The 10yr-3mo term spread is remarkably synchronized for some large advanced economies.
Figure 1: 10 year – 3 month spreads for US (black), Germany (green), France (light blue), UK (tan), Japan (dark red), all in %. NBER defined US peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: OECD, NBER.
Not so much for emerging markets:
Figure 2: 10 year – 3 month spread for US (black), Brazil (green), India (blue), China (red), South Africa (purple), Korea (chartreuse), all in %. Source: OECD, Investing.com.
What does this mean for future economic activity? Stay tuned.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/06/ft-igm-june-survey-of-macroeconomists#comment-300243
June 13, 2023
@ —
“In this vast world, you may be like a small piece of toilet paper, but even so, you carry a big load of crap.”
[ The bullying is ceaseless; degrading, profane, prejudiced. Always viciousness. Imagine the need to degrade a person so. This is the way in which Jews were vilified and persecuted in Europe, leading to national expulsions and to the Inquisition and finally to the 1930s. ]
It is interesting that ltr = let tyranny reign brings up degrading an entire people.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/witnesses-accuse-russias-wagner-group-of-killing-9-chinese-miners-in-central-african-republic
Apparently Xi Jinping’s deep love of Putin means that Chinese miners’ deaths mean nothing, and Chinese miners’ deaths are worth rewarding Putin for, with Chinese help after Putin ordered the killing off of Chinese nationals. I wonder~~why Xi Jinping feels Chinese deaths mean nothing and he should give love to foreign leaders who murder Chinese?? Huh…… Maybe ltr = let tyranny reign can share with the classroom why Xi Jinping gives cookies and sweets to foreign leaders who murder Chinese??
You can see in the photo link below how much Xi loves leaders who murder his own race. “ltr” = Let tyranny reign, do you think that when the number one leader of China shows affection to another nation’s leader who has murdered Chinese, that showing affection to that leader both degrades himself and degrades all Chinese?? Or do you get a sense of deep pride when Xi Jinping glad-hands a murderer of Chinese??
https://images.app.goo.gl/8FdBKzjDg123fkHo8
Oh……. radio silence from “ltr” = let tyranny reign again.
This is like talking to Kopits about why he thinks wealthy white male employers should never be punished for providing incentives for illegal immigration. Same reaction. And I “never foresaw” that they would be so quiet when I made the inquiry. Watch what happens every time I ask these two village idiots the same question over and over and over. Will they go on being temporarily deaf, dumb, and blind every time the question is asked?? As Menzie says, stay tuned…….
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/06/term-spread-inversion-and-non-inversions#comment-300320
April 14
It is interesting that — = let tyranny reign brings up…
It is interesting that — = let tyranny reign brings up…
It is interesting that — = let tyranny reign brings up…
[ Imagine being viciously, profanely attacked by such a person over and over and over. Imagine such unalloyed viciousness. Imagine the need to degrade a person so. This is the way in which the Chinese Exclusion act was prepared and sustained for generations. This is the way in which Jews were vilified and persecuted in Europe, leading to national expulsions and to the Inquisition and finally to the 1930s. ]
@ Let Tyranny Reign
Have I forgotten to compliment you on your mastery of the English language?? Especially terminology which has historical relevance. You should have majored in linguistics. Noam Chomsky has nothing on you Let Tyranny Reign. Chomsky is just a poser, compared to you.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/06/term-spread-inversion-and-non-inversions#comment-300320
April 14, 2023
Maybe — = let tyranny reign can share with the classroom…
Maybe — = let tyranny reign can share with the classroom…
Maybe — = let tyranny reign can share with the classroom…
[ These repeated racist attacks are terrifying. These racist attacks are terrifying. ]
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/06/term-spread-inversion-and-non-inversions#comment-300320
April 14, 2023
“—” = Let tyranny reign, do you think that
“—” = Let tyranny reign, do you think that
“—” = Let tyranny reign, do you think that
Or do you get a sense of deep pride when — ——- glad-hands a murderer of Chinese??
Or do you get a sense of deep pride when — ——- glad-hands a murderer of Chinese??
Or do you get a sense of deep pride when — ——- glad-hands a murderer of Chinese??
[ These repeated racist attacks are terrifying. These attacks are blood libels, as the Jews of Europe terrifyingly experienced. ]
Here are the Chinese people:
https://english.news.cn/20230612/fa55c14cd8c24a3fb9efd01ecd3eebb0/c.html
June 12, 2023
Unraveling peace-loving DNA of Chinese civilization
BEIJING — “In this vast world, I may be like a small feather. But even so, I want this feather to carry a wish for peace.”
These are excerpts from the diary of He Zhihong, a Chinese peacekeeper who died in the line of duty while serving on a United Nations (UN) peacekeeping mission in Haiti in 2010. She was just 35.
Peace is in the blood of the Chinese people. Amity with neighbors, universal peace, and harmony without uniformity are values that have been cherished in the Chinese culture for millennia.
An aspiration for peace is one of the five defining attributes of Chinese civilization highlighted by President Xi Jinping at a high-profile meeting on cultural inheritance and development on June 2….
https://english.news.cn/20230303/c5d49170aff544e98aa6ef56ba88add2/c.html
March 3, 2023
China’s Xinjiang sees tourism rebound in first two months
URUMQI — Northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region has seen a steady recovery in tourism since the beginning of this year, thanks largely to booming ice-and-snow tourism.
Xinjiang received a total of 22.3 million visits in January and February, up 10.8 percent year on year, while its tourism revenue grew by 11.6 percent to 16.3 billion yuan (about 2.4 billion U.S. dollars), according to the regional culture and tourism department.
Located in the golden latitudes of ice and snow, Xinjiang is now home to 84 ski resorts and has become a preferred destination for winter sports fans….
[ Tens of millions of tourists come and go through Xinjiang, all through the year, and only look to return. ]
So tourists come to an area that committed genocide to a culture, and that makes everything ok? Its called whitewashing. Saudi arabia is doing it with sports today.
https://english.news.cn/20230428/41b135fd2e0846bb9883cba809d52540/c.html
April 28, 2023
Diplomats from 14 countries visit Xinjiang
URUMQI — Envoys from 14 countries, including Brazil, Iran, Indonesia, Pakistan, Ecuador and Senegal, visited northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from April 24 to 28 at the invitation of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Consuls general of 14 countries, stationed in different cities across China, visited the regional capital city of Urumqi, as well as Kashgar, Turpan and other locations in Xinjiang to experience first-hand the social and economic development of the region….
https://english.news.cn/20230603/0c161826aaa245a88026f3bafbddc34e/c.html
June 3, 2023
Arab League officials see different Xinjiang from the one portrayed by West
URUMQI — A delegation of diplomats and officials from the Arab League and its Secretariat said that they witnessed a different Xinjiang from the one that has been portrayed by Western media.
After attending the 18th senior officials’ meeting and the 7th senior official-level strategic political dialogue of the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum, the 34-member group visited northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from Tuesday to Friday….
[ Diplomats repeatedly come and go to Xinjiang, and there is learning and praise for what has been and is being accomplished. ]
Menzie stuck me with the adverts for CarShield, the French door air fryer, the 19.95 pill with three easy payments that’s going to give me gallstones and a failed kidney. And on top of it, Menzie turned up the TV station volume right at the exact moment Econbrowser went to a commercial break.
This “stay tuned” stuff is for the birds, not to mention I can’t get A-Team here anymore. “Stay tuned”…… and then when Menzie comes back after the last commercial break all Menzie can say is “Bye, folks, see you next time…… ” What the hell?? I sat through 14 commercials so Menzie could go “Bye folks, see you next time….. ” What’s next, placed advertising for house siding options??
Consultation on Reforming and Modernizing Canada’s Transfer Pricing Rules
https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/programs/consultations/2023/transfer-pricing-consultation/consulation-on-reforming-and-modernizing-canadas-transfer-pricing-rules.html
OK this is 109 pages of tax law babble but let me focus on this claim with respect to intercompany interest rates:
“it may be that an MNE group has a policy of borrowing from arm’s length parties only for terms of five years or less. However, the MNE group decides to capitalize its Canadian entity through a loan with a term of twenty years resulting in a higher interest rate than for a five-year term, even though twenty-year loans between other arm’s length parties (while they may exist) are rare.”
Two premises are at play here: (1) no one should be allowed to have the term of a loan be greater than 5 years; and (2) the term structure is upward sloping.
OK (1) is just false but the Canadian Revenue Agency really thinks it can pretend (1) is valid. Even so, does anyone at the Canadian Revenue Agency know how to look up interest rates. Putting out this document now when the term structure is inverted is almost as dumb as your typical comment from JohnH or CoRev.
Now the Canadian Revenue Agency is living in your head along with John H and I? 😉
Do you have a clue who the Canadian Revenue Agency even is? Hey CoRev – it is the Canadian version of the IRS and their agents are knocking at your door. Better call your Proud Boy comrades so they can attack these Canadian revenue agents for you.
Oh wait – maybe little CoRev is telling us that revenue agents always get it right. Dude – don’t tell your buddies at your next KKK meeting.
😉 I see I’m still living there even though part of a crowd.
The fool believes he has power over others, a common failing of fools who believe they must constantly expose their superior intellect in all dealings and transactions.
What they expose, of course, is not their infallibility but the foolishness they happily share in common with other fools desperate to be noticed.
Even another head in which we live. 😉 Where’s that ole list of liberal/Biden successful policies?
Severely lacking, both in intellect and creativity, the fool—like a recovering victim of head trauma—constantly repeats himself. His repetitions daily worsened by his near uncontrollable BDS (Biden Derangement Syndrome).
Someone told me that you are Econned are now dating. You two were made for each other.
The fool now believes he has allies referring to this new triumvirate as “we.”
One of his newfound compatriots is a Putin stooge who supports the Russian invasion and no doubt has no problem with Putin’s desire to Re institute the glory days of the USSR.
His other new pal has few qualms about regularly reproducing/regurgitating Chinese government propaganda on this site.
Hilariously, the fool portrays himself as a conservative, blissfully unaware of American conservatives’ decades old antipathy toward the USSR and “Red China.”
Fool him once and many times thereafter. He truly is a fool’s fool.
“fools who believe they must constantly expose their superior intellect in all dealings and transactions.”
This reminds me of someone. But they say it’s rude to talk bad about dead people.
Russia leasing Crimea? This idea from 9 years ago is being mentioned again:
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-26452298
Is there a commercial solution to the crisis in Ukraine?
Lord Owen, the former foreign secretary who has advised Russian businesses interests for some time, thinks there may be.
He told me that a settlement could, in his view, involve Russia negotiating with Ukraine a lease on Crimea – which he regarded as analogous to America’s lease on Guantanamo in Cuba. And the background, of course, is that Russia already has a lease till 2042 on its substantial naval base at the Crimean port of Sevastopol. Originally negotiated in 1991, it was extended by 25 years in fraught negotiations in 2010.Back then, the final pact involved Ukraine receiving substantial subsidies on Russian natural gas. If that lease was viewed by the world as ethically tolerable, how big a leap would it be to negotiate a lease on all Crimean territory? There is an argument that via a lease and negotiation of rent, at least the rest of the Ukraine would receive some kind of economic benefit for Russian occupation of Crimea.
Conservative activist Tom Fitton argued to Donald Trump that the White House documents were his to keep, according to a new report
https://www.businessinsider.com/tom-fitton-told-trump-white-house-documents-were-his-cnn-2022-8
As the National Archives and Records Administration asked former President Donald Trump to return any missing White House documents he may have taken with him, one conservative activist was telling Trump that the records were his to keep, according to a new report. Tom Fitton, president of conservative activist group Judicial Watch, argued to Trump that the White House files belonged to him and that he should not have let the National Archives and Records Administration “strong-arm” him into returning the documents, according to a CNN report that cited three anonymous sources. “The moment Tom got in the boss’ ear, it was downhill from there,” a source close to Trump told CNN. Fitton cited a 2012 case involving Judicial Watch and an attempt to obtain recordings from former President Bill Clinton’s time in office to argue that the documents from his term in office belong to the former president, CNN reported.
OK this from August 22 but the news is rehashing this now that one of Trump’s lawyers has noted he told Trump to turn over the documents. Anyone who listened to Judicial Watch is an utter moron.
“The moment Tom got in the boss’ ear, it was downhill from there”
The biggest leadership failure of Trump is his ability to selectively get advise from complete morons, as long as they tell him what he want to hear. Evaluating sources and information based on merit is not even a concept he can understand. That may be one of the connections between him and his cult members. It may also be why he is such a good conman – he can suspend reality and believe his own con.
Calculated riskhas an interesting piece from Lawler about interest rates and spreads between 10-year treasuries and 30-year mortgages.
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-update-on-mortgagetreasury
One thing I would like to know is to what extend the Fed is influencing yield curves by their purchases or lack of purchases of long and short term treasuries. Is the Fed big enough to affect markets or at least the psychology of markets – and if so how are they affecting things?
Interesting discussion:
‘there is no reason why mortgage rates should be anchored solely to the 10-year Treasury yield. The timing of expected cash flows (regular payments and pre-payments) from a pool of mortgages don’t even remotely resemble the timing of known cash flows from a 10-year Treasury security, and mortgage valuation is based on discounted cash flows across the whole yield curve. As such, one would expect that the shape of the yield curve would impact the spread between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury, with a steeper curve producing a narrower mortgage/10-year spread and an inverted curve producing a wider mortgage/10-year spread.’
Part of the widening of this particular spread had to do with the fact that 30-year government bond rates were higher than 10-year government bond rates. Of course, our resident Economic Know Nothing JohnH insisted the only way to measure spreads was the 30-year mortgage rate minus the 10-year government bond rate. This housing economist has noted why Jonny boy’s little insistence only shows Jonny boy has no clue what he babbles about.
Optimal Blue 30-Year Fixed-Rate Conforming Index
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OBMMIC30YF/
I did not know this series existed until I read that interesting discussion.
Dear Mr. “Stay Tuned” (Prof. Chinn)
Is the subtext to this post that you think there is a chance for a “global” recession at roughly the same time America has its recession (some postulate 2024)??
lazy and inquiring minds of the Southern Plains want to know. I need something to ponder while drinking Dark Modelo in the backyard, suffering cruel summer heat with my one piece thermo-molded country plastic chair. Signed, Goofball.