdown fears mount as GDP’s unexpected shrink in April

    Britain’s economy unexpectedly shrank in April, official figures showed on Monday, adding to fears of a sharp slowdown just three days before the Bank of England announces the scale of its latest interest rate response to the surge in inflation.

    Gross domestic product contracted by 0.3 percent after falling by 0.1 percent in March, the first back-to-back declines since April and March 2020, at the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

    It was the first time since January last year that all main economic sectors had shrunk.

    Economists polled by Reuters had on average expected GDP to grow by 0.1 percent in April from March.

    The data comes as the Bank of England is set to raise its main interest rate at a fifth straight meeting Thursday in a bid to cool the pace of price rises.

    “Despite weakening economic growth, the Bank of England this week is expected to raise rates further as it seeks to get inflation under control,” said Paul Craig, portfolio manager at Quilter Investors.

    Last week, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said Britain’s economy would show no growth next year, the weakest forecast for 2023 of any country in the Group of 20 with the exception of sanctions-hit Russia.

    Reply
  2. macroduck

    Some notable oddities in the Booth School results –

    Median estimate for the U3 rate is 3.7%, up slightly from 3.6% in the three most recent readings, despite the fact that the modal estimate for the average monthly employment gain is between 200,000 and 300,000. Normally, a bottom in the jobless rate would signal recession within a couple of quarters, consistent with the moral estimate for recent to begin in Q1 or Q2 of next year. The forecast for employment gain is an average over time, so it could mask a slowing toward year-end. Oherwise, It’s a little hard to imagine a recession in Q1 with job gains in running at 200k+ in December.

    The forecast range (10%-90%) for the core PCE deflator at year-end is 2.8 ppts wide. The median estimate for the core PCE deflator, at 4.3%, is only 0.5 ppts above the bottom of the range. There are some odd forecasts in there somewhere.

    “Futures markets now suggest the Fed will raise the federal funds rate to about 2.8 percent
    by the end of 2022.”

    That should read ” by the end of September”. Futures are pricing in more like 3.6% for year-end. Which puts all the oyer Fed-related forecasts in a funny light.

    Menzie points out the two factors expected to be most important in driving inflation over the next 12 months. Interestingly, expectations are not high on the list of such factors. Wasn’t Covid just telling us how current inflaton is a big deal for future inflation and how we must, must, must keep our eye on current inflation? Real economists seem to disagree.

    Reply
    1. CoRev

      MD says: “Interestingly, expectations are not high on the list of such factors. “, expectations can drive demand. So not too sure of the valididty.

      Just wondering.

      Reply
      1. Macroduck

        Or just quibbling. You’re whole big “short-term expectations are really,really important” thing was just more political hackery.

        Reply
  3. ltr

    https://english.news.cn/20220612/4aefc2817db24c08948ab15198a18612/c.html

    June 12, 2022

    China’s NEV sales soar in May as production resumes

    BEIJING — Sales of China’s new energy vehicles (NEVs) logged a sharp increase in May amid the country’s efforts to resume car production and stabilize supply chains, data from an industry association showed.

    Last month, China’s NEV passenger car sales came in at 360,000 units, surging 91.2 percent year on year, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

    On a monthly basis, the sales volume registered an increase of 26.9 percent.

    In the first five months, NEV sales in the country skyrocketed 119.5 percent from a year ago to 1.71 million units.

    Overall, China’s passenger vehicle sales rebounded in May from April, with a total of 1.35 million passenger vehicles sold last month, up 29.7 percent month on month, according to the association….

    Reply
    1. ltr

      What is indicated in the advance of new energy vehicle sales, is a correction for any supply-chain production limits and a pronounced move away from standard energy vehicles that will be on-going. NEV sales are now running above 400,000 monthly. Also, about half of NEV sales were of domestic brands. Application of the Chinese global positioning system and 5G network in NEVs is allowing rapid increases in automated vehicle use, as, say, in farm vehicles being used in the current wheat harvest.

      Reply
  4. macroduck

    Defensive positioning added 21 basis points to the ten-year yield today, 32 basis points to twos. Stocks, which are even more sensitive than usual to interest rates, well, you saw what happened.

    The WSJ wrote today what everyone already knew – that a 75 basis point hike is possible this week – adding fuel to the fire.

    Short-covering could provide a lift after the FOMC announcement. If so, it may not last long unless Powell talks nice.

    Reply
    1. baffling

      the market is now pricing in .75% rate hike. i think this provides cover for the committee to increase the rate hike to 0.75% this week, without it tanking the market any more that what has already occurred. i did not expect this move at the end of last week. i expect it now.

      Reply
      1. CoRevc

        Baffled – coward, we can’t have short term expectation on this blog. MD and Bierka – the NYC Jerk have so said.

        Reply
        1. Barkley Rosser

          CoRev,

          Oh, since you have been living in a haunted house, I shall shift from “bow wow wow” when you get going with your infantile “Bierking” to “BOO!!!! Got you!!!

          Reply
          1. pgl

            At this point – we seriously need to make sure CoRev does not have access to guns as he clearly has serious mental issues. I hope law enforcement knows where he lives for the sake of the other residents.

          2. baffling

            don’t ask him about the alien abduction aboard the UFO. the dude gets crazier by the day.

  5. macroduck

    Off topic – temperature-related excess deaths

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00081-4/fulltext

    In the 2000-2019 period, cold caused more excess deaths than heat, but cold-related deaths decreased while heat-related deaths increased. In the near-term, the authors think the change in the mix may lead to fewer excess deaths, but more in the long run as heat extremes become more common and more extreme. (Anybody here from the Southwest U.S.?)

    Interestingly, cold-related deaths are more likely in sub-Saharan Africa, heat-related deaths in Eastern Europe. Apparently, accustomedness matters. It’s the surprise that gets you.

    Reply
  6. Bruce Hall

    Which one of Biden’s economic advisors forecasted the impact of oil sanctions against Russia? Whoever did probably got confused about which country(ies) would be adversely affected.
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/russias-oil-revenue-soars-despite-181624231.html

    So, here we are in an “incredible transition” away from fossil fuels. How’s that working out?
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-grids-autos-insight-idUSKBN2AX18Y

    The Fed noted that personal savings rate was now below 5%. There is some indication that this is contributing to the continuing strong spending by consumers. What happens when the savings cushion from the pandemic runs out? Personal loans? 2nd mortgages? Less spending?
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT

    Not being in a recession and not having underlying economic problems are not necessarily the same thing.

    Reply
    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      Bruce Hall: Don’t you have the causality wrong? The low savings rate (a measurement) is a result of high consumption (the behavior). At least IMHO.

      Reply
      1. pgl

        Asking Bruce to get basic cause and effect may be expecting too much of him. Let’s congratulate him on finally understanding basic accounting. After all – his preK teacher is trying Bruce to grasp advanced arithmetic as in the sum of 2 plus 2.

        Reply
      2. CoRev

        Menzie, I dunno, but interpreted this: “… personal savings rate was now below 5%. There is some indication that this is contributing to the continuing strong spending by consumers.” to essentially mean: “The low savings rate (a measurement) is a result of high consumption (the behavior).”

        Maybe Bruce can clarify.

        Reply
        1. pgl

          Bruce has no clue what Menzie wrote. OK you do not either even if his message was clear to any with an IQ above the teens. If we summed your and Bruce’s IQ, the sum would still be in the single digits.

          Reply
        2. Bruce Hall

          J.R. Whalen: Here’s your midday brief for Friday, May 27th. I’m J.R. Whalen for the Wall Street Journal. The Commerce Department says US households boosted spending for the fourth straight month in April, but they dug into their savings to do it. While spending rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.9%, the savings rate fell to 4.4%, the lowest in 14 years. That suggests that many Americans are tapping their savings to offset cost increases from high inflation.
          https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/minute-briefing/americans-dip-into-savings-to-pay-for-higher-costs/8b7c08a0-cbba-42bc-8879-8eb3132858a4?mod=error_page

          But pgl cannot make the connection that inflation rising faster than wages leave many people with only two alternatives: 1) spend less to keep savings intact or 2) spend more to cover inflation and reduce savings. He thinks everyone lives the Nob Hill lifestyle.

          Reply
          1. pgl

            WTF is this J.R. Whalen any way? Dude – focus on the Nobel Prize winning economics from your boy Tucker Carlson. It is all about replacement theory which we know you endorse.

          2. pgl

            “But pgl cannot make the connection that inflation rising faster than wages leave many people with only two alternatives: 1) spend less to keep savings intact or 2) spend more to cover inflation and reduce savings.”

            Bruce must have falied preK reading. He is trying to make the argument that real income fell but I guess he is incapable of articulating this in a really SIMPLE definition of saving = income – consumption.

            Of course anyone who took even basic economics might realize as along as real GDP has not declined, then nominal income rises with the general inflation rate at least for the economy as a whole.

            But yea – Bruce no relationship to Robert Hall is this incompetent.

          3. pgl

            I read that stupid tirade from J. R. Whalen which had me wondering who this bad writer really was. LinkedIn says:

            Podcast Anchor and Producer at The Wall Street Journal

            He does have a podcast for the fat cats of Wall Street? If Bruce Hall wants to pretend he is now the champion of the working class, why on earth would he tout this Wall Street clown as his new guru?

            BTW Whalen is noting baby sitters are in high demand and are getting $35 an hour. So as poor little Brucie has an empty piggy bank these young ladies are able to both consume and save a lot. And even the ones named Lucy want nothing to do with a loser like Bruce Hall. No they date only smart boys.

          4. Bruce Hall

            pgl, still waiting for your CV. Until then, you’re just another blowhard whose schtick is ad hominem remarks.

        1. pgl

          “I agree that the low saving rate is associated with high consumption”

          Associated? I gave you credit for understanding the basic accounting but it seems you don’t. Repeat after me moron.

          Savings = Income – Consumption.

          It is a simple definition that is taught in the very 1st freshman economics class. But yea – WAY OVER your puny excuse of a brain.

          Reply
          1. Bruce Hall

            If you want to use “income” in broadest terms, that can also include “stimulus” (inflation) checks from the Federal and state governments that don’t recur. But that’s not how most people budget. Those “stimulus” checks have already been spent and inflation is eating away more than the amount of those checks. So, in real terms, Savings = Income – Consumption – Inflation. People are not necessarily consuming more gallons of gasoline, they are consuming gasoline plus inflation.

          2. pgl

            Bruce Hall
            June 14, 2022 at 2:25 pm
            If you want to use “income” in broadest terms, that can also include “stimulus” (inflation) checks from the Federal and state governments that don’t recur.

            My Lord – your stupidity burns. Income is a flow concept. You are referring to a one time payment as in a temporary government transfer. Which is not what inflation even is but that is another matter. One time payments are more like balance sheet events. Sort of like debt v. deficit.

            But once again Bruce no relationship to Robert Hall flunks accounting 101.

            Listen moron – try learning the most basic concepts before you embarrass yourself again. DAMN!

          3. pgl

            “So, in real terms, Savings = Income – Consumption – Inflation. People are not necessarily consuming more gallons of gasoline, they are consuming gasoline plus inflation.”

            And I accused CoRev of writing gibberish. Brucie – please sit down with your preK teacher as she is trying very hard teaching you how to tie your shoes. Basic accounting? Basic writing skills? She will get around to teaching you that after you stop falling on your face.

          4. 2slugbaits

            Bruce Hall So, in real terms, Savings = Income – Consumption – Inflation.

            Savings, Income and Consumption are levels. Inflation is a rate. If you want to think clearly about economics, you cannot mix levels and rates just as you cannot mix stock variables and flow variables.

            If you can’t be bothered to take an econ course at your local community college, then please buy an intro book on macroeconomics.

        2. pgl

          “dipping into the piggy bank become problematic.”

          You still put your funds into a piggy bank? How childish can little Brucie get? Hey Bruce – me thinks your mommy is stealing from your little piggy bank.

          Reply
          1. pgl

            “2slugbaits
            June 15, 2022 at 6:11 am
            Bruce Hall So, in real terms, Savings = Income – Consumption – Inflation.

            Savings, Income and Consumption are levels. Inflation is a rate. If you want to think clearly about economics, you cannot mix levels and rates just as you cannot mix stock variables and flow variables.

            If you can’t be bothered to take an econ course at your local community college, then please buy an intro book on macroeconomics.”

            Thanks for the sanity 2slug but something tells me poor little Bruce Hall is not going to get your simple point. Let me try amending his incredibly dumb definition for a simple household that has wealth (W)) but no debt (or if you prefer let W = net wealth.

            The annual increase in real wealth = income – consumption + (Nominal interest – inflation) times W.

            Of course the latter part is the real interest rate times wealth. If the nominal rate started at 1% and inflation = 0, then the real rate would be 1%. An expected increase in inflation would raise nominal rates by the increase in inflation so the real rate does not change. Which blows apart all of Bruce’s BS. Of course this is what Irving Fisher taught us 115 years ago.

            But OK, inflation has risen by say 6% and nominal rates have gone up by only 2%. As such the decline in the real interest rate for this short period of time is say 4%.

            But that negative impact depends on the person’s wealth, which is Bruce Hall’s little piggy bank is zero. But let’s say we have a person where W = $25,000, Income = $60,000 and consumption = $50,000 for the year. So the decline in real interest rates has led to this fellow losing $1000 in real wealth but overall his real wealth for the year rose by $9000.

            So here we have a simple example based on sound accounting where Bruce Hall’s bloviating is once again shown to be beyond stupid. Now I ran this by my 4 year old grandson and he got it completely. But something tells me Bruce Hall will still be lost. He is indeed that dumb.

    2. pgl

      “Which one of Biden’s economic advisors forecasted the impact of oil sanctions against Russia?”

      What was the forecast of “Dr” Bruce Hall? Nada. How about Trump’s chief economist Larry Kudlow who told us that the 2003 invasion of Iraq would lower oil prices to $12 a barrel. Yea – that was “accurate”.

      Reply
      1. Bruce Hall

        Another stupid non sequitur from pgl. Once again, he cannot allow reality to overcome his ideology. The “Narrative” must always win… even if he has to try to connect something from 19-years ago to a decision that has badly backfired by this administration

        Reply
        1. pgl

          Actually stupid non sequiturs is all you ever write. Sorry dude – but your incompetent rants are not even worth reading. So do us all a favor. Stop writing your usual BS.

          Reply
    1. Moses Herzog

      People, it kills me when she blinks. I hope her BF/Husband notices that. When she blinks at the end that’s a knife/heartbreaker.

      Reply
  7. Barkley Rosser

    This is off=topic, but related to the matter of me being a journal editor, which some here seen not to realize, thinking I am just a “historical” one. Anyway, this is also about how one can learn surprising things from obituaries.

    Yesterday I read in WaPo the one for Sigmund Freud’s last living grandchild, Sophie Freud, who died at age 97. She knew him in her youth in Vienna. Her mother and she escaped to Paris when Hitler took Vienna and then from Paris, as in the famous movie, through Casablanca and Lisbon to the US after Hitler took Paris. She would become a psychiatric social worker and taught at Simmons in Boston. She publicly criticized some of her grandfather’s theories. She agreed with him on the importance of the unconscious, but thought his views on women were way off, “Penis envy is the idea of a three year old boy,” for example.

    As I was reading the list of her survivors at the end, one named jumped out at me, “George Lowenstein of Pittsburgh.” I had to double check, but indeed he is the eminent behavioral economist and neuroeconomist who holds the Herbert A. Simon Chair in Economics and Psychology at Carneigie Mellon University in Pittsbhurgh. Author of numerous important papers on the role of emotions in economic decisionmaking, he is a recipient of a MacArthur “genius” grant among many other awards and recognitions, and also had over 137,000 google scholar citations of his publications, which is really a lot. It is somehow appropriate that a great grandson of Sigmund Freud who studied economics would end up influentially applyying psychological ideas to it.

    Anyway, George just happens to be one of the Honorary Editors of the journal I founded and currently edit, the Review of Behavioral Economics, and I am pleased and proud to have him on board.

    Reply
    1. Moses Herzog

      But, don’t you think Mr. Lowenstein is “slumming” just a little bit?? (it’s a joke, relax). I like this comment. It came really close to not being self-focused. You missed it by that much,

      Reply
      1. Moses Herzog

        ……. almost missed not being self focused “by that much” [holds my index fingers up in the air a quarter inch from each other] Do I have to explain everything to you people?? You damned Puh-huds……

        Reply
        1. Moses Herzog

          This brought many memories back to me when I watched Letterman as a young guy. I want to explain something as a “white guy” who spent 7 years in China. You might think if you watched Letterman’s part about the Chinese restaurants and Alan Alda. “What are they getting at?”? I appears mildly racist. But I don’t think it is “racist” I think what Letterman is doing is showing the ridiculousness or “absurdity” of humanity, HUMANITY, and how people push things that they think will benefit them.

          BTW in the last 2 weeks Kimmel is now my favorite late night host, Why??? ONLY because he is ALSO a LETTERMAN fan. And I feel the same way about Letterman/Carson. It just doesn’t feel the same as when you were young and innocent about the way you looked at the world.
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BI8v8_4ZVA

          TV like this, will never be made again. I remember when my CHinese students (mostly girls near adulthood) thought the main character in “Rushmore” was being “mean ” or “rude” to the Asian girl in the film, and I had to explain to them, in about 10 minutes, why he wasn’t being “racist” to her. I’m convinced, after I was finished “explaining” he wasn’t being “racist”. they didn’t buy a single word I said.

          Reply
      2. Barkley Rosser

        “Slumming a bit”? I doubt George sees it that way. The journal’s honorary editors include four with Nobel Prizes, and previously had two more who have since died, the late Thomas Schelling and Reinhard Selten, the latter publishing a paper in the first issue of the journal.

        As it is, Moses, I remind you that you were invited to participate in a seminar I hosted with one of those Nobel Prize winners. But I guess you declined out of not wanting to be caught “slumming.” You really just cannot avoid making a complete fool of yourself, can you, Moses?

        Reply
          1. Barkley Rosser

            Yes, too bad you missed that. He was good, and there was a substantial discussion as well.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          BTW, just to poke at myself a bit on this, for Moses’s benefit especially, given my usual pomposity, I shall note that I put up a post about this matter on Facebook. So another of the Honorary Editors at ROBE popped up to make fun of me for not having known this fact about George. “You did not already know this?” he hooted with some further snipes. Apparently his middle name is “Freud,” and as this person noted, he has never made a secret of the connection. But all I knew was that his middle initial is F, which I figured stood for something like Fred or Frank, and I had to read his mother’s obituary to learn of it. Oh well, kind of out of it.

          Reply
  8. rsm

    5.07%, as if inflation is accurately measured to two decimal places? Anyone ever heard of significant figures? More like 5% +/- 10%, amirite?

    Reply
  9. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-06-14/China-s-FDI-inflows-up-17-3-pct-in-the-first-five-months-1aQY6CLV1cI/index.html

    June 14, 2022

    China’s FDI inflow up 17.3% in the first five months of 2022

    Foreign direct investment (FDI) into the Chinese mainland, in actual use, surged 17.3 percent year on year to 564.2 billion yuan ($83.7 billion) in the first five months of this year, the Ministry of Commerce said Tuesday.

    In U.S. dollar terms, the inflow went up 22.6 percent year on year to $87.77 billion.

    The service industry saw FDI inflows jump by 10.8 percent year on year to 423.3 billion yuan, while that of high-tech industries surged by 42.7 percent from a year earlier, data from the ministry shows.

    Specifically, FDI in high-tech manufacturing rose 32.9 percent from the same period a year ago, while that in the high-tech service sector surged 45.4 percent year on year, the data shows.

    During the period, investment from the Republic of Korea, the United States, and Germany climbed by 52.8 percent, 27.1 percent, and 21.4 percent, respectively.

    In the January-May period, FDI flowing into the country’s central region reported a rapid year-on-year increase of 35.6 percent, followed by 17.9 percent in the western region, and 16.1 percent in the eastern region.

    Reply
  10. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-06-14/Super-large-dataset-about-global-climate-system-launched-1aPh2EvZvHi/index.html

    June 14, 2022

    Super-large dataset about global climate system launched

    A Chinese institute has developed a climate system model FGOALS-g3 and produced a super-large ensemble simulation dataset with 110 members, according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS).

    Each member of the dataset covers coupling simulations of oceans, atmosphere, sea ice, and land surface in a period from 1850 to 2099.

    The surface air temperature and land precipitation simulated by the FGOALS-g3 super-large ensemble have been validated and projected, noted the research article * published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

    The ensemble can capture the response of surface air temperature and land precipitation to external forcings, and the internal variabilities can be quantified.

    The dataset can accurately represent historically observed temperature, precipitation, and extreme climate events, and be further used for climate prediction and climate change research.

    The FGOALS-g3 model and the simulation dataset were developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the CAS. The dataset is now available on the website of Science Data Bank.

    * https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-022-1439-1

    Reply
  11. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-06-14/Chinese-mainland-records-95-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases–1aQMyL5SWsg/index.html

    June 14, 2022

    Chinese mainland records 95 new confirmed COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 95 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Monday, with 60 linked to local transmissions and 35 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Tuesday.

    A total of 135 asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Monday, and 2,162 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    The cumulative number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland is 224,977, with the death toll from COVID-19 standing at 5,226.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-06-14/Chinese-mainland-records-95-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases–1aQMyL5SWsg/img/6c7b3a815e4b43f79a8bb4a7b633132d/6c7b3a815e4b43f79a8bb4a7b633132d.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-06-14/Chinese-mainland-records-95-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases–1aQMyL5SWsg/img/1ad4313803444f45a6906c8985c449ee/1ad4313803444f45a6906c8985c449ee.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-06-14/Chinese-mainland-records-95-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases–1aQMyL5SWsg/img/5c02215cc6d8450b8a12642698d5ceef/5c02215cc6d8450b8a12642698d5ceef.jpeg

    Reply
  12. pgl

    There are 3 pro-Putin surrender monkeys who are saying our support for Ukraine is why gasoline prices are so high. Two of these surrender monkeys are MAGA hat wearing know nothings (Bruce Hall and CoRev the rapid barking dog) and of course we have the ultimate know nothing JohnH playing Putin’s favorite pet parrot. Well Kevin Drum has done some serious thinking about what has driven up the world price of oil:

    https://jabberwocking.com/ukraine-is-not-the-cause-of-sky-high-gasoline-prices/

    The price of Brent crude dipped at the start of the pandemic and then started recovering. This is far before the Ukraine war. The price mostly recovered by July 2020 and then rose 130% ($60) by January 2022. After the Ukraine war started, the price increased another 25% ($25). In other words, the Ukraine war is not the primary cause of high oil prices (and hence high gasoline prices). It just added a bit to a price that had already been soaring for a long time.

    I guess we need to translate this clear writing for our trio of really dumb surrender monkeys. The world economy recovered increasing the demand for oil. Now people wearing MAGA hats have to see this as a bad thing that is all Biden’s fault. Strong economic growth is of course a good thing but none of our really dumb surrender monkeys understand that.

    Reply
    1. CoRev

      Bierka -the NYC Jerk, and now perhaps the dumbest person here. I never claimed: “There are 3 pro-Putin surrender monkeys who are saying our support for Ukraine is why gasoline prices are so high.” Never!

      What I have said is that the US price rises are largely because of Biden’s war on fossil fuels. How can you be so wrong? Oh, forget it. You’re just living up to your name.

      Reply
      1. pgl

        I see – Biden has sent the military into North Dakota to attack the miners there. Hey CoRev – you and your fellow white nationalists need to get your AR15 and head up there to defend the miners against the evil Biden militia!

        Reply
      2. 2slugbaits

        CoRev Biden’s war on fossil fuels

        I rather think the real problem is fossil fuels’ war on Earth. In any event, it’s a war that Biden is clearly losing since US production of crude oil is now greater than it was the day Biden took office. Instead of blaming Biden, maybe you should blame those idiots who got suckered into buying gas guzzling F-150s because it made them feel like “real men.”

        Say “Hi” to Casper for us.

        Reply
        1. CoRev

          2slugs, we actually had two ghosts not one. Yes, we do know who they are/were.

          This comment does match the quality of your knowledge of assault rifles, though. 😉

          Reply
          1. 2slugbaits

            CoRev we actually had two ghosts not one.

            Those weren’t ghosts. They were your MAGA friends wearing their white robes and hoods.

      3. baffling

        natural gas is down dramatically this past week, now that we cannot export that fossil fuel. the price of natural gas did not rise because of a war on fossil fuels. it rose because we exported too much in order to defend the russian war on european energy.

        gasoline refiners are making huge profits from the recent increase in gas prices. your energy inflation is going into the pockets of exxon.

        Reply
    2. Steven Kopits

      It is not the support for Ukraine, but rather the nature of the support for Ukraine. EU leadership’s strategy has gone against the advice of the industry professionals, and it is catalyzing an oil shock as a result. Unbelievably bad policy, second only to a guy named Putin for bad decisions in 2022.

      Reply
      1. pgl

        “EU leadership’s strategy has gone against the advice of the industry professionals”

        Industry professionals? Who might that be? Self centered CEOs or Village Idiots like you?

        Reply
          1. Moses Herzog

            @FormerlyOfStinkyJerseyKopits
            I found a news journalist who’s dying to quote you. Give her a buzz sometime to discuss oil market prices:
            https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2022/06/16/usa-today-audit-reporter/7647731001/

            They found out about this, only after a person external to the paper asked USA Today to look into it. It took someone outside of the paper to let them know what was going on. 23 stories “disappeared” from USA Today’s website.

            USA Today are owned by Gannett, which has switched over most editorial boards of newspapers in this nation to staunchly Republican, so between reporters like this woman and Gannett’s editorializing the journalistic portions of their papers Kopits might have a “new home” for interviews if “OAN” radio drops him. Or he can phone up this reporter who resigned. She desperately needs people to quote now.

      2. CoRev

        Stephen, we are following some of that same bad policy. Europe bad policy was not allowing fracking of natural gas while drawing from Russian sources. Some of our own states are following this same bad policy. Virtue signalling of this nature is what has Europe in the natural gas deficit. Trump warned them of the reliance on Russia. Industry experts warned them about not fracking, and here they are today. There is plenty of natural gas in the ground in Europe, but they chose the Net Zero route while burning gas from other sources.

        All to save the planet from ?climate change? disasters.

        Reply
        1. pgl

          You actually think Europe is North Dakota. I guess Switzerland should start its fracking boom! Lord CoRev – you do write the dumbest things.

          Reply
  13. pgl

    Under another thread there was a little debate whether the FED should intervene with respect to the crypto crash. I tend to agree with Barkley that it is not the FED’s job to prop up speculative nonsense (which is what crypto is). But it does seem that the crypto crash will lead to some layoffs:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/news/coinbase-cuts-roughly-1-100-jobs-amid-fears-of-a-crypto-winter/ar-AAYsdmQ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=0ccd0060484847ec9f212f023d880991

    Reply
  14. Barkley Rosser

    Regarding Biden trying to get oil prices down, his now announced trip to Saudi Arabia is clearly largely driven by that, although he might actually pull off a peace deal on Yemen where a two month ceasefire is still holding. That might make such a humiliiating trip worthwhile, even if, as I expect, he does not get much out of the horrible MbS, includiong much of an increase in oil production, who is enjoying the current high oil prices, although in the past the Saudis did not like to have oil prices too high because they foresaw that could trigger long-term substitution away from oil, thus hurting them in the long run. They have nothing else besides the Hajj.

    But Biden has blown an alternative in a major way. if he had simply rejoined the JCPOA nuclear deal after taking office without making all these silly demands to expand the agreement to cover missiles and other stuff, which those of us who have spent any time in the Middle East knew was going to go nowhere and has, he could have ended sanctions on iran, which might well be producing easily a good 2 mbpd more than they are now, and he could still do that, although the Saudis and Israelis will be unhappy if he soes (even as some Isreali security people think the JCPOA is a good deal, e.g. military intel chief Major General Aharon Haliva).

    Reply
    1. pgl

      Of course the JCPOA nuclear deal should have been in effect for the last 6 or so years but we allowed some pompous lunatic traitor to occupy the White House for 4 of those years.

      Reply
  15. baffling

    off topic, but energy related
    https://www.eenews.net/articles/doe-heres-where-renewable-costs-are-heading/
    renewables continue to drive down the cost of electricity. fossil fuels will not be cost competitive before long.
    in other news, texas and ercot continue to be bailed out by renewables during the latest heat wave
    https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/14/us/texas-energy-record-solar-wind-climate/index.html

    and i hear nissan and renault are recycling electric vehicles batteries for grid energy storage improvement. if we take advantage of existing EV batteries during an emergency, our capacity increases even greater. good changes are coming to our electric world, faster than many realize.

    Reply
    1. CoRev

      Also off topic, but energy related

      OZ is reaping the whirlwind of renewables: https://joannenova.com.au/2022/06/blackout-risk-in-five-states-continues-wholesale-energy-market-suspended-australians-told-to-use-less-electricity/
      “Day #3: Huge Yallourn coal plant in Victoria loses 2 of 4 turbines. The AEMO suspends the whole market. Blackout warnings continue. Australians are being asked to conserve electricity. It’s just another day in the forced transition we don’t have to have.

      How much lower can we go? Half of the generators from the ultra cheap brown coal Yallourn plant went phht yesterday. This was “unplanned”. It normally makes 20% of Victoria’s electricity. It’s owned by EnergyAustralia (China Light and Power) which is keen to close it early in 2028 and has a special secret deal with the Victorian government to do so. Perhaps China Light and Power is scrimping on those maintenance costs?…”
      and https://joannenova.com.au/2022/06/still-teetering-blackout-warnings-across-the-australian-grid-next-three-days/
      “The price market broke on Sunday night and now the interconnectors rules are broken too. The whole Eastern five state “National” grid is flying seat of the pants — the reserves are so incredibly thin that there are LOR3 forecasts — meaning Lack Of Reserve Level 3 rolled out for all five states. It doesn’t mean blackouts will happen, but it means all the protective layers of this onion are gone. The system is running bare.”

      It is Winter down under and as we recently hear in another thread here that there are more deaths from cold than warm temperatures.

      BTW, Oz just elected a Greenish government just in time to exacerbate this problem. Your policies in action down under, and voters recognize their value here.

      Reply
      1. pgl

        Your very dubious source describes himself thusly “A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic’s Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).” A TV Host! So is Tucker Carlson – your mentor.

        I guess your reference to OZ is Dr. Oz who too is a total fraud. BTW – Australia is perhaps the world leader in developing natural gas. Of course they export a lot of that to China. Oh but you did not know that as you learned all your “economics” watching Fox and Friends.

        Reply
      2. pgl

        “Huge Yallourn coal plant in Victoria loses 2 of 4 turbines.”

        I’m quoting your source. Since when do we classify coal as renewables. Come on CoRev – at least read your own links.

        Reply
        1. CoRev

          Barking Bierka – the NYC Jerk, doesn’t get the need for backup for renewables. Intermittent renewables are worthless on an electric grid without being back up when they can not produce. That’s why you misread, failed to comprehend and missed the point of ” the reserves are so incredibly thin that there are LOR3 forecasts — meaning Lack Of Reserve Level 3 rolled out for all five states. It doesn’t mean blackouts will happen, but it means all the protective layers of this onion are gone. The system is running bare.” In my comment.

          Its hard to believe the level of economic denial on an economics blog.

          Reply
          1. pgl

            You first attribute something related to coal to renewables and this is your off topic feeble reply? Dude – even a retarded dog’s barking is smarter than your absurd comments.

          2. CoRev

            Barking Bierka – the NYC Jerk, I repeat: “Its hard to believe the level of economic denial on an economics blog.”

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