2023 q4/q4 growth relatively unchanged. Modal guess for recession start date moved to 2024Q1-Q2 (survey results here; FT article).
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Survey of Professional Forecasters May median (blue), FT-Booth School June median (red square), FT-Booth School high/low (gray +), GDPNow of 6/8 (sky blue square), potential GDP (bold gray) all in billions Ch.2012$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2023Q1 2nd release, FT-IGM (June 2023), Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, CBO (February 2023), and author’s calculations.
The survey median was slightly higher than my response (+0.9% for 2023 q4/q4), while I was considerably more pessimistic with respect to downside and upside risks (my low/high range was -1.0% and +2.0%, vs. survey +0.5 to +2.2%).
My estimate was for recession in 2023Q3-Q4 (same as my March guess). The current modal response is 2024Q1-Q2, moving back from the previous modal response of 2023Q3-Q4.
Source: FT-Booth School survey, June 2023.
The pushing back of the recession start date is unsurprising given the incoming data, where nowcasts have exceeded early May forecasts, and the resolution of debt ceiling uncertainty.
Note that end-2023 is consistent with term spread models (using a 50% threshold), as discussed in this post.
Given this guess for the beginning of the recession, it’s not too surprising what survey respondents think is the timing of peak Fed funds and beginning of reductions (2023Q3 for the former, 2024Q1-2024Q2 for the latter). It’s interesting to think that we’re less than three weeks away from Q3.
Respondents believe that peak Fed funds will be between 5.5%-6%, which matches my view (and is consistent with market implied forecasts [Atlanta Fed probability tracker, accessed 6/12/2023]).
Menzie tipping his poker cards on recession timing call (I know, not prediction, but best estimate). Color me mildly shocked.
Politico headline:
“Catfight!!! Catfight!!!! Catfight!!!! Read all about it, Catfight!!!! Catfight!!!!”
“House Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY was forced to send his members home early after a splinter group of 11 conservative hard-liners, days after being steamrolled by the bipartisan debt-ceiling deal, essentially hijacked the floor by voting down a House rule for the first time in two decades.
The group’s gripes have been hard to pin down, with wide-ranging accusations of broken promises and strong-arm tactics aimed at various GOP leaders. But the upshot of their protest is simple: McCarthy cannot move any significant legislation across the House floor until the rebel faction is brought back into the fold.
And as of this morning, there’s no sign that has happened. The hard-liners are still grumbling and are considering tanking more bills teed up for floor action this week. Said one senior GOP aide to Playbook last night: “I’m not going into this week assuming that any of the rules will pass.”
We heard much the same from one of the 11 rebels last night. “We could be sitting here all week just twiddling our thumbs,” Rep. TIM BURCHETT (R-Tenn.) told us.
‘THEY NEED TO COOL IT’: Burchett’s role in the revolt is noteworthy because he’s far from McCarthy’s worst nightmare. He consistently backed McCarthy for speaker back in January, he’s not a member of the ever-restive Freedom Caucus, and he has kept his criticism focused on policies, not on personalities.
But he’s still smarting over the debt-ceiling deal, and he’s not ready to look past his concerns yet. “I just feel like we gave too much,” he said. “Conservatives aren’t represented at the table, fiscal conservatives, when the decisions are being made.”
Any solution, he said, lies with McCarthy — and he’s pushing for a group meeting between the speaker and his critics. While McCarthy has met with and spoken to a few of the 11, Burchett said, “That divide and conquer stuff just isn’t working.”
“I just wish we could put all the egos aside and just come down here and meet,” he said. “I just feel like it needs to be McCarthy … not a bunch of the ‘advisers’ or whatever. Not one-on-one, but all at once, and just listen to what they say for 30 minutes.”
Burchett is among those grumbling about leadership’s alleged arm-twisting and retaliatory threats aimed at the conservative dissidents. Tongues wagged last week over reports that Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE threatened to keep a bill sponsored by hard-right Rep. ANDREW CLYDE (R-Ga.) off the floor amid the debt-limit wrangle. Scalise denied the report, and Clyde’s bill — which would overturn a Biden administration firearms rule — is scheduled for a vote this week.
But Burchett said he was concerned about an entirely separate episode of intimidation he witnessed, one that didn’t involve Scalise at all, but someone he called “the chairman” whom he refused to identify further.
“It just needs to stop,” he said. “Everybody has a cell phone and everybody’s capable of recording these things — and eventually one of these little beat-downs is going to be recorded, and it’s not going to look good, and they need to cool it.” ”
Baaaaaahahahahahahahahaahaha!!!!! Maybe trumpie can “unite” them and they can all open-mouth kiss at their next presser in trumpie’s prison cell.
Kinda looks like the angry-pants faction knows it can’t replace McCarthy, so it’s going to neuter him, instead. Real mature.
So bringing together all those house members take a lot of work. The TN child want them to work him with carrots not sticks. But the problem with applying carrots is that when you give one to one child, then all the other children also want a carrot. But when you apply the stick to one child none of the other says “me, me, me too”. This will be fun to watch. The right wingers are forcing McCarthy to compromise with democrats – then throw a hissy fit because he is compromising with democrats – then he blocks them from passing statement bills that can never become law anyway – then they throw another hissy fit and block any legislation from passing.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/06/the-wisconsin-economic-outlook-improves
April 12, 2023
— has pulled the trick of exaggerating China’s position by indexing. This is a clear case of lying with statistics.
— also told us China leads the world in car exports even though they exported less than $9 billion worth of cars last year. It is like she has become JohnH II.
— has been pulling this cheap trick for years…. I tried to tell this to — back then and of course she just blew this off.
I just ignore her graphs as being utterly pointless.
Please tell — she has to read this before any more of her worthless FRED charts.
[ All this in response to documented comments, with no mention of any reader. The driving need however is to defame and intimidate. Such is prejudice. ]
The defender of China racist policies against Uyghurs cries “prejudice”. Nothing new un that. The jingoist defense her jingoism – big surprise.
I’ve told you before and I’ll tell you again: I’ll stop pointing out your dishonesty, your hypocrisy, your racism, when you stop being a dishonest, racist hypocrite. Up to you.
@ ltr
Did you need a handkerchief to wipe away all your crocodile tears??
Using quarterly data for industrial production quarterly percent change in, FRED series, INDPRO and recession indicator, FRED series, USRECM, the probit probability of recession using the model, USRECM C INDPRO_QQ_pct(-1) is currently 0.04 . The McFadden R-squared is 0.23, so on the low side of acceptable. The threshold value is 0.13. It will be interesting to see if the INDPRO report on Thursday changes the probability.
https://english.news.cn/20230612/fa55c14cd8c24a3fb9efd01ecd3eebb0/c.html
June 12, 2023
Unraveling peace-loving DNA of Chinese civilization
BEIJING — “In this vast world, I may be like a small feather. But even so, I want this feather to carry a wish for peace.”
These are excerpts from the diary of He Zhihong, a Chinese peacekeeper who died in the line of duty while serving on a United Nations (UN) peacekeeping mission in Haiti in 2010. She was just 35.
Peace is in the blood of the Chinese people. Amity with neighbors, universal peace, and harmony without uniformity are values that have been cherished in the Chinese culture for millennia.
An aspiration for peace is one of the five defining attributes of Chinese civilization highlighted by President Xi Jinping at a high-profile meeting on cultural inheritance and development on June 2.
The peaceful nature of Chinese civilization fundamentally determines that China will continue to build world peace, contribute to global development and safeguard the international order, said Xi, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, when addressing the meeting.
About 2,400 years ago, a great Chinese philosopher Mozi said that “the strong and the rich should not bully the weak and the poor.” And a military work from over 2,000 years ago put forward the wisdom of the “war-like state, however big it may be, will eventually perish.”
The pursuit of peace and harmony is deeply rooted in the spiritual world of the Chinese nation. This can be seen everywhere from the Confucian idea that “a gentleman should seek harmony in diversity and should not do to others what he would not like himself,” to Chinese sociologist Fei Xiaotong’s vision of a world in which countries treasure their own distinct heritages, appreciate other cultures and promote shared prosperity.
The peaceful nature of Chinese civilization fundamentally determines that China will continue to pursue exchanges and mutual learning among civilizations rather than cultural hegemony. It also determines that China will not impose its own values and political system on others. China is a champion of cooperation, not confrontation. Never will it dish out favors to acolytes and punishments to opponents, Xi said at the meeting on June 2.
Influenced by pro-peace ideologies, China has followed a path of peaceful development throughout its history of more than 5,000 years, leaving no record of colonization or aggression against any other country.
In Singapore’s maritime museum, a full-sized replica of a three-story treasure boat that set sail from China some 600 years ago is on display to honor the great Chinese navigator Zheng He.
Commissioned by the emperor of the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644), Zheng led the then biggest fleet in the world on seven expeditions, visiting over 30 countries and regions, including Singapore. In sharp contrast to Western powers that were busy making colonial expansions, they did not take a single inch of land, but instead brought Chinese silk, tea and porcelain to the people they encountered….
@ ltr
“In this vast world, you may be like a small piece of toilet paper, but even so, you carry a big load of crap.”
—-Uncle Moses, on the occasion of reading a garbage comment.
What a load of tripe. Take, for instance, Wikipedia’s lists hundreds of Chinese wars and major battles in this article:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_wars_and_battles
This is the legacy of “peace” ltr wants us to believe exists? Nonsense.
And how does a country whose citizens have “peace in their blood” have the “Warlord era” of the early 20th century?.
It just won’t wash.
There’s a new term for people like “ltr” (although it’s usually used to describe people on college campuses working in Gender Studies—the term is “cry-bullies”. Of course, it’s a way to force others to agree with you, or else you “concede” to being a monster. Those are the two choices “ltr” gives people. It doesn’t foster dialogue because some people in Gender Studies don’t want dialogue–and neither does ltr = “let tyranny reign”.
It’s the same thing Republicans did to Liz Cheney and the same thing the economics profession has tried to do to Isabella Weber. “Agree with us, or your thoughts are not valid”
https://english.news.cn/20230530/e6b6e31544f247c6abb42cf18ce60f41/c.html
May 30, 2023
Chinese Blue Helmets become vital force in UN’s peacekeeping efforts: spokesperson
BEIJING — A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said Tuesday that over the past three decades and more, China has sent over 50,000 peacekeepers to participate in United Nations peacekeeping operations (UNPKOs) in more than 20 countries and regions, and that Chinese Blue Helmets have become a vital force in the UN’s peacekeeping efforts.
May 29, 2023 was the 21st International Day of UN Peacekeepers….
How many of the Chinese blue helmets have died while performing a military/defense operation?? I can tell you— Since 1948 China has had 21 deaths in their UN ranks. For comparison France has had 115, Denmark has had 51, Finland 46, and UK has had 106.
I wonder why the divergence in deaths over those many years?? Superior Gōngfu defensive skills?? Or….. ?? Yeah, it must be the Gōngfu. Courageous, WOW.
https://www.101soundboards.com/sounds/133811-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha
It is interesting that ltr = let tyranny reign brings up the topic of Chinese nationals working overseas.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/witnesses-accuse-russias-wagner-group-of-killing-9-chinese-miners-in-central-african-republic
Apparently Xi Jinping’s deep love of Putin means that Chinese miners’ deaths mean nothing, and Chinese miners’ deaths are worth rewarding Putin for, with Chinese help after Putin ordered the killing off of Chinese nationals. I wonder~~why Xi Jinping feels Chinese deaths mean nothing and he should give love to foreign leaders who murder Chinese?? Huh…… Maybe ltr = let tyranny reign can share with the classroom why Xi Jinping gives cookies and sweets to foreign leaders who murder Chinese??
You can see in the photo link below how much Xi loves leaders who murder his people. Do you think Putin and Xi Jinping “rolled around in the sheets” later after this photo, ltr??
https://images.app.goo.gl/8FdBKzjDg123fkHo8
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-06-12/China-s-installed-non-fossil-electricity-generation-exceeds-50-percent-1kzXyHZvOEg/index.html
June 12, 2023
China’s installed non-fossil electricity generation exceeds 50 percent of total
The installed capacity of non-fossil fuel energy power generation in China has exceeded 50 percent, an official at the country’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday.
Non-fossil fuel energy power, such as wind, solar and hydro power, accounts for 50.9 percent of China’s total installed capacity, exceeding that of fossil energy, according to Yang Yinkai, NDRC’s deputy director, at a conference held in Shanghai. The achievement comes in advance of the country’s goal to have non-fossil capacity surpass that of fossil fuel by 2025.
China aims to have its carbon dioxide emission peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality in 2060.
Though the country’s energy consumption mix remains weighted toward fossil fuels, with coal accounting for 56.2 percent of total consumption last year, progress has been made in promoting green and low-carbon energy.
To accelerate energy transformation, the country has built large-scale photovoltaic and wind power bases in deserts in recent years, said Yang.
The country has also made efforts in coal-fired power units’ technical transformation for energy conservation, carbon reduction, replacement of low efficiency boilers and improving load regulation capacity, Yang added.
A structured matrix of large hydropower stations in the basins of major rivers have also been built, especially in the southwest….
Little Lindsey is playing dumb:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/former-air-force-lawyer-lindsey-graham-i-don-t-know-whether-trump-had-right-to-keep-top-secret-documents/ar-AA1cuK4M?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=9f8083ba60df4ce68415b8b6c09df584&ei=9
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who for years served as an attorney for the United States Air Force, feigned ignorance about the law on Tuesday when asked about former President Donald Trump’s claims about his right to keep top-secret government documents. While talking with CNN reporter Manu Raju on Capitol Hill, Graham was asked if he believed Trump could have saved himself trouble if he’d just complied with a subpoena to return all of the documents he had stashed at his Mar-a-Lago resort. “Most politicians get in trouble by self-inflicted wounds,” Graham replied, according to Raju. “Yeah I mean he believes he had the right to possess these under the Presidential Records Act. I don’t know whether that’s accurate or not.” In fact, it is demonstrably not accurate.
“Noise proves nothing. Often a hen who has laid an egg cackles as if she has laid an asteroid”
lindsey like strom thurmond spend a long career in the jag of the air national guard…… idk how long he was on active duty.
6 and 1/2 years. Have you tried this new thing called Google?? All the kiddies like it. They won the space race after Bill Gates stomped on Netscape.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/news/ex-donald-trump-aide-alyssa-farah-griffin-points-out-major-flaw-in-bathroom-lock-defense/ar-AA1cuVfk?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=6fbda7cc07e14e0fbe66f6fe55eaa2ec&ei=9
Kevin McCarthy’s defense of Trump leaving national security documents in the bathroom had something to do with their being locks on the door. But wait.
Pointing out a massive flaw in this argument, Farah Griffin said: “You lock bathrooms from the inside. It doesnt make any sense.”
Seriously – does McCarthy lock his own staff out from the bathrooms? I guess they have to go outside to take a pee?
Peak oil use by 2029?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-13/peak-oil-demand-is-coming-fast-for-transportation?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTY4NjY2NTY2NSwiZXhwIjoxNjg3MjcwNDY1LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJSVzcwTzVUMEcxS1cwMSIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJFNUE4M0NCRjYwQjE0NzEwOTU5QkQ0NjYyQzU0REI0NCJ9.3oVm3Ja-grMhBRNZfJduUh2C3cSFUsySV_WbELxWmwg
By 2027, electric vehicles will force a reversal to the era of rising demand for oil used in transportation, according to a new forecast by analysts at BloombergNEF. For areas outside of transportation — such as plastics, petrochemicals, manufacturing and agriculture — oil demand will continue to rise with no end in sight. But by 2029, BNEF expects the stark shift to EVs to outweigh all else and bring total demand to its apex.
As I understand Team Trump they are floating two supposed defenses of his stealing national security documents and letting them hang out all over Maro Lago. Trump’s lying lawyers are floating a bunch of BS about prosectorial abuse, which does not at all address the issues.
Now Trump not to be outdone claims Jack Smith planted evidence. Of course Trump has nothing to back up this claim but it worked for OJ Simpson so hey.
Rising rates, rapid expansion and private equity management practices claim a household name:
https://www.reuters.com/business/pyrex-kitchenware-maker-files-chapter-11-bankruptcy-2023-06-12/
11, not 7, so we can still cook chicken without knowing how.
Grandy’s, one of my favorite places to eat, for nostalgic reasons (and you can still get a pretty good meal for $4.99) is owned by a private equity fund now. And I parrot David Lee Roth “Where have all the good times gone??”
Would Dave Thomas put up with a $7 Biggie Bag?!?!?!?! I think not friends, I think not. And don’t get me started on McD’s service. Vanilla shakes that taste like weak Taffy??? [sigh]
By the way I am boycotting Panera for a few months now. They dared to sell me a $4 brownie. A singe brownie for $4!!!! Do I look like some F-ing corrupt TBN minister with 3 private jets or something?!?!?!?! $4 for a single brownie. I may never go back to Panera, the more I think about it the more steamed I get.
Cpi data for May show continued showing in y/y inflation, but that’s a misleading way to think about trends. We are going to get a demonstration of that misleadingquality in the next few months, as the base effect changes:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=167Mf
Once July, 2022 falls out, core services CPI, excluding shelter, will also show a sharp slowing in y/y inflation:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=167O1
Year-ago base effects don’t belong in forward-looking policy thinking.
Pointing out a massive flaw in this argument, Farah Griffin said: “You lock bathrooms from the inside. It doesn’t make any sense.”
It certainly makes sense if you are a foreign agent infiltrating Mar-a-Lago who wants to photograph top secret documents in privacy.
But better than that is the basement storage room lined with boxes containing Top Secret documents and conveniently on the opposite wall in the same room is a commercial business copy machine. Check out the third image on the right wall.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/photos-from-trump-indictment-show-boxes-of-classified-documents-stored-in-mar-a-lago-shower-ballroom
We don’t know…….. Ever scene Jennifer Lynch’s “Chained”?? Kevin McCarthy strikes me as a Bob type for sure. Definitely a guy into torture and putting locks where you don’t usually see them.
@ joseph</b
Nevermind the copy machine, what about the window in the 2nd photo?? Boy, it sure would take a Mission Impossible 007 spy to bust the latch or break open that window wouldn't it?? Who needs a copy machine or fax machine??~~when you can just grab 5 boxes at night and run. But according to our MAGA geniuses like CoRev, such a thing could never happen, and doesn't matter, because "Trump is President, and has comic book superpowers"
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/25/chinese-trespasser-at-trumps-mar-a-lago-resort-sentenced.html
“He’s President, therefor he has ‘the right’ to sell off America’s national defense secrets to all under God’s creation.”
*ever seen