Growth Nowcasts for Q4

Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, and St. Louis Fed are for 2.1%, 2.51%, and 1.9%, SAAR respectively.

Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), GDPNow of 11/8 (blue square), NY Fed nowcast as of 11/10 (green inverted triangle), St. Louis Fed news nowcast (brown triangle), WSJ survey mean (bold dark red), 20% trimmed low of WSJ survey fm Jonathan Holt/ScotiaBank (light red), all in billions Ch.2017$, SAAR. Levels calculated on basis on advance GDP release figure. Note on log scale. Source: BEA 2023Q3 advance, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, St.Louis Fed via FRED, WSJ, and author’s calculations. 

The latest weekly reading (for y/y growth) as of data from 11/4 are 2.07% (from the Lewis-Mertens Stock NY Fed Weekly Economic Index), and -0.02% below trend from the Baumeister-Leiva Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Indicators. That means we’re essentially at trend growth according to the BLLS indicator.

These figures are interesting placed in the context of term spread recession probabilities exceeding 50% around December of this year, and term spread augmented (FCI, debt-service ratio) probabilities breaking that threshold in April 2024. So just because we haven’t seen sharp growth declines yet doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods yet.





10 thoughts on “Growth Nowcasts for Q4

  1. ltr

    From the same threatening, terrorizing person who routinely calls me a dog (worse than a dog) and scum… I have of course never ever addressed this person:

    November 10, 2022

    How dare you, a shill for one of the most repressive regimes in the world, take this tone? Your pretense of high-mindedness is made comical by your refusal to acknowledge China’s enslavement of Uyghurs, China’s land-grab in the South China Sea, China’s oppression of Tibet and Hong Kong.

    You are shocked by the words printed in the NYT, but not the deeds of Xi’s regime? Hypocrite.

  2. ltr

    “China’s oppression of Tibet…”

    This is of course calumny.

    We can however easily gain a proper sense of what Xizang (Tibet) is like:

    November 10, 2023

    Xizang’s social democracy is a material reality in constant motion
    By Keith Lamb

    With the release of the white paper * entitled “CPC Policies on the Governance of Xizang in the New Era: Approach and Achievements” on November 10, the spotlight in the Chinese media is on the Xizang Autonomous Region.

    Western corporate media typically depict Xizang as a region devoid of democracy and human rights. In terms of human rights, boarding schools that solve the problem of schooling for dispersed communities become forced assimilation, and job training in aid of poverty alleviation becomes forced labor. Basic tools, essential for democracy, like education and income are twisted into a horror story.

    Democracy is not an abstraction randomly defined by a singular process such as a national election for a candidate preselected by narrow class interests. It is a material reality, where benefits can be seen and felt by everyone because policies reflect the greater social good. China’s fast development and poverty alleviation represent the biggest real success of democracy the world has ever seen.

    This expression is also felt in Xizang which, having discarded its feudal past in 1959 to start on its democratic journey, declared victory over poverty in 2019 after lifting all 628,000 registered impoverished people and 74 designated poor counties out of poverty. Xizang has arisen out of grinding poverty which is reflected in an average life expectancy of 35.5 years in 1959 compared to 72.19 years today.

    Democracy improves people’s lives; it doesn’t impoverish them. Xizang’s GDP per capita dwarfs all states that border it and the gap is increasing. Already, for the first nine months of 2023, Xizang’s GDP is up 9.8 percent and this is reflected in the per capita disposable incomes of urban and rural residents in Xizang which have increased by 5.8 percent and 8.7 percent, respectively. Matching this democratic process for families and individual consumers is also the linking up of Xizang with a high-speed speed rail that runs at over 5,100 meters above sea level and the doubling of road length from 2012-2020.

    For China and its Xizang Autonomous Region, democracy is not a switch to be turned on and off but a process to be improved on. China, conscious of this, is constantly seeking to improve its consultative form of democracy known as “whole-process people’s democracy,” which enacts the will of the people, not through four-year election cycles but by measuring opinions and taking suggestions daily, through its various governing bodies which is then reformulated into policy….


    1. Macroduck

      Once a lying cur, always a lying cur. “Calumny” is, of course, just another lie. Here’s just a taste of the truth regarding China’s treatment of Tibet:

      “Emerging with control over most of mainland China after the Chinese Civil War, the People’s Republic of China annexed Tibet in 1950…”

      “During the Great Leap Forward, between 200,000 and 1,000,000 Tibetans may have died and approximately 6,000 monasteries were destroyed during the Cultural Revolution—destroying the vast majority of historic Tibetan architecture.”

      “Human rights organisations have been critical of the Beijing and (China-backed) Lhasa governments’ approach to human rights in the region when cracking down on separatist convulsions that have occurred around monasteries and cities, most recently in the 2008 Tibetan unrest.”

      “The Tibet Autonomous Region is a province-level entity of the People’s Republic of China. It is governed by a People’s Government, led by a chairman. In practice, however, the chairman is subordinate to the branch secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).”

    2. Macroduck

      Oh,and by the way, even the use of “Xizang” rather than “Tibet” is part of China’s continued effort to erase Tibet’s identify. You don’t have to believe me. Even the Beijing Times says so, though in the typical, patronizing language of Chinese hegemonists:

      Tibet’s “geopolitical identity” is to be erased, replaced by “just another Chinese satellite”. To pretend otherwise is calumny.

  3. ltr

    This is a proper sense of Xizang:–1oBZHoQkpA4/index.html

    November 10, 2023

    How is education for children on Qinghai-Xizang Plateau improving?
    By Zhong Xia

    One year ago, Phurbu Drolma received heartening news from her nephew, Tenzin. He had been accepted into a prestigious senior high school after completing three junior years at Lhasa Jiangsu Experimental High School in Lhasa, the capital of China’s Xizang Autonomous Region.

    “In 2019, following his elementary school graduation, Tenzin decided to continue his education by enrolling at Lhasa Jiangsu Experimental High School, known for its strong teaching staff,” said Drolma, who lives in Lhasa’s Chengguan District.

    Lhasa Jiangsu Experimental High School offers boarding facilities for both junior and senior high school students. Tenzin spent three years there, an experience that helped develop his independence.

    Attending boarding school is often a convenient option for both students and parents in Xizang. Drolma, who mentioned Nagqu, one of the most remote and inhospitable areas in Xizang with an average altitude exceeding 4,500 meters, explained that in such a vast and sparsely populated region, it can be challenging for children to commute daily.

    “Many parents are engaged in farming and find it inconvenient to pick up their children from school. So schools that offer accommodation services are much more convenient for students who live far from the school,” she said.

    Even though it’s still a few years away, Phurbu Drolma and her husband sometimes discuss their four-year-old child’s future education. They have heard that some prestigious middle schools from Beijing are planning to open branches in Xizang.

    “Education options may improve in the future. When we were in school, there were no such schools as Lhasa Jiangsu Experimental Middle School,” she told CGTN.

    Better access to high-quality education …

    1. Macroduck

      Funny how ltr whines about the centuries-long Chinese culture, then pretends that China is wonderful, wonderful, wonderful whole attempting to erase Tibetan culture.

      Read the Beijing Times link – Tibet is to be subsumed, disappeared. It shows the official view, that Tibet will bw better off when Tibet doesn’t exist. That’ the truth about China’s treatment of Tibet. Want more? The 14th Dalai Lama is old, and assumed to be near death, at which point the 15th Lama will be encarnated. China, having chased the 14th into exile, intends to name the 15th:

      In China’s view, Tibet has no say over Tibetan culture. That’s why ltr went propaganda-nuts when I mentioned Tibet. China tried to destroy Tibets religion during the Cultural Revolution, what with the 6,000 temples destroyed and monks put into re-education camps. Now, China will have another crack at it.

    2. Ithaqua0

      “Proper” as in “following the Party line”, not “proper” as in “true.” And it’s “Tibet”, not “Xizang.”

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