Houthi attacks on shipping spur rise in oil prices. Here’s a graph to put things in perspective, for the world price, and the price Russia is getting for its oil.
Source: TradingEconomics.com, accessed 12/19/2023.
The Brent-Urals gap is $19 per barrel.
Pass through from oil into gasoline is about 37% after about 3 months, according to Hakan Yilmazkuday.
Kopits September 11
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/09/kopitsian-and-other-recession-indicators#comment-304480
Glad someone is covering Stevie’s horrific forecast record as we know he refuses to do so.
The Ukraine proxy war supporters here are desperately searching the horizon for signs that something…anything will hurt and derail Russia. No doubt, Russia has been hurt. But will it matter?
Daily Beast: “Ukraine Is on the Cusp of Losing This War: ‘We’re Screwed’” Problem is, the world’s most expensive military has no Plan B. (Maybe Petraeus will pull a copy of his famous Iraq surge out of his back pocket?) https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-is-on-the-cusp-of-losing-this-war-were-screwed
Gideon Rachman: “Ukraine and its backers need a credible path to victory…Ukraine goes into the new year short of ammunition, money and diplomatic support. Underlying these critical shortages, there is another important deficiency. The country and its western backers no longer have a convincing theory of victory. Unless they can come up with one, western support for Ukraine will continue to waver. The current situation is a stark contrast to the optimism at the beginning of this year. ”
https://archive.is/UVMOU#selection-2267.0-2271.89
NY Times: “Soldiers and marines who have taken part in the river crossings described the offensive as brutalizing and futile, as waves of Ukrainian troops have been struck down on the river banks or in the water, even before they reach the other side. Conditions are so difficult, a half-dozen men involved in the fighting said in interviews, that in most places, there is nowhere to dig in.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/16/world/europe/ukraine-kherson-river-russia.html
The clearest sign that the situation is dire for Ukraine is the fact that the media dared to publish these negative pieces at all. When that happened in past pointless and futile quagmires, it signaled a lost cause. I guess the next step will be for the neocons and their fellow travelers here to label these prominent media outlets as Putin’s puppets. (It’s what Joe McCarthy would have done.)
Of course, most of this death and destruction could have been avoided, if the US had not sabotaged peace agreements early in the conflict.
JohnH: Isn’t this the same argument that folks in Poland could’ve said to the Germans (and the Russians) in 1939? If we surrender, then no more people will die. Does that seem like a credible argument?
If Jonny boy lived in the 1930’s he would have been Hitler’s number one fanboy.
So you’re proposing the alternative–fighting to the last Ukranian? From what I read, it’s fast approaching that point. Having largely depleted the population of fit, fighting age males, Ukraine is sending women to the front line and proposing legislation to conscript and send more. With prospects for a Ukrainian victory becoming increasing doubtful, what’s the point? https://news.yahoo.com/many-women-serve-armed-forces-085000700.html
And to think that this could have been avoided if the US had not sabotaged peace agreements in early 2022: “How The Chance Was Lost For A Peace Settlement Of The Ukraine War”. https://michael-von-der-schulenburg.com/how-the-chance-was-lost-for-a-peace-settlement-of-the-ukraine-war/
“So you’re proposing the alternative–fighting to the last Ukranian? From what I read, it’s fast approaching that point. Having largely depleted the population of fit, fighting age males, Ukraine is sending women to the front line and proposing legislation to conscript and send more. ”
So much BS in a few sentences, realöly impressive. Did you train for that or are you a natural? Honest question.
P.S. Learn history. The loss ratio in the Ukrainian war is almost ONE ORDER OF MAGNITUDE lower than in WW1. You can directly compare population wise France 1914 with Ukraine 2022.
So your solution is to have Ukrainians surrender themselves to the war criminal Putin? Oh wait – you love it when their women get raped, when their children are taken from their parents, and when their entire identity is destroyed by a foreign tyrant. I’m glad that Ukrainians are not the chicken $hits you want them to be.
It is better to die on my feet than continue living on my knees.
“more than 5,000 directly perform combat tasks”
Most modern armies have women serving on the front lines. But little Jonny boy thinks this is wrong? Little Jonny boy is a sexist pig.
No where in what Michael von der Schulenburg wrote here did the oped say Putin would have agreed to give up on his attempts to conquer Ukraine. The oped does note Zelensky had wanted peace but it seems your boy never gave a hint of backing off his war crimes. That’s the point little Jonny boy – your master is a war criminal who started this war and continues it. And you want the war to continue so you can continue to get your daily doggie treats.
Ukrainian proxy war? This war is a war of choice for Russia. So is Russia a proxy for some other entity? Putin, Inc., for instance?
‘Cause only an idiot or a liar could claim that Ukraine chose to fight this war, and choice is a necessary condition for a proxy war. Now take the U.S.S.R’s fiasco in Afghanistan. The Mujahedeen chose to fight that war. The U.S. aided them. The Mujahedeen could reasonably be considered proxies, even though they probably would have fought without U.S. aid. We then walked away, and have paid a terrible price. Once you become an ally, you don’t walk away. That’s what Johnny isurgi gus to do.
Johnny keeps spinning stories about the war in Ukraine which ignore the fact that Russia started the war – twice. He keeps claiming that the U.S. prevented Ukraine from surrendering its territory to Russia, without explaining how that could possibly work. Was the U.S. threat something like “we won’t help you fight to defend your terrtory if you don’t fight to defend your territory”?
Wanna know why Johnny is repeating lies that have been repeatedly debunked? Because aid to Ukraine is up for renewal in Congress now. This is the time that Putin’s pets must show their colors. Putin, Trump, Marjorie Taylor-Green, Matt Gaetz and Johnny, all singing from the same sheet of music.
The next step for the neocons here is reminding this.site’s biggest liar that, indeed, most of the death and destruction could have been avoided if Russia had not invaded Ukraine.
That’s all that needs be said. But, of course, JohnH continues to set fire to his pants daily by completely neglecting reality.
By this time, you would think he would realize the joke is not on him. It is him.
Nobody’s buying his “concerns” about futile , wasteful mainly because, well, he has no concerns. He supported the invasion, lied incessantly about early war events, and has happily continued to repeatedly respout Russian propaganda. He’s a proud, unapologetic Putineer who recently shared his joy over Russian weapons technology.
Much as as he’d love to cloak himself with the flag, he has no real choice but to parade in the tricolors representing, yes, Russia.
Of course, compulsive liars like JohnH know they’re liars. And they don’t care. As the cream of liars, JohnH has definitely risen to the top.
“most of the death and destruction could have been avoided if Russia had not invaded Ukraine”
How exactly does that observation change the situation on the ground? And how does it get NATO out of its predicament?
“NATO IS A MESS AND THE RUSSIANS ARE WINNING–Equipment and Manpower in Desperately Short Supply”
https://weapons.substack.com/p/nato-is-a-mess-and-the-russians-are
Sure, neocons and their fellow travelers can assess blame all they want, but that contributes nothing to ending the death and destruction, which they seem to be supporting by rejecting any path but total defeat of Russia, which is not going to happen anytime soon. Given the US history of pointless and futile quagmires in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, the US would have been wise to recognize the limits to its power and accept a peace agreement in 2022.
Either YOU oppose the invasion or YOU don’t. And obviously YOU don’t.
If you can’t be honest, just STFU and be you. You’ve failed miserably in your attempt at pretending to be anti war. You should be proud of your pro Russian, pro Putin sentiments. You’re obviously not clever enough to effectively hide them.
But YOU being YOU there’s much more faux anti war babbling on the immediate horizon. Maybe you’ll even succeed in fooling somebody foolish enough to believe you.
Again, without the invasion YOU refuse to condemn, no negotiated agreement would be necessary. That observation doesn’t change any situation. It’s simply the truth. And YOU—much as try to manipulate it—can’t handle the truth.
Gee Jonny – did Putin let you watch more film of Russians killing Ukrainian babies? After all – you seem so excited!
johnny, of course most of this death and destruction could have been avoided, had the russians not illegally invaded ukraine and commenced with their morally and ethically reprehensible murder and rape of innocent ukrainians. you are nothing but a political hack johnny.
and shame on fools such as rick stryker, econned, bruce and others who stay silent when antidemocratic folks like johnny get on this site. your true colors emerge as well. your only goal is to denigrate prof chinn. you don’t believe much of what you say here anyways. cowards.
Idiots will selectively quote idiots in the desperate belief that those reading it are idiots who cannot look through such idiocy.
You can quote me on that.
So, baffling, what’s your endgame?
Russia stops the immoral aggression and withdraws from ukrainian territory. Unconditionally. I wont reward them one acre of territory. That is bully and theft behavior. I wont reward putin for the murders and atrocities he has committed against ukraine. And time has arrived for nato to consider Ukraine membership, if that is what is needed to stop putins aggressions.
Unlike you, johnny, i am not willing to give putin a thing as a result of his barbarous actions. He should and will be punished.
Ivan, Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result is a definition of insanity…Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan…and now Ukraine.
And you can quote me on it.
Appeasement enabled hitler. Putin is worse, since he has nukes. Johnny, if you support putin it is no different than hitler and the nazis. There is no difference at this point. They are both murderers.
Can we quote you on the number of American military casualties in Ukraine? We know numbers from Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. So, please fill us in on Ukraine.
(Actually, asking you to condemn the unnecessary slaughter of Ukrainian civilians—and the Russian invasion—over and over again and expecting you to do so is a waste of time. The odor of smoke enveloping your pants always precedes you)
Maybe I would quote you if I needed to talk about fools who cannot see a difference between wars that involve our troops and those that don’t.
Do you even know how effing stupid your comments are? Oh wait – you are a mental retard with an IQ in the single digits. And to repeat the point above – you are this blog’s biggest liar.
Stop asking such stupid questions. Stop telling such utter lies. You are disgusting and really should go away and get professional help.
Moses beat me to it but Urals at $60 with a discount from Brent near $20 sort of shows the sanctions are working. But little Stevie boy will never admit it.
Looks like we have hit the perfect sweet spot. Brent needs to be in the $80-100 to help push the transition towards use of non-hydrocarbon energy. We also need to keep Russian oil prices lower than that to reduce their ability to continue executing aggressive imperialistic policies and wars. A $20 price gap is an impressive accomplishment given that India and China are not at all interested in making sacrifices to contain Russia.
Thank you Joe Biden for being a competent President who can succeed in exceedingly difficult policy goals.
At this point we probably need to reset the goal for Brent to $70-90 (maybe even $ 60-80). The switch to alternatives have been aided by a somewhat unexpected drop in prices to such a degree that they are 80% on new power plants in the US in 2023. Investors have recognized a high risk of stranded assets if they build even the most effective natural gas plants and price it out over the lifetime of the project. That would suggest that even a slightly lower oil price would not reverse the trend away from hydrocarbons. It will also become increasingly more difficult to retain a $20 spread between Brent and Urals, because Russia will become more efficient at getting around sanction and sell their oil on the world market.
Tricky Ducky keeps parroting US propaganda that this is not a proxy war…even though the US stands to gain strategically if Ukraine were to win, and the US could place its arms all along the Russian border. Furthermore, SecDef Austin has said that the goal in Ukraine is to weaken Russia…using US munitions and communications systems along with Ukrainian fighters to accomplish the goal.
With Tricky Ducky’s weird logic, he probably saw no problem with the Soviets’ basing nuclear missiles in Cuba. I mean, don’t nations get to decide for themselves who they become allies with?
As for the neocons and their fellow travelers who claim here that the US is defending human rights in Ukraine, well…that argument went up in smoke with ongoing US support for genocide in Gaza: “The rubble of America’s ‘rules-based order’ in Gaza….Israel’s counteroffensive is pummeling the moral legitimacy of the liberal international order:” https://asiatimes.com/2023/11/the-rubble-of-americas-rules-based-order-in-gaza/
One of Johnny’s favorite tricks is to accuse others of his own sins. He parrots Russian propaganda, so anyone who disagrees with him is a parrot. He lies, so anyone who disagrees with him is lying. He doesn’t understand economics (or history or international relations), so anyone who disagrees with him, including a Nobel Prize winner, doesn’t understand economics (or, ya know…).
Yes, U.S. interests are served by helping Ukraine defend itself. Thank you, Johnny, for admitting that you are working against U.S. interests. Russia’s interests are served by ending the war while Russia still holds Ukrainian territory, so Johnny is arguing for Russia’s interests. Johnnypretends that Ukrainianlives are what he cares about, but if he did, he’d have condemned Russia’s invasion long ago. Q.E.D.
Jonny boy is now saying this is all about the US wanting to invade Russia? Damn – he is stupid. Napolean invaded Russia which was a big mistake. Hitler invaded Russia – how did that turn out? I guess Jonny boy is worse at history than he is at economics.
No – the US has no desire to invade Russia. Jonny boy knows this but Jonny boy has run out of excuses for Putin’s war crimes.
Is it possible to be both anti war and a supporter of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
Of course not.
But JohnH’s severely forked tongue keeps trying. And trying. And trying.
Get ready. We’re about to hear more on this futile war followed by news of exciting new Russian weapons technology that will certainly prolong the war and cause plenty more Ukrainian casualties,
New day. New pair of pants to burn.