From FoxNews. Here’s a picture of indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC over the past year. Note that August numbers are mostly up.
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 3rd release/annual update, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (10/1/2024 release), and author’s calculations.
It’s possible that NBER will backdate the recession to starting in July. So far we have preliminary data for August for consumption, personal income ex-transfers, and industrial production, and don’t have Q3 GDP (although all nowcasts for Q3 indicate growth). Still, NBER peak in July does seem a little unlikely to me.
By the way, Dr. Antoni also declared a recession a little more than two years ago.
I had to look up “empiricist” since Antoni calls himself that every time Faux News invites him on to lie and lie and lie. I never knew empiricist means someone who manipulates empirical data 24/7!
“By the way, Dr. Antoni also declared a recession a little more than two years ago.”
He did. So did Steven Koptis!
Two down quarters in 2021. Typical definition of a recession. I don’t believe I have declared a recession since.
Right now, if we use the same standard, GDP is rising. Hard to make a recession call if 1) unemployment is low, 2) initial unemployment claims are low and not rising particularly; and 3) GDP is growing.
But the economy is resetting. If we were coming off a normal business cycle, this might indeed signal a recession. But the level is still high, and that’s because it was a suppression, not a recession. Antoni seems to be making the same misinterpretation.
Baffs had asked me about using historical comps, and I said that one had to be cautious to compare this cycle with ordinary recessions, because it was a suppression, which has fundamentally different dynamics. Antoni is an example of what I meant.
Hey dumba$$. There were ZERO down quarters in 2021. As far as 2022 – our host has called out your incessant stupidity in a new post.
“But the economy is resetting. If we were coming off a normal business cycle, this might indeed signal a recession.”
My God – this is so stupid it makes your stupid claim that GDP/M2 is mean reverting.
Steven Kopits: See new post addressing your comment.
Hey I survived that clip as it was mercifully brief. Let’s see – a downward revision is equating to the premise that employment itself fell regardless of how large the originally reported increase was large. And the fact that the latest BLS figure had upward revisions? Oh that does not count.
The brazen dishonesty of this clown should be apparent with anyone whose IQ is above the teens. Alas Faux News has lots of viewers with single digit IQs!
Antoni’s lies on the Twitter are so off the wall one might wonder why he is not banned. Oh wait – Elon Musk owns the Twitter and we know where this South African racist lies.
X is getting really bad grades from civilians and from public safety officials over the difficulty of finding useful information about hurricane preparation and recovery efforts.
Twitter was a valued resource for hurricane information in its day. X is so full of misinformation, disinformation, cons, hustles and fraud, that those in need of real information are going elsewhere. They simply can’t afford the time it takes to plow through all of the Musk culture looking for what they need.
Sometimes you wonder what kind of “medicine” Musk is being prescribed by his doctors.
Who you gonna believe, Fox News/Heritage Foundation or your lying eyes?
By the way – does anyone remember when the Wall St Journal, Hoover Inst., Fox News were confused about how seasonal adjustments worked and used that to claim raising the minimum wage in CA would lead to job losses, restaurant closures, extreme price hikes, etc.
Well – it turns out they were wrong – @TBPInvictus brings the facts:
Wages increased by 18% – For 90% of non-managerial workers, wages increased by 18%, representing a meaningful bump for workers who have historically been underpaid despite many being the primary breadwinners in their families.
No job cuts – The wage increase did not lead to job cuts, despite what critics had said would be a doomsday for the industry.
Profit margins were already high – The industry had been benefiting from “monopsonistic (higher than competitive) profit margins” which have “absorbed a substantial share of the cost increase.”
15 cents – The cost of menu options rose by only 3.7%, which is roughly just 15 cents for a typical $4 hamburger.
https://ritholtz.com/2024/10/update-new-ca-qsr-min-wage-study-a-victory-lap/
Now if only the WIGOP would raise the minimum wage here in Wisconsin to attract adult workers for all the taverns – but no – the WIGOP would rather force 14 year olds to serve beer – https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2023/05/01/wisconsin-bill-allows-14-year-olds-to-serve-alcohol-in-restaurants/70170861007/
I would be surprised if Dr. Antoni was ever to say something sensible. Fox news goes out and find “experts” who will say whatever their listeners want to hear. That is their business model and only way to survive. Fox is news, the same way WWF is wrestling. If they seek deep enough in the gutters they will always be able to find someone with some kind of degree who either is stupid enough or willing to prostitute themselves, and say the words that Fox viewers want to hear. I have no idea whether Dr. Antoni is stupid or a prostitute, but he is delivering the message that Fox viewers so desperately want to hear when a democrat is in the white house.
Has anyone had any experience with this index? Fake PhD EJ Antoni is citing this as evidence that the labor market is in horrible shape. Mitchell Barnes, Economist at The Conference Board is not singing this Antoni/Faux News tune. Who to trust?!
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Decreased in September
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/conference-board-employment-trends-index-140000309.html
NEW YORK, Oct. 7, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in September to 108.48, from an upwardly revised 109.54 in August. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months. “The ETI has been on an extended downtrend that mirrored the decline in job vacancies over the past two years, yet the overall employment picture has remained strong through much of that time,” said Mitchell Barnes, Economist at The Conference Board. “And while hiring has slowed in recent months from its former rapid pace, last week’s Employment Report showing outsized gains in September should alleviate some concerns—right at the time the Fed has started its rate-cutting cycle. Despite falling steadily from its peak, the ETI remains around 2018-19 levels.”