Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices

Oil prices are down, and futures are in backwardation. Gasoline prices are also (way) down from June peaks.

Figure 1: Oil price of WTI, monthly average (blue), and NYMEX futures price as of 11/4 (brown), $/bbl, on log scale. Source: EIA via FRED, ino.com. 

While futures prices show a decline (both now, and back in October), the EIA STEO forcast from  October was for price increase. Presumably, when the November STEO comes out, that pattern will persist. (That being said, statistical analyses usually indicate futures outperform most forecasts, although STEO forecasts do pretty well.)

Gasoline prices for regular have also fallen.

Figure 2: Price per gallon of regular, $/gallon (blue), and real price, 2020$/gallon (red), on log scale. Real price calculated using core CPI, October CPI using nowcast as of 11/4. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: EIA via FRED, BLS via FRED, Cleveland Fed, NBER and author’s calculations.


Application of Johansen maximum likelihood method, 1991M02-2022M10, rejects null of no cointegration at 5% level for trace, max eigenvalue statistics. trend in VAR, in cointegrating vector; 5 lags in levels.

log(gasprice) = 0.72 log(oilprice)

Bold face denotes significance at 5% msl.

Gasoline prices respond to gasoline-oil price relationship with statistical significance, but oil prices do not respond to the gasoline-oil price relationship.

85 thoughts on “Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices

  1. ltr


    November 6, 2022

    Each of the last eight years, if projections for 2022 hold, will be hotter than any prior to 2015, the UN said Sunday, * detailing a dramatic increase in the rate of global warming.

    Sea level rise, glacier melt, torrential rains, heat waves, and the deadly disasters they cause, have all accelerated, the UN’s weather agency World Meteorological Organization said in a report as the COP27 UN climate summit opened in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.

    “As COP27 gets underway, our planet is sending a distress signal,” said UN chief Antonio Guterres, describing the report as “a chronicle of climate chaos.”

    * https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/eight-warmest-years-record-witness-upsurge-climate-change-impacts

    1. ltr


      November 6, 2022

      Why is China the ideal host for COP14 on wetlands?
      By Alexander Ayertey Odonkor

      On November 5, the 14th Meeting of the Conference of the Contracting Parties to the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands (COP14), commenced in a hybrid format in Wuhan city, central China’s Hubei Province, at the East Lake International Conference Center, the main venue, alongside a parallel session at the International Conference Centre Geneva in Switzerland – the meeting is expected to end on November 13.

      This is the first time a Chinese city has hosted the Meeting of the Conference of the Contracting Parties to the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, an intergovernmental treaty that provides the framework for the conservation and wise use of wetlands and their resources. Adopted in the Iranian city of Ramsar in 1971, the convention which came into force in 1975, presently has nearly 90 percent of UN member states that are contracting parties – a concerted global effort dedicated to conserving wetlands.

      For a long period in human history, wetlands, which are known to perform indispensable functions such as mitigating flooding and acting as water-treatment facilities, support healthy ecosystems subjected to various forms of disturbances, which, in fact, are deleterious and poses existential threats to biodiversity as these disruptions accelerate climate change. To address this global challenge, the Ramsar Convention, the only global convention that promotes the sustainable development of wetland resources, was formed. The Convention has achieved encouraging outcomes in some countries, as it focuses on strengthening both national and international cooperation to conserve wetlands worldwide.

      In fact, it is far from a fluke that the People’s Republic of China, which became a member of the Ramsar Convention in 1992, is the main host of the COP14 – a feat that has been realized by dint of commitment to the Convention, an effort that aligns with China’s ecological civilization, a development concept, included in the Constitution of the Communist Party of China in 2012 and later enshrined in the country’s Constitution in 2018 that seeks the harmonious coexistence of mankind and nature. In sooth, China’s dedication to this goal is exemplary and definitely worthy of emulation worldwide.

      For example, at the COP14, seven Chinese cities including Wuhan, Panjin, Nanchang, Yancheng, Jining, Liangping and Hefei will receive the prestigious certificates of “international wetland cities,” a recognition that encourages cities close to wetlands – particularly designated Ramsar Wetlands of international importance – to enhance the conservation and wise use of wetland resources to realize sustainable development.

      With seven cities newly added to the list, China is now home to an impressive 13 “international wetland cities” out of the world’s total of 43, becoming the global leader in this field. In fact, China’s unflinching commitment and investments dedicated to conservation and wise use of wetland resources, which notably includes establishing and improving the legal framework to protect wetlands, implementation of systems for protection management, investigation and monitoring, project planning together with strengthening international cooperation to fulfill the country’s obligation under the Ramsar Convention, has certainly paid off.

      The recent survey by the National Forestry and Grassland Administration shows that in the past decade, China has created and restored over 800,000 hectares of wetlands, which includes 64 wetlands of international importance, 29 of national importance and 1,021 of provincial importance….

    2. ltr


      October 25, 2022

      China’s TanSat satellite detects, reports human-caused carbon dioxide

      China’s carbon dioxide monitoring satellite TanSat has produced its first batch of human-caused carbon dioxide emission (CO2) signatures, offering a scientific basis for the country’s efforts to combat global warming.

      The space-based monitor detected carbon emissions from human activities based on TanSat’s CO2 observations together with nitrogen dioxide (NO2) measurements from the European satellite Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor, according to a study * published Tuesday in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

      TanSat, launched in 2016, is China’s first global carbon dioxide monitoring satellite, with “Tan” standing for “carbon” in Chinese.

      The 620-kg satellite TanSat, sent into a sun-synchronous orbit about 700 kilometers above Earth, is monitoring the CO2 concentration, distribution and flow in the atmosphere. Recently, new algorithms were uploaded onto the TanSat devices to greatly improve its measurement precision.

      An international team of Chinese and Finnish researchers used TanSat data captured in May 2018 near the northern Chinese city of Tangshan and in March 2018 near Tokyo. They compared the captured data to nitrogen dioxide measurements on the same dates over the same cities, according to the study.

      The CO2-to-NO2 ratios in Tangshan and Tokyo were found to align with the emission inventories, “an important step in TanSat data analysis,” said Janne Hakkarainen, the paper’s co-author.

      “The next step is to infer emissions and to prepare for the TanSat-2 constellation including the joint analysis of CO2 and NO2 plumes,” said Hakkarainen, who had worked with the Finnish Meteorological Institute.

      TanSat is China’s first CO2 monitoring mission to conduct research on the global carbon cycle. The new generation of TanSat mission, TanSat-2, is now in the design phase, said the paper’s co-author Liu Yi, an Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) researcher.

      TanSat-2 is a constellation of satellites distributed into at least two orbits in the morning and afternoon to cover a city or a point source twice a day.

      It is expected to be used to monitor cities with an 800 to 1,000-kilometer-wide swath to record the gradient of carbon dioxide from the city’s central region to rural areas, and it will use a 500-meter footprint size to improve the emission estimation accuracy, Liu noted.

      “Our goal is to use satellite measurements to improve our knowledge of the carbon cycle and to further analyze and constrain the carbon dioxide sources and sinks and their uncertainties,” Liu said.

      * https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-022-2237-5

  2. ltr


    November 6, 2022

    Clean-energy industry benefits villagers in north China

    HOHHOT — In a sleepy village in north China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, solar-powered streetlights outside rows of houses switch on as the night closes in, while the local residents busily prepare their suppers using fresh vegetables grown in their yards.

    This is the daily scene in Huangyangcheng Village in the city of Ulanqab, thanks to a photovoltaic power station project introduced by the local government.

    The villagers were offered 144 new houses free of charge by the company that took the lead in launching a new-energy project near the village in 2015.

    Among the villagers who have benefitted is Li Zhanbiao, who says the free housing has enabled locals to pursue much better lives.

    “Before moving into the new house, we used to live in a 30-square-meter adobe house. In 2016, we began our brand-new life in the well-furnished house. We didn’t even need to buy extra basic furniture,” said Li.

    The clean-energy industry values Inner Mongolia for its natural advantages. Located in the middle of the region, Ulanqab is rich in wind- and solar-power resources, and in recent years, the booming new-energy industry has become a new driving engine for the local economy.

    Someone with an active role in this local boom is Liu Penghui, who runs the Dabanliang wind farm. Originating from central China’s Hunan Province, Liu has been working in the city in Qahar Right Wing Middle Banner for about a year.

    For Liu, the most impressive thing about Ulanqab is the strong wind that blows through it.

    “The locals often quip that ‘The wind blows in Ulanqab only once each year, but that lasts from spring to winter,'” Liu said.

    The fierce wind has become a cash cow for the wind farm.

    “Since June 2018, the Dabanliang wind farm has generated a total of 540 million kWh of electricity, sufficient volume to meet nearly four years’ demand for 250,000 people, if each of them consumes 600 kWh per year,” Liu said….

  3. w

    “Gasoline prices are also (way) down from June peaks.”

    Funny how all the articles on news websites show photos of gas station signs with $5+ prints… while the actual price here (Minnesota) has been in the mid-$3 range for months.

      1. pgl

        Chris Christie kept NJ state gasoline taxes low but then he had no money to fix the roads. Gee Bruce – do make sure you know how to buy tires cheap.

      2. pgl

        Felix Richter
        Data Journalist?

        Brucie – this column was old news and no analysis. I guess that is what you think is a contribution. Which is why those Georgia pre-schoolers are all laughing at you.

      3. pgl

        Bigger picture? Your boy only rehashes what JohnH has repeatedly noted. I guess you have not bothered to read Dr. Chinn’s more detailed analysis which shows some Americans have seen real wage increases.

        Seriously Bruce – why do you comment here when you cannot be bothered to read the posts here? DUH!

        1. Bruce Hall

          Aw, pgl, mid-October is “old news”? Come on, man! (h/t to old uncle Joe)

          So, you think it takes a Piled Higher and Deeper to recognize that wages are trailing inflation? So, you think that the people buying goods don’t recognize that their incomes are not keeping up with inflation? Oooo, you must be on old uncle Joe’s staff. I’ll let you have a few days to recover from the 8th.

          1. pgl

            Thanks for proving once again that you cannot read. My point was simple – your “news” been discussed over and over here. Come on Bruce – you do not need to prove your are really dumb. We all know that.

      4. Anonymous

        To wit, after Bidenflatioin the typical American household has 11 months’ income to pay 12 months of household expenses.

        Flipping Congress may [please God] reverse policy-induced crime waves; policy-induced destabilized communities; policy-induced fentanyl deaths; policy-induced fossil fuels supply shortfalls; policy-induced inflation; policy-induced recession; . . .

      5. pgl

        “Real average hourly earnings for all employees” aka real mean wages. Gee Brucie – Dr. Chinn has a new post just for you. He shows real median wages, which have shown a different pattern. OK – you do not know the difference between mean v. median so hey!

  4. AS

    For the consumer and voter, a difficulty of comparing actual gasoline prices with “real” gasoline prices is that the consumer and voter probably operate with nominal comparisons. The average monthly price of regular gas per gallon for the month of October 2021 was $3.40 using FRED series, GASREGW. For October 2022 GASREGW showed an average price of $3.82 per gallon, or in increase of 12.4%. For the week ending Monday, 10/31/2022 FRED reports an average price of $3.74 per gallon. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW/

    For oil companies, comparing “real” prices, seems to soften the claim of price gauging.

  5. AS

    Even after checking data, I understated the year over year percent change in GASREGW prices.
    October 2021 price was $3.291 per gallon and the October 2022 price was $3.815 per gallon.
    This shows a year over year percentage change of 15.9%.

  6. pgl

    Hershel Walker offers his “insights” on this issue:


    “And the biggest threat to democracy is to have someone like [incumbent Democratic] Senator [and Reverend Raphael] Warnock vote against our Keystone pipeline, which put us under international threat,” Walker proclaimed. “I think right now that’s a threat and uh, that’s a security threat going to our enemies for energy. That’s a threat. That’s the biggest threat to democracy that they have.”

    Yea I get it. Trump and his racist minions wanted their black “boy” in the Senate but me thinks they have found the dumbest clown God ever created.

  7. Barkley Rosser

    Well, they jumped quite sharply on Friday, with WTI over $90 and Brent pushing $100 on rumors of shortages in OPEC nations, although all that could easily turn around and not that big of a deal in the larger picture probably.

    Of course for the election coming right up, this most recent hike is probably too late to show up in those politically sensitive gasoline prices before the election, which seem to have gone basically flat in the last couple of weeks.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      On this last day before the election, crude oil down slightly, although WTI still over $90, while I saw one station where I am raising its gasoline price by 3 cents, although no others, while I suspect the general picture remains that gasoline prices have been roughly constant recently in the final runup to the election in most of the country.

  8. Macroduck

    Off topic, income shares and inflation –

    The role of profiteering in risi g prices has been a common topic here of late, so here’s my ha’penny:

    In thinking about factors contribution to inflation, a single perspective is not as informative as multiple perspectives. We understand that profits have risen faster than labor compensation and faster than inflation in the post-recession period of heightened inflation. That point has been repeatedly made and demonstrated. The point that rising profits stand as evidence that inflation is at least partly an aggregate decision, and not simply the mechanical result of rising input costs, is obvious.

    The graphic presentation of the rise in profits vs compensation is generally made in terms of % change in the two series – for instance:


    That presentation is useful, but misses an important point from the policy perspective – labor compensation is, on average, the largest component of retail prices. Here’s a look at profits and compensation in levels:


    If you want to slow the rise in retail prices, you might focus on the largest input. That’s especially true if the policymaker has a Phillips curve model foremost in mind. That’s our Fed.

    It’s also very likely that slowing demand growth will hit profits harder than labor compensation:


    So while Fed officials continue to feed the notion that they are the enemy of labor, they are likely to do harm to profits, as they have already done to capital gains. Still, it is worth pointing out that profits have risen nearly as much as or more than compensation in dollar terms in some recent quarters:


    That is a rare occurance and mostly a recent one. Prior to 2002, it last happened in the 1950s. That strongly suggests a strctural shift to the disadvantage of workers.

    Fed officials aren’t denying any of this. Powell has said the Fed’s tool are limited to demand management, so the Fed aims to reduce demand to contain inflation, no matter the root cause. Whether the Fed’s course is a wise one is open to question. It is certainly true, though, that the Fed lacks the tools to shift non-financial income shares between profits and labor compensation, other than through the greater sensitivity of profits to business cycles.

    So while the Fed has certainly fostered growth in financial profits, capital gains and the like, relative to income earned through productive activity, the Fed can’t really be blamed for the rise in income shares going to non-financial profits. That falls to other branches of government.

    The immediate problem with Fed policy is Fed officials’ judgement of the relative importance of inflation in economic welfare and whether Fed policy judgement has become more reactionary rather than forward looking. I give them poor marks for both, but I’m just one guy.

    1. pgl

      Thanks for this. That Angrybear post was picking up on a Kevin Drum graph, which quite frankly struck me as a bit odd. Your discussion put this whole thing in better perspective.

    1. pgl

      The legend says this will be updated today (FRED is reporting weekly data). One mystery – why is diesel not falling as fast as regular gasoline?

      1. Bruce Hall

        I read an interesting article about diesel fuel prices and it said it uncovered a secret principle about market pricing based on something called supply versus demand. It’s pretty complex, so I won’t go into detail.

          1. pgl

            Bruce Hall
            November 7, 2022 at 7:29 pm

            Gee when I asked my question I was hoping for an adult explanation. What does Bruce Hall do? Provide us a definition of scarcasm? Yea Bruce Hall is incapable of being an adult.

        1. pgl

          Bruce Hall pretends he gets market based economics but he also (above) applauds the Republican governor of Georgia for letting him get subsidized gasoline? Is he just another MAGA hat inconsistent little twit OR is he too stupid to understand how road repairs are paid for. I know, I know – he is both a partisan driven little twit AND really, really STOOOOPID.

  9. pgl

    How gutless is MSNBC?


    Tiffany Cross is not a racist but Tucker Carlson is. Carlson has been attacking Ms. Cross with his usual dishonesty and blatant racism. Yea Tucker called Tiffany a racist but that is BS. So does MSNBC defend her? No they fired here. Now Faux News should fire Tucker but Faux News realizes blatant racism sells to their disgusting viewers.

    1. ltr


      January 4, 2018

      Manufacturing Productivity & Compensation, 1988-2022

      Output & Real Compensation * Per Hour

      * Includes wages, salaries, and employer costs for employee benefits.

      (Percent change)


      January 4, 2018

      Manufacturing Productivity & Compensation, 1988-2022

      Output & Real Compensation * Per Hour

      * Includes wages, salaries, and employer costs for employee benefits.

      (Indexed to 1988)

  10. rsm

    《statistical analyses usually indicate futures outperform most forecasts, 》

    So, noise, because futures are used to hedge primarily, and prices can go either way while hedgers win?

    I.e. if futures are in backwardation then don’t you sell front months and buy back months, expecting them to rise?

    Where is this knowledge in yr analysis?

  11. Steven Kopits

    Why a log scale? It adds nothing to our understanding, and merely confuses the size of price movements.

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      Steven Kopits: See your comment on Jim Hamilton’s post extolling the use of logs.

      Steven Kopits lauded Jim Hamilton’s February 23, 2014 post on logarithms:

      Hugo André February 23, 2014 at 5:43 pm
      Lovely blog post.
      I have had to learn to work with logarithms as part of my economics education but I had not (until now) realized just how helpful they can be.

      More of this kind of thing, please.

      Steven Kopits February 24, 2014 at 5:38 am
      Let me agree with, Hugo. I encourage you to do teaching snipets like this one. Some of us took econ a long time ago, and a brief refresher on various topics is very welcome.

      What is it with you?

      1. pgl

        I think Stevie has to chirp about something each and every morning. The rest of us simply drink a cup of coffee.

      2. Steven Kopits

        Logs can be useful, particularly for incorporating percent changes. What is the purpose here? The steepness, the term structure, of the futures curve is important to our understanding of expectations. But it’s all cramped into a narrow band, so you can’t eyeball the graph. In any normal analysis, the high oil prices are more important that the low oil prices. The difference between, say, $30 and $50 is not particularly important for the macro economy. The difference between $100 and $120 may be the difference between a little slower growth and an oil shock. You’re obscuring the important part of the curve. To what benefit? What does the log scale tell us in the case that a linear scale does not?

        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          Steven Kopits: In a regression analysis of pass through, I typically regress either a log difference of gasoline prices on a log difference of oil prices, or in cointegration analysis, a log on a log. So, the graphical representation most closely matches what is used in the regressions.

  12. Steven Kopits

    So, as to the futures curve: What does it tell us about the market belief in those Russian oil production cuts, estimated at 2 mbpd by the EIA, from December? Does the market believe these cuts will happen at all?

    And if so, what does it say about the allies oil sanctions policy?

    Meanwhile, I would point out that Zelenskyy just asked for Euro 38 billion in immediate aid. I have described the sanctions and oil price cap policies as “insane” in the comments here and as a “mortal danger to Ukraine” elsewhere. And that was six months ago.

    I haven’t changed my mind.

    1. pgl

      “I haven’t changed my mind.”

      NO ONE cared the first time you uttered that babble. We still do not care.

      1. Steven Kopits

        You’re suggesting that the administration’s and the western allies’ oil sanctions policy is a matter of indifference. Its’ not.

        1. Macroduck

          Stevie? Are you so infected with campaign-speech that you willfully misconstrue the obvious meaning of simple sentences? What am I saying? You act this way whenever the moodstrikes you.

          Two sentences – one quoting you saying what you think, the other answering “who cares?” The obvious meaning is that nobody cares what you think. Only dishonesty or severely limited intelligence could read those two sentences in reference to anything else, as you have done. Pick one.

          Neither is likely to instill confidence among clients, but that’s OK. I assume you’ve given up on earning a living as a consultant. The idea now is to use “consultant” as part of your bio while hunting up money from right-wing propaganda spigots.

          1. Steven Kopits

            I don’t think you understand what I am saying. It’s actually an important point if the allies’ oil sanctions and price cap policies fail, and predictably so. That’s not a trivial point. If you think it is, well, let me categorically disagree.

          2. pgl

            ‘Steven Kopits
            November 8, 2022 at 9:33 am
            I don’t think you understand what I am saying.’

            Like it is our fault that your writing is dreadful?

          3. Steven Kopits

            We are way over your pay grade. I understand that you don’t understand the implications of the term structure of the futures curve for material, anticipated supply disruptions. To your mind, the futures curve tells us nothing. By contrast, I believe it suggests a fundamental disconnect between the EIA (STEO) and oil traders about the impact of oil sanctions on Russia. The EIA anticipates a near 2 mbpd loss of supply starting next month; the futures curve suggests no such disruption. We are seeing a bau term structure of the futures curve, all but indistinguishable from the futures curve before the war. If the futures curve is correct, the sanctions will have failed. And, indeed, that is the intent of the western powers, now terrified of the public reaction to soaring oil and gas prices. The intent is to appear to be doing something, while in reality ensuring that the oil flows.

          4. pgl

            “Steven Kopits
            November 9, 2022 at 7:43 am
            We are way over your pay grade. I understand that you don’t understand the implications of the term structure of the futures curve for material, anticipated supply disruptions. To your mind, the futures curve tells us nothing.”

            My pay grade? You love this little insult but guess what worthless little consultant. My clients do pay me for my understanding and integrity. Your clients pay you for your MAGA style nonsense and utter stupidity.

            Do not presume what I think. Try READING what I write for once. I have read your babble which tells me you are one arrogant idiot.

    2. pgl

      Steven Kopits
      November 7, 2022 at 2:27 pm
      Fine. But that’s not a regression.

      Dr, Chinn’s reply to you involved “Cointegrating relationship”.

      Dr. Hamilton literally invented such a useful concept that I have noted it quite often in my consulting work. Then again my clients are not like yours – they expect honest useful analysis.

  13. ltr


    November 5, 2022

    Brazil, Indonesia and DRC in talks to form ‘Opec of rainforests’
    Spurred by Lula’s election, the three countries, home to half of all tropical forests, will pledge stronger conservation efforts
    By Patrick Greenfield – Guardian

    The big three tropical rainforest nations – Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo – are in talks to form a strategic alliance to coordinate on their conservation, nicknamed an “Opec for rainforests”, the Guardian understands.

    The election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, has been followed by a flurry of activity to avoid the destruction of the Amazon, which scientists have warned is dangerously close to tipping point after years of deforestation under its far-right leader, Jair Bolsonaro.

    During his first speech as president-elect, Lula pledged to fight for zero deforestation in the Amazon, while Colombia has proposed creating an Amazon bloc at Cop27, and Norway’s environment minister is moving to reinstate a billion-dollar fund to protect the rainforest after it was halted under Bolsonaro.

    Brazil, Indonesia and DRC are home to 52% of the world’s remaining primary tropical forests, which are crucial to avoiding climate catastrophe, and the conservation talks are fulfilling a campaign promise by Lula….

  14. pgl

    The Kremlin finally admits they got Trump elected in 2016:


    After adamantly denying interfering in the 2016 U.S. election that brought Donald Trump to power, a Kremlin insider has admitted that suspected Russian interference in American elections was real. “We have interfered, are interfering and will continue to interfere,” Yevgeny Prigozhin, a chief ally and favorite chef of Vladimir Putin said on Russian social media through his Concord Catering company on Monday. “Carefully, precisely, surgically and in our own way. During our pinpoint operations, we will remove both kidneys and the liver at once.”

  15. pgl

    Kevin Drum catches the WSJ lying to its readers about one aspect of the latest from BLS:


    “As the holidays approach and America’s full-time workers feel pinched by inflation, some are turning to second jobs to supplement their incomes. The October jobs report shows the number of Americans working part-time jobs in addition to their full-time jobs has increased 6%, year-over-year, to 4.5 million people, according to statistics from the Labor Department.”

    So says the WSJ – a claim that Kevin demolished. But hey – this kind of misrepresentation bails in comparison to the many lies from the likes of Bruce Hall and Princeton Steve. So if the WSJ wants to maintain its position as chief liar for the Republican Party, they need to step up their game.

    1. pgl

      There is so much wisdom in Barry’s latest. He is both smart enough and honest enough to realize this time may be different. While I have noted some large corporations are enjoying higher profit margins, I used to be happy that my favorite beer companies were not raising their prices as much as their costs. But then I went shopping today and damn did my local store jack up the prices of my favorite brews. I’m demanding a Congressional inquiry! Oh well my favorite wine is still reasonably priced!

      1. Ivan

        Oh yes for the substitution – may it work well this coming winter. I got both a German beer brewers advent calendar and a world wine advent calendar. That way I can substitute one for the other every day (you know switch half way through the day). May the Holidays come early and often.

      2. Anonymous

        favorite brew….

        mine is whatever the supermarket special ‘smallish brewery of the week’…… usually $13.99 per 12 pack, may last 2 or 3 months…..

        longtrail, smuttynose, saranac,…..

        an infrequent purchaser i might see the inflation.

  16. pgl

    Bruce Hall is crowing that Gov. Kemp has decided Brucie does not have to pay for Georgia’s roads:


    Yea Kemp is pandering to dumb hicks like Bruce Hall by taking away the funding of repairs for Georgia roads. But wait – prices go up in the next 5 weeks. I guess the roads will not be horrible by then and the normal people in Atlanta will have told racist Brucie boy he needs to spend his holidays in Mich.

  17. Anonymous

    I believe the bulk of the futures curve has been in backwardation for many months now. It’s really the norm when prices are much higher than normal, for the market to predict reversion to the mean. And the converse.

    A more interesting analysis is to look at 5 year futures over time, or for example 2025 futures over time. And on some reasonable time scale (to be able to see changes in the market outlook), say back to 2019 or so.

    1. Steven Kopits

      You have to pay holders of inventory to store it, hence the backwardation. The price will normally rise towards spot. Therefore, backwardation at ‘normal’ levels does not imply lower prices in the future; rather it compensates market participants for holding inventory.

      However, if backwardation is sufficiently steep, inventory will be brought forward to current consumption and backwardation may imply an expectation that oil prices will be lower in the future.

  18. Anonymous

    Looking at the DEC2024 contract (on the CME site), and just scanning manually for early NOV, I get:
    NOV17: 55
    NOV18: 52
    NOV19: 52
    NOV20: 42
    NOV21: 63
    NOV22: 74

    That’s just a manual scan, but shows the general direction. If you had the dataset, could look at full year averages or TTM or whatever. Obviously there is some day to day and month to month gyration, But overall story will be similar.

    So, sure, futures outlook is down versus a few weeks ago. But still relatively high, even for pre Covid era. I think the delat of 55ish to 75ish is moore significant than the last few days dropping form 80 to 75. The former is more ecomomicaly interesting. The latter is more political sound bite stuff (and selective, we only seem to get these blog posts after price drops, not increases.)

  19. Anonymous

    (The reason to look at DEC contract is that DEC is most heavily traded month, JUN next. HAs to do with hedging and the like. But the story is similar if you pick another nearby month, but prefer going to most fluid market.)

    1. ltr

      There has been no coronavirus caused death in China since May 26 of this year or more than 150 days ago.

      1. Ivan

        I know – its a miracle. Even death is afraid of making glorious dear leader look bad. So in China alone there is no longer any rate of death from Covid. Yet they institute zero-Covid policies against this harmless cold virus? Peculiar, but lets not question the logic of glorious leader.

  20. ltr


    November 3, 2022

    Cumulative Number of Child COVID-19 Cases

    As of November 3rd, over 14.9 million children are reported to have tested positive for COVID-19 since the onset of the pandemic according to available state reports. Nearly 105,000 of these cases have been added in the past 4 weeks. This week almost 30,000 child COVID-19 cases were reported. This marks the second consecutive weekly increase of reported child cases, up from the 23,000 cases reported the week ending October 20th.

    14,922,621 total child COVID-19 cases reported, and children represented 18.3% (14,922,621 / 81,431,254) of all cases

    Overall rate: 19,826 cases per 100,000 children in the population

    American Academy of Pediatrics
    Children’s Hospital Association

  21. ltr

    I should let you know since our official China propaganda commenter has not talked about Covid for some time.
    I should let you know since our official China propaganda commenter has not talked about Covid for some time.
    I should let you know since our official China propaganda commenter has not talked about Covid for some time.

    [ Such is the way in which a person can be consumed by racism. ]

    1. Ivan

      Racism is when someone is targeted BECAUSE of their race; not just because someone of a specific race is the target of criticism. The criticism of you for your slavish copy-paste of official Chinese “good news” propaganda in the comment section of this blog, has nothing to do with your race/gender and would be leveled just as strongly against Moses, if he was the poster.

    2. baffling

      once again, through silly comments, ltr displays his/her incredibly ignorant understanding of the term racism. one wishes ltr would simply learn definitions before throwing around words one simply does not understand. or we can play the same game: ltr continues to provoke this blog with more racist commentary.

    1. ltr

      idiotic zero Covid policy…
      idiotic zero Covid policy…
      idiotic zero Covid policy…

      [ Such is the disdain for an entire people. ]

      1. Ivan

        I am afraid the zero Covid policy is not the work of the entire Chinese people. It is the work of a deluded germaphobe dictator who refuse to listen to the experts and has the “entire people” on a course for big pain with minimal gain.

        I have disdain for that moron Xi who is responsible for this mess, and I feel sorry for the “entire people” who has and will continue to suffer under it. I guess you must have been raised under an authoritarian regime if you don’t get the concept the the leader os not the people.

      2. Ulenspiegel

        “Such is the disdain for an entire people.”

        You are obviously not intelligent enough or willing to understand, that the decision in respect to zero Covid was made at top in the Chinese government and is of course stupid as it does not provid a useful exit strategy. To sell critique as “disdain for an entire people” is therefore stupid because Chinese people did not have a say. Only a propagandist, who does not know when to shut up, would make your “argument”.

        I understand that you may do this as job, i.e. you have to write a certain number of pro-Chinese contributions per day, but if my assumption is wrong then there is the unevitable conclusion that you simply are only a useful idiot.

    2. Ivan

      Oh noooo, what happened to the daily numbers ?
      Oh noooo, what happened to the daily numbers ?
      Oh noooo, what happened to the daily numbers ?

      Now you are only showing the total number!
      Now you are only showing the total number!
      Now you are only showing the total number!

      Did those facts not fit your narrative?
      Did those facts not fit your narrative?
      Did those facts not fit your narrative?

      Is that what you learned at your learned school ?
      Is that what you learned at your learned school ?
      Is that what you learned at your learned school ?

      Cherrypick that which support glorious narrative and ignore the rest
      Cherrypick that which support glorious narrative and ignore the rest
      Cherrypick that which support glorious narrative and ignore the rest

      Also repeat 3 times to make it true
      Also repeat 3 times to make it true
      Also repeat 3 times to make it true

  22. Anonymous

    Did you post “prices are way up” articles when that was the direction? I admit to not following 24-7, so really is a question. But I seem to remember previous blog posts on gas price is dropping. Can’t recall the converse.

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