Term Spreads for Country Groupings

US, Rest-of-Advanced, Emerging Markets, follow up on individual countries’ term spreads in yesterday’s post.

Figure 1: (5 to 10yr)-3mo Term Spread for US (black), for rest-of-advanced countries (blue), and emerging markets (pink), in %. NBER defined peak-to-trough US recession dates shaded gray. Source: Dallas Fed Database of Global Economic Indicators, accessed 6/15/2023, and NBER. 

Caution: Aggregates are US trade weighted (i.e., not GDP weighted). You can think of this as a graph of foreign term spreads, with greater weights on countries like Canada and China, with which the US trades a lot with.



76 thoughts on “Term Spreads for Country Groupings

  1. ltr


    June 13, 2023

    China gives green light to nuclear reactor that burns thorium – a fuel that could power the country for 20,000 years

    It has several advantages over uranium reactors, including safety, reduced waste, better fuel efficiency and suitability for use in arid landlocked areas

    The tech is expected to strengthen China’s energy security as the nation has abundant thorium reserves

    By Stephen Chen

    Beijing — China’s nuclear safety watchdog has issued an operational permit for the nation’s first thorium reactor, marking a significant milestone in the country’s pursuit of advanced nuclear technologies.

    The reactor, a two-megawatt liquid-fuelled thorium molten salt reactor (MSR), is located in the Gobi Desert city of Wuwei in Gansu province and is operated by the Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

    The permit, issued by the National Nuclear Safety Administration on June 7, allows the Shanghai Institute to operate the reactor for 10 years and it will start by testing operations….

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      ltr: Seriously, what does this have to do with term spreads? A little off-topic occasionally is fine. Please exercise a little restraint (at least as far as topics go).

      1. Macroduck

        You know she won’t comply. ltr moans about the behavior of others, without the least restraint on her own behavior.

        She has never honored your requests to remain on topic and has openly defied your requests not to copy and paste copyrighted articles. She excuses slavery while slinging accusations of racism. She abuses free speech rights here while China treats speech as a prosecutable offense:


        Revolution of our times.
        May people reign, proud and free, now and evermore. Glory be to thee Hong Kong.

        1. Noneconomist

          Easy now. She’s one of CoRev’s new pals along with JohnH. CoRev now proudly refers to them as “we.” Any criticism of them may well be termed racist, antisemitic, blood libel and whatever else they see fit to throw in.

      2. Moses Herzog

        “Johnny One Note” was more my problem with ltr. Although I suppose some could make the same complaint of me.

      3. ltr

        Seriously, what does this have to do with term spreads?

        [ China has invested heavily and carefully to protect against domestic inflation, especially in energy and food, agricultural and industrial materials. Also, the need has been for an increasingly open economy China not to be policy constrained as interest rates increase in the United States. The advance towards food and energy independence in China, especially a China that the United States has wished to “contain,” is impressive and instructive. ]

        1. Macroduck

          First, that’s a nonsense excuse for your rude behavior.

          Second, China’s dependence on food imports has increased with time and China has built more coal-fired power plants in recent years than the rest of the world combined, and imports coal. Not only have you made a nonsense excuse, but your no sense excuse is dishonest.

          Third, your dishonest, nonsense excuse is wildly hypocritical. China is to be admired for efforts toward food and energy independence (sic)? This is the same China with hegemonic aspirations toward the entire South China Sea. What about other nations’ independence? What about Tibetan inependence? Taiwanese independence? Why is it admirable for China to aspire to things China would deny to others?

      4. ltr


        April 15, 2023

        Inflation Rate for Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States, 2007-2022


        Brazil ( 8.3)
        China ( 0.9)
        France ( 2.1)
        Germany ( 3.2)
        India ( 5.5)

        Indonesia ( 1.6)
        Japan ( – 0.2)
        Turkey ( 19.6)
        United Kingdom ( 2.6)
        United States ( 4.7)


        Brazil ( 9.3)
        China ( 1.9)
        France ( 5.9)
        Germany ( 8.7)
        India ( 6.7)

        Indonesia ( 4.2)
        Japan ( 2.5)
        Turkey ( 72.3)
        United Kingdom ( 9.1)
        United States ( 8.0)

        1. pgl

          I guess you failed to notice that Japan has had lower inflation than China. And Japan’s interest rates are also lower than China’s interest rates. So I guess Japan is doing a better job than China is doing by your own measure.

      1. Baffling

        Stop whining and making false accusations of racism. And please keep your propaganda to yourself. Noyice how polite that request was?

        1. pgl

          Thank you for this informative comment and link. I suggested to JohnH that he might try reading what you provided. Then again – little Jonny boy has issues with reading adult conversations.

        1. baffling

          if this were a site for Chinese propaganda and history, then you would be correct, ltr. but it is site for economics. so you are wrong ltr.

          and let me follow up on the thorium commentary on this site. first, thorium reactor technology has been around for decades. this is not some great milestone, just because china finally made some progress. second, thorium relies on uranium or plutonium to continue its nuclear processes. it is not this benign and clean approach that ltr and johnh want you to believe. it is A solution, one of MANY solutions. and the Chinese propaganda that was posted? remember, this is an experimental facility, nothing remotely close to a commercial product. so ltr, it is not even a viable energy solution that you tried to use as an excuse to post on an economics blog. it is simply an experimental test case.

          why does ltr insist on posting what amounts to propaganda to promote technological progress in china that was already achieved elsewhere in the world decades ago? China has a space station? great, the usa and soviets did this 5 decades ago. china puts a rover on the moon? ditto, decades ago.

          ltr next would like to post the latest achievement. china has discovered a use for the wheel, and will now promote the advanced technology newly discovered by the ccp for export worldwide. free of charge to emerging markets courtesy of the ground breaking achievement of the ccp.

          ltr, please stop posting propaganda. the achievements you post are achievements for china, but rarely are they groundbreaking worldwide, where others have accomplished the task decades earlier. and certainly not pertinent to this economics blog. your behavior is rude every time you post such nonsense.

      2. JohnH

        Interesting read on Wikipedia about the history and benefits of Thorium: “Science writer Richard Martin states that nuclear physicist Alvin Weinberg, who was director at Oak Ridge and primarily responsible for the new reactor, lost his job as director because he championed development of the safer thorium reactors.[12][13] Weinberg himself recalls this period:

        [Congressman] Chet Holifield was clearly exasperated with me, and he finally blurted out, “Alvin, if you are concerned about the safety of reactors, then I think it may be time for you to leave nuclear energy.” I was speechless. But it was apparent to me that my style, my attitude, and my perception of the future were no longer in tune with the powers within the AEC.[14]

        Martin explains that Weinberg’s unwillingness to sacrifice potentially safe nuclear power for the benefit of military uses forced him to retire.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thorium-based_nuclear_power

        One of thorium’s major “disadvantages'” is its unsuitability to making nuclear weapons. Apparently China is less concerned about the need for more and more nukes than the “peace loving” militarists here.

        What’s also interesting is how lots of commenters here constantly go off topic, but only certain ones get called out for it. Is this comments sections supposed to be an echo chamber with its own Overton window?

        1. pgl

          That Wikipedia discussion was rather extensive which of course means little Jonny boy could not be bothered to read all of it. Had little Jonny boy actual READ his own link he might have noticed both the advantages and disadvantages of this source of energy. He might have noticed a lot of other nations have been working on this source of energy and for quite a while. No – little Jonny boy once again refuses to join the grown up table. Little Jonny boy might take a look at this comment if little Jonny boy ever hopes to be involved in an adult conversation:

          June 16, 2023 at 2:52 pm

        2. Noneconomist

          The hosts haven’t stopped you or ltr or CoRev from babbling, blabbering, and whining about supposed mistreatment, (while one delivers a daily dose of Chinese PR) so what’s the problem?
          What next for you? Joining ltr and claiming YOU’RE a victim of racial or ethnic prejudice? Grow up.

          1. pgl

            We know Jonny boy only reads the headlines of his own links which is why he missed this:

            Russia has been exporting cheap enriched uranium to the US since the Cold War. That’s in part because of Russia’s dominance in the global market. The country supplies about 43% of the world with enriched uranium. The US, meanwhile, has virtually stopped enriching its uranium, per The Times.

            It is true that the US is not producing uranium any more. Russia on the other hand is exporting uranium for CIVILIAN uses. Does this sound like two nations renewing the Cold War? Of course not unless one is the dumbest troll God ever created.

        3. pgl

          “One of thorium’s major “disadvantages’” is its unsuitability to making nuclear weapons. Apparently China is less concerned about the need for more and more nukes than the “peace loving” militarists here.”

          Jonny Know Nothing has no clue about the history or economics of nuclear power. Hey Jonny boy – I guess you have no idea how high uranium prices rose before the collapse of the Soviet Union. The economics was simple – military demand competed with civilian demand for uranium. Now with the high prices one would think this would have encouraged the development of thorium. Oh wait – little Jonny boy is incapable of thinking.

          Now after the Cold War ended, uranium prices fell below $9/pound as the military demand disappeared. Now that may have slowed the development of thorium. Of course this is basic economics which little Jonny boy never grasped.

        1. pgl

          $1 billion a year – now that may seem like a LOT of money if one is the dumbest troll God ever created. Hey Jonny boy – did you fail to read past the headline again? Civilian uses of uranium. Lord – you are DUMB!

        2. pgl

          We know Jonny boy only reads the headlines of his own links which is why he missed this:

          Russia has been exporting cheap enriched uranium to the US since the Cold War. That’s in part because of Russia’s dominance in the global market. The country supplies about 43% of the world with enriched uranium. The US, meanwhile, has virtually stopped enriching its uranium, per The Times.

          It is true that the US is not producing uranium any more. Russia on the other hand is exporting uranium for CIVILIAN uses. Does this sound like two nations renewing the Cold War? Of course not unless one is the dumbest troll God ever created.

        3. pgl

          Hey Jonny boy – if you think $1 billion is a massive contribution to Rosatom, maybe you should ask you preK teacher how to add 2 plus 2:


          Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear corporation, expects to double its annual revenue from foreign projects to some $15 billion by 2024, Alexei Likhachev, the company’s director general said last week – up from $6.6 billion from overseas projects last year. Speaking in a meeting with Dmitry Medvedev, the prime minister, Likhachev said overseas projects were a “key theme” of the nuclear monopoly’s future development and would play a crucial role in weaning the corporation off the state funding it currently receives.

          Yes – little Jonny boy never learned to do basic research.

  2. ltr


    June 15, 2023

    Work starts on world’s largest PV base in Shaanxi, step toward national energy goals

    Construction of a photovoltaic (PV) facility that will make monocrystalline silicon wafers with annual output of 100 gigawatts (GW) and monocrystalline cells with annual output of 50 GW started on Thursday in Northwest China’s Shaanxi Province, a further step to achieve the national double carbon goals and pursue green development.

    Total investment is projected at about 45.2 billion yuan ($6.32 billion), and the facility will cover 205.4 hectares. It will be the world’s largest PV manufacturing base with the highest production capacity and most advanced technology.

    The annual production capacity of 50GW can realize annual power generation of about 133 billion kilowatt hours, which can eliminate the use of 48 million tons of standard coal and 103 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions, equivalent to an increase of 281,333 hectares of afforestation.

    The facility will employ 15,000 people.

    The base will contribute to the accelerated achievement of China’s double carbon goals, experts said.

    China has been ramping up work on renewable energy this year. The Global Times learned from the project’s co-developer PowerChina’s Chengdu Engineering Co in May that Southwest China’s Xizang Autonomous Region started the construction of a PV power station with a designed capacity of about 1,800 megawatts….

  3. ltr


    June 14, 2023

    Green power corridor under construction to tap renewable energy resources in desert

    YINCHUAN — Construction of an ultra-high voltage power transmission line to send electricity generated from wind and photovoltaic power stations in China’s fourth largest desert, the Tengger Desert, to central China’s Hunan Province, has started.

    The State Grid Corporation of China said the line, stretching over 1,600 km from northwest China’s Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region to central China’s Hunan Province, is part of a national plan to develop clean energy resources in China’s deserts and arid lands.

    “By 2025, when the project is completed, it will boast an output of about 20 billion kWh of clean electricity a year,” said Xiang Li, with the State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Co., Ltd.

    Passing through six provincial-level regions, the project is the country’s first ultra-high voltage direct current power transmission line linking major clean energy bases in deserts….

  4. pgl

    ‘Beautiful mind paper boxes’: Trump aides reportedly mocked his attachment to classified records


    Donald Trump’s employees frequently referred to his boxes of documents as his “Beautiful Mind” material because of the former president’s attachments to documents that boosted his own sense of security, according to the New York Times. Those close to Trump referenced “The Beautiful Mind,” a movie that features a schizophrenic character who plasters newspaper clippings to the wall, because of Trump’s known attachment to carrying the keepsakes wherever he went, according to reporters Maggie Haberman, Alan Feuer and Michael S. Schmidt.

      1. pgl

        Oh little Jonny boy thinks he is the funny one. Pray tell what does nuclear power have to do with term spreads. Oh wait – I know. Another economic issue that little Jonny boy knows nothing about!

  5. pgl

    Shares of gross domestic product: Gross private domestic investment: Fixed investment: Residential

    Over the 60 year period from 1947 to 2006, the US spent 4.9% of its GDP on residential investment.
    From 2007 to 2022, the US has spent a mere 3.6% of its GDP on residential investment.

    Could this be why housing prices remain so high?

    1. Macroduck


      Some of the cyclical pattern to residential investment which may reflect “scarring”. Lost specialty workers. Lost access to finance. Smaller, less well capitalized firms exiting during downturns and struggling to return. Those effects were all magnified in the housing collapse.

      Your link shows residential investment’s share returned to something like normal from mid-2020 to mid-2022. Doesn’t seem enough to bring the housing stock to “normal”, but shows that the country can still crank out houses.

      This cobbled-together series isn’t long to tell us much, but something like a ratio of households to housing units would be useful:


  6. pgl

    Putin has gone insane in his attempts to suggest his invasion of Ukraine was to put down Nazism:


    Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday said Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, who is Jewish, was a “disgrace” to people of his faith. “I have a lot of Jewish friends,” Putin told an annual economic f orum in Saint Petersburg. “They say that Zelensky is not Jewish, that he is a disgrace to the Jewish people.””I’m not joking,” he added. AFP and representatives of other countries the Kremlin deems “unfriendly” were not accredited to cover the forum.

    Moscow claims Ukraine’s treatment of Russian speakers in the Western-backed country is comparable to the actions of Nazi Germany. These allegations have been contested by the Ukrainian government and the country’s Jewish community, as well as numerous historians. Putin said Moscow “must fight” neo-Nazism, adding that Russia had suffered enormous losses during the country’s fight against Nazi Germany in World War II. “We will never forget it,” he said. “Why is no one listening to us?”

    No one is listening to you because you are a disgusting liar and a war criminal.

      1. pgl

        HAHAHA – have you figured out yet how high uranium prices discouraged that development of thorium?

        Yea – all economic topics seem related when one understands none of them.

    1. Ivan

      How could they laugh at him when his sources all dissolve as soon as they are asked to repeat their drunken bar bluster in congress and under oath. These are serious allegations from GOP trusted sources, so how could you expect serious evidence in support of them.

  7. Macroduck

    Speaking of China…

    Once upon a time, Josef Stalin probably did not say:

    “The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic.”

    Well, China has apparently decided that large numbers of deaths is not even of statistical interest:


    Only release the news that suits you, I guess.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Not to be too much self-navel-gazing here. But after 7 years in China, the most difficult thing is, How much “you” love the Chinese people, and hate the Chinese government. TRUE dichotomy . It’s really difficult on a personal level,

      Trust me, it’s very hard to separate. OR feel empathy to one, and hate the other, in thoughts very close to each other

    1. Ivan

      The important thing is to dupe the dupes with claims of evidence. The story that such evidence doesn’t exist will never be allowed on right wing networks so it doesn’t exist in the right wing fake reality.

  8. pgl

    TRAVIS D’ARNAUD the Braves catcher had a big night hitting two home runs with one traveling 474 feet. Massive – right? But during the interview after the game some woman reporter said Travis hit a 474 yard home run. I wonder if this reporter even has a clue.

  9. pgl

    Since ltr and JohnH have high jacked this blog post to press the myth that the US and Russia have entered a new Cold War producing massive amounts of uranium (but wait – not bombs) and only China produces thorium, maybe we should look at who is producing uranium for CIVILIAN purposes:


    The following countries are the top producers of uranium, based on 2021 figures:

    Kazakhstan: 21,819 tonnes U
    Namibia: 5,753 tonnes U
    Canada: 4,693 tonnes U
    Australia: 4,192 tonnes U
    Uzbekistan: 3,500 tonnes U
    Russia: 2,635 tonnes U
    Niger: 2,248 tonnes U
    China: 1,885 tonnes U
    India: 615 tonnes U
    Ukraine: 455 tonnes U

    Really? China produces Uranium but not the US? Russia is up there but Kazakhstan leads the list followed by Namibia, Canada, Australia, Uzbekistan.

    Oh well – ltr is not paid to tell us the truth and Jonny boy is too stupid to know what the real world looks like.

  10. pgl

    ‘Where did he go to law school?’ Lindsey Graham’s Trump stolen docs defense dismantled by prosecutor


    “It’s crazy to see, Dave, that Republicans are running to Trump’s defense and making all kinds of excuses,” the MSNBC host prompted. “They are saying that, although he is charged with the Espionage Act, he is not actually accused of spying or hurting the United States. That’s how low the bar has become for Republicans.” “Amen,” attorney Aronberg laughed. “It’s also important to know that Donald Trump is not being charged with the documents that he kept that he gave back. So, the charges are all of the stuff that he refused to give back. So, that’s why they didn’t charge Mike Pence.” “In the indictment, they let him [Trump] go, they let him slide on all of the documents he eventually gave back at their request,” he continued. “And for those people like Lindsey Graham who said the Espionage Act is for spies: where did you go to law school? Because he obviously did not read the statute.” “The statute is much broader than spying,” he elaborated. “It is the willful retention of documents and it’s also the dissemination of the information, which hasn’t been charged yet. But that’s what Jack Smith could eventually charge in New Jersey because that’s where the dissemination allegedly occurred at Bedminster.”

    My understanding is that little Lindsey got a JD in law from the University of South Carolina. If your kid wants to study law do not send him there.

  11. Macroduck

    “Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Saturday there appeared to be “no chance” of extending the deal permitting Ukraine to export grain safely across the Black Sea through Russian-controlled waters.”


    Assuming this is an appropriate contract for Black Sea shipments, wheat prices are at last back to something like normal, despite a jump on Friday. The Kremlin spokesman was probably not the first to suggest shutting down Blqck Sea shipments.

      1. pgl

        AHHH – little Jonny boy has not been fed his dog food by his Kremlin masters. Poor little Jonny boy.

      2. Macroduck

        Johnny, which financial firm do I work for?

        You claimed to know that I’m affiliated with a financial firm. So come on, tell us what you claim to know.

        You also claimed to know that there is no official real median income statistic for the U.S.

        You claim to know so many things, Johnny. Can you not figure out what supply constrains have to do with term spreads? I can explain it to you, as I have had to do with so many things, but this is an easy one. You should really be able to look this up yourself.

    1. pgl

      Maybe Putin needs the grain to feed his starving soldiers. We do see his pet poodle JohnH is acting all upset since Putin cut off Jonny boy’s dog food. But of course that has little to do with term spreads I guess.

  12. pgl

    I get this is from December 2004 but this paper on the uranium market by Thomas Neff is perhaps the best discussion of the uranium market I have ever read:


    Now I get JohnH will bloviate his usual BS about the market for uranium as he knows nothing about either its history, its pricing, or its economics.

    BTW the inflation adjusted price in 2023$ that we saw back before the Three Mile Island disaster was over $170 a pound. Now one would think this could have been a motivation to develop thorium production back then had the price of uranium not collapsed over the next 20 years.

    1. Ulenspiegel

      But let’s be fair, fuel prices are not the issue why nuclear power is struggling, the reactors are too expensive in comparison to alternatives.
      Nuclear power is losing market shares at high rate and there is no chance that this will be reversed withing the next ten years.

      1. baffling

        you are correct. it is not raw fuel cost that is the problem with nuclear. it is prohibitively expensive to build and operate. extremely long time lags to build, for many reasons. and while some will argue it is a clean source of energy, I would disagree. once you consider the potential for meltdowns, it is an extremely dirty form of energy production. three major accidents, with two significant discharges of nuclear material. and many near misses. and we have not even gotten into the cost of transportation and storage of used nuclear waste. nuclear power demonstrated that we need not rely on fossil fuels for energy. however, it is not a long term solution to our energy needs. we have better sources of energy, much cleaner and safer.

    2. JohnH

      It may be an interesting article…but pgl can’t even manage to share a few important points that are not found in the Wikipedia piece.

      But he still pats himself on the back for his major revelations!

      And pgl, the avid supporter of sanctions, can’t fathom why it’s ironic for the US to be buying enriched Russian uranium for its power plants! But then again, he couldn’t understand why it was problematic for Ukraine to be buying diesel from Russian or for Zelensky and Assoc. to be skimming from the US funds used to buy it! What a rube!

      1. pgl

        Gee Jonny boy – why the emotional rants. Oh wait – I gave you a lot of informative discussions. None of which you hae bothered to read. Poor little Jonny boy – he does not like doing homework.

      2. pgl

        Hey Jonny boy – ever heard of the Megatons to Megawatts Program? Look it up troll. Brain child of Thomas L. Neff. But you can’t read what he wrote in 2004 even if he brilliantly predicted what would happen to uranium prices over the next generation.

        Come on Jonny boy – just admit it. You are the dumbest troll God ever created as you are too lazy to do any real research and too stupid to do any real thinking.

        So do what you do best – lie, insult, and whine “mommy these people as so mean to me”.

    3. JohnH

      pgl: seriously…a twenty year old article on uranium? As if nothing had changed since then!!! LOL!!! pgl is so desperate to prove his genius that he’ll plomb the depths of history to find anything marginally tangential!!!

      Twenty years ago, the US was sitting in the catbird’s seat, the uncontested hegemon. and Russia’s economy was considered just a gas station masquerading as a country.

      Now Russia has grown so much in geopolitical significance that the US has imposed widespread sanctions on pretty much everything Russian…but still depends on Russia for a quarter of the enriched uranium needed for its power plants! But pgl is too stupid to see the irony in the US sanctimoniously imposing sanctions with one hand and feeding the mortal enemy with the other!

      1. Macroduck

        Johnny is at it again. Johnny has built a truly dishonest claim about Russia’s economy on a shallow rhetorical trick. Notice how Johnny went from Russia’s economy in one paragraph to Russia’s “geopolitical significance” in the next? This is Rush Limbaugh-level stuff, may he rest in flames.

        Here’s a graphic that should help clear up any misunderstanding about Russia’s economic importance:


        And here’s a look at Russia’s GDP per capita ranking:


        Gas station masquerading as a country? Maybe.

        Johnny has actually used one stupid rhetorical trick – switching from economic importance to geopolitical importance – in support of another rhetorical trick. What does Russia’s role in the world have to do with the value of paper on the uranium market? Johnny doesn’t say. Nor does Johnny demonstrate any actual problem with the paper. He just makes a cockamamie argument about Russia while pretending to make an argument about a uranium article.

        Sad little Johnny.

        Compare Johnny’s words piled upon dishonest words with, for instance, Ulenspiegel’s comment: Two sentences.; clear, testable assertion; no tricks. If reactor cost is, in fact, a serious problem, then China’s pursuit of nuclear power may turn out to be another example of large-scale malinvestment. That’s an important economic issue.

        1. Noneconomist

          Former gas station masquerading as a country? Now, who can’t wait to get behind the wheel of a gas saving economy model made IN Russia? I’m looking at that snappy Skoda Rapid Ii that bears definite resemblance to a 1992 Toyota Corolla.
          Build it, and they will buy one! You betcha! (Touch screen and Red Tooth cost extra)
          The Russian economy: ahead of Chile and Panama and gaining on Croatia. Here they come!

        2. pgl

          “He just makes a cockamamie argument about Russia while pretending to make an argument about a uranium article.”

          Jonny boy knows nothing about the uranium sector. But remember this all started with Jonny trying to claim China leads the world in thorium production (which is absurd) and that the US wanted us to produce more uranium for bombs. But now Jonny boy realizes the US does not produce uranium either for military or civilian purposes so Jonny boy has shifted his tune entirely mocking the US for not being the uranium super power off all time. Talk about “moving the goal posts”.

      2. pgl

        I guess you decided not to read it because it was way over your little pea brain. Typical.

      3. baffling

        “Now Russia has grown so much in geopolitical significance that the US has imposed widespread sanctions on pretty much everything Russian”
        actually, we imposed sanctions because Russia invaded a peaceful neighboring country. they have murdered thousands of innocent civilians and displaced millions of others from their homes. unprovoked aggression is why we imposed sanctions, not geopolitical significance. sanctions would not have been imposed if Russia had not illegally invaded Ukraine. John, your dishonesty is nearly overwhelming. putin apologist, political hack.

  13. pgl

    Help me understand WTF the former wrestling coach who was OK raping his student athletes (Jim Jordan) is saying here. When right wingers choose to lie to us, those who decide to tell us the truth are suppressing the speech of right wingers so much that the government should abuse government power to shut down the truth tellers? Excuse me but I do not think this is what the First Amendment is about:

    G.O.P. Targets Researchers Who Study Disinformation Ahead of 2024 Election

    A legal campaign against universities and think tanks seeks to undermine the fight against false claims about elections, vaccines and other hot political topics.

    Representative Jim Jordan, wearing a blue button-down shirt, in a courtroom. He is resting his chin in his hand while leaning on a table with his name plate. The House Judiciary Committee chairman, Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio, has accused organizations that research disinformation of censoring conservative speech online.

    On Capitol Hill and in the courts, Republican lawmakers and activists are mounting a sweeping legal campaign against universities, think tanks and private companies that study the spread of disinformation, accusing them of colluding with the government to suppress conservative speech online. The effort has encumbered its targets with expansive requests for information and, in some cases, subpoenas — demanding notes, emails and other information related to social media companies and the government dating back to 2015. Complying has consumed time and resources and already affected the groups’ ability to do research and raise money, according to several people involved.

  14. Macroduck

    Off topic, just to annoy Johnny-

    House Republicans are at odds over whether a promise made should mean a promise kept. The bill raising the debt ceiling set spending caps for discretionary spending categories. Freedom (sic) Caucus members want to pass spending bills which further reduce non-military discretionary spending levels beginning in October of this year.

    Here’s a reminder of fiscal policy implications for GDP from The Hutchinson Center from just prior to the debt ceiling bill:


    Knock out another 1% to 2% for the full year vs Hutchinson estimates to account for the debt ceiling bill.

    Over a slightly longer forecast horizon, there is a much larger fiscal change to think about; Trump-era tax cuts expire in 2025.

    Here’s a sketch of the budgetary effects of Trump-era fiscal policy:


    Trump’s tax cuts amounted to a massive wealth transfer from the government sector (or future generations of tax payers and borrowers, if you prefer) to wealthy individuals.

    The CBO shows revenue at around 9.7% of GDP after those tax cuts expire, from around 10.6% last year, a projected 9.6% this year and a 50-year average of 8.0%.


    The 2024 election will decide who gets to deal with the expiration of Trump-era tax cuts. When Shrub-era tax cuts expired, Obama worked successfully to extend tax cuts below a certain income, while allowing tax cuts for high earners to expire. Could be a model for the 2025 round, depending on who’s in charge and how the public feels about the deficit.

    The $10,000 cap on the state-and-local tax deduction expires in 2025. With mortgage rates higher now, that’s probably important for the housing market.

  15. JohnH

    Ducky’s persistence in going off topic without being called out is an inspiration to all of us !

      1. pgl

        Did you see Trump’s interview on Faux News last night? Trump was beyond incoherent but not as incoherent as Jonny boy’s rants over nuclear power.

    1. pgl

      JohnH’s persistence? Spewing stupid trash as little Jonny cannot be bothered to read actual economics.

    2. baffling

      if you go off topic, but provide value then the comment is tolerated. if you simply post propaganda, as is typically the case with John, ltr and covid, then it will probably be pointed out. welcome to the real world, jack.

      1. pgl

        JohnH is particularly bad as this troll often reads a headline and provides the link before reading the entire discussion which often contradicts the stupid spin Jonny attributes to the link,

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