From FoxNews. Here’s a picture of indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC over the past year. Note that August numbers are mostly up.
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 3rd release/annual update, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (10/1/2024 release), and author’s calculations.
It’s possible that NBER will backdate the recession to starting in July. So far we have preliminary data for August for consumption, personal income ex-transfers, and industrial production, and don’t have Q3 GDP (although all nowcasts for Q3 indicate growth). Still, NBER peak in July does seem a little unlikely to me.
By the way, Dr. Antoni also declared a recession a little more than two years ago.
I had to look up “empiricist” since Antoni calls himself that every time Faux News invites him on to lie and lie and lie. I never knew empiricist means someone who manipulates empirical data 24/7!
“By the way, Dr. Antoni also declared a recession a little more than two years ago.”
He did. So did Steven Koptis!
Hey I survived that clip as it was mercifully brief. Let’s see – a downward revision is equating to the premise that employment itself fell regardless of how large the originally reported increase was large. And the fact that the latest BLS figure had upward revisions? Oh that does not count.
The brazen dishonesty of this clown should be apparent with anyone whose IQ is above the teens. Alas Faux News has lots of viewers with single digit IQs!