Today, the Confidence Board’s consumer confidence index clocked in at 110.7, vs. Bloomberg consensus of 103.8. The Michigan survey of consumer sentiment and to a lesser extent the Conference Board survey of confidence have diverged from their historical correlation with inflation and unemployment. Interestingly, while the Michigan measure in particular has deviated from the text based measure, they have both now started reverting toward the text based measure.
Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (tan), and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) Daily News Sentiment Index (green), all demeaned and normalized by standard deviation (for the displayed sample period). Michigan December observation is preliminary. The News Index observation for December is through 12/10. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: U.Mich via FRED, Conference Board via Investing.com, SF Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.
To the extent that the survey based and news text based series diverge, this gives some support to the Vibes view of the dour mood of the public (subject to the condition that the Daily News Index accurately summarizes the news).
The jump in the Confidence Board measure was due to increases in both the present situation and expectations components.
Source: Confidence Board, accessed 12/20/2023.
On the trend divergence between (inverted) misery index and sentiment and confidence indices, see Figure 2 below.
Figure 2: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue, left scale), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (tan, left scale), both demeaned and normalized by standard deviation (for the displayed sample period).and inverted Misery Index (green, right scale). Michigan December observation is preliminary. The News Index observation for December is through 12/10. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: U.Mich via FRED, Conference Board via Investing.com, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Why does johhny continue to refuse to condemn the immoral and unethical war russia is waging in ukraine? Why does he continue to give putin a free ride for the murder and genocide being perpetrated by the russians against the Ukrainians? Why does johnny continue to support the unprovoked war and violence?
I also find it telling that he continues to describe the Korean War as a U.S. proxy war and a failure, as though having South Korea be like North Korea instead of the way it is today would somehow be an improvement, or at least not a worsening, of their lives. This has been pointed out to him by Menzie, myself, and others, but he forges on, boldly going where no intelligent man has gone before…
Critics to right of him,
Critics to left of him,
Critics in front of him
Volley’d and thunder’d;
Storm’d at with fact and logic,
Boldly he typed and quick,
Into the jaws of failure,
Into the mouth of stupidity
Typed the John H.
Eisenhower was wise to accept an armistice in Korea,,,the only President in the last 75 years to recognize the futility of a land war in Asia.
Eisenhower did not let North Korea run over South Korea. You would have.
The why of JohnH? Other being a obvious liar, he’s a great pretender. He pretends to have strict moral and ethical codes while clearly having neither. As such, he’s rootless and unanchored. Anti war in one sentence. Pro war in the next.
He’s not a fool, just a recurring anal pain who knows —from the comments he receives here—that he’s not smart enough to fool anybody.
And, of course, he doesn’t care. Without a moral or ethical compass to guide him, he lies.It’s what he has to do to survive.
Jonny boy also thinks he knows economics. Of course we all know he knows nothing.
What I condemn is the US’ engaging in pointless and futile quagmires…Ukraine being the latest. They cause an immense amount of destruction and kill and destroy an enormous number of lives and end up accomplishing nothing. What were the points of the wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan? What were the results? Does anyone seriously think that Ukraine will end any differently?
Why has baffling refused to condemn the immoral and unethical wars that the US has waged over the last 75 years? And why does he refuse to condemn the US for the well documented sabotage of peace treaties for Ukraine in early 2022?
The point of Ukraine defending itself is to keep Russia from taking over. Guess you missed that.
Johnny has dragged out another weasel word – “engaging”. Johnny has tried over and over to claim that this is a U.S. war. It just isn’t. Russia invades Ukraine -twice – and Ukraine is defending itself. Johnny is arguing against countries defending themselves, at least when Russia is the aggressor.
So, not pointless. Not a war the U.S. is fighting. Not a proxy war unless you stretch the meaning of “proxy” to suit some political narrative (which is what Johnny’s masters demand of him). The U.S. is “engaging” in supporting the victim of Russian aggression- a truth Johnny has never admitted to.
Johnny is simply repeating Russian propaganda, hoping that the U.S. will abandon Ukraine and reward Putin for his aggression.
I recently watched an interview with Sean Penn. You may recall he was a very prominent opponent of the 2003 invasion of Iraq – something Jonny boy yaps about but this gutless weasel never took the time to protest against that war.
The main thrust of the recent interview was how important it is to support Ukraine against Putin’s war crimes. Now may little Jonny boy may decide he wants to call Sean Penn a war monger but that would be as laughable as all the other dishonest rants from Putin’s pet poodle.
Dude – they are speaking for all of us. You are a clown and everyone knows it. Maybe you should find some other place to spread your poison.
Q: Did JohnH condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
A: No.
Q: But he says he’s against futile, pointless, wars. How can he support the devastation caused by the invading Russian forces and be anti war?
A: He lies.
Q: He says Russia wants a fairly negotiated settlement and will never again seek more territorial gains and…
A: He lies
Q: But he says he…
A: He lies.
“Why has baffling refused to condemn the immoral and unethical wars that the US has waged over the last 75 years? ”
THAT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE ILLEGAL WAR WAGED BY RUSSIA IN UKRAINE TODAY! Johnny, you are using whataboutism to deflect your immorality.
I cannot change Korea or Vietnam. but Ukraine is happening actively today. I took a stand again the murder and rape perpetrated by Russia against the Ukrainians TODAY. JOHNNY HAS NOT SAID ONE SINGLE CONDEMNATION OF THE MURDERS AND RAPES PERPETRATED BY PUTIN AGAINST THE UKRAINIANS. IN FACT, HE FEELS THEY WAR IN UKRAINE IS JUSTIFIED. Johnny simply distracts from TODAY and whines about YESTERDAY. why? because it is very apparent Johnny does not care about pointless and futile quagmires-which is what Russia is engaged in. Johnny you are an embarrassing loser. and the fact that econned, rick striker, bruce and covid remain silent on this issue is quite telling as well. all of you are cowards who had a chance to stand up against evil, and you failed the test miserably. Johnny, you are just as bad as ltr.
“I cannot change Korea or Vietnam”
I cannot either. Korea was before I was born but I did protest against the Vietnam War. JohnH did not. I also protested against the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Jonny boy? He took his wife to dinner. Jonny boy is a gutless little coward.
Johnny, true or false. if Russia stops waging war and withdraws from Ukraine. the war is over. peace returns. putin can end this murderous escapade if he wants to. he has chosen to continue to wage aggression. and you support him.
Because Putin’s pet poodle (Jonny boy) wants his doggie food each day.
I think this Vibes thing is hitting on something even outside the realm of Economics that more and more young people are talking about recently, or finally realizing recently~~social media, FAKE smiles on Instagram, isn’t going to bring true happiness into their lives.
More trouble for realtors:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/realtors-face-billions-in-damages-for-overcharging-home-buyers-and-sellers/ar-AA1lMCqX
Realtors engage in directly unproductive profit-seeking (DUP), which is to say, making a profit on something other than one’s economic contribution. Realtors stand in the way of transaction as well as facilitating transactions. The standing-in-the-way part allows higher fees than the facilitation part is actually worth.
DUP isn’t always illegal, but it’s always a drag on the economy. What I’m not clear on is whether realtor behavior amounts to the DUP subset known as rent-seeking. Anyone with actual knowledge (so not Johnny) able to clear this up?
I don’t have the answer, but you proffered a damned intelligent and interesting question.
An old paper, but still looks interesting:
https://gceps.princeton.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/78hsieh.pdf
Merci.
So, the paper argues that real estate agents are (were) no better off in Boston than In Minneapolis, because competition for rents drives the income of Boston real estate agents down to the level of real estate agents in Minneapolis. I think that leaves out a key fact; the cost of living in higher in Boston than in Minneapolis. Housing costs are (were) twce as high in Boston as in Minneapolis – the starting point of the analysis – and taxes are higher, too.
So, unless I’ve missed something (quality of life?), competition for large broker fees in Boston means real estate brokers are worse off in Boston. Odd outcome.