EJ Antoni/Heritage writes:
Another month, another record high for the number of gov’t employees
Well, yes. Of course, population is also at a record high. So too is nominal GDP. What to do…what to do… maybe normalize? Maybe choose a longer sample period?
Figure 1: Government employees, 000’s (blue, left scale), and government employees as a ratio of population (tan, right scale), both s.a. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, NBER.
That being said, I am thankful the EJ Antoni/Heritage has stopped using the CPS measure of government employment (which he did here). An inspection of the CES and CPS counterparts highlights the fact that the CPS measure is unreliable at high frequencies.
Figure 2: Government employees from CES (blue), from CPS (red), both s.a. S NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, NBER.
As a share of total employment:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1C4Ov
Just off a 7-decade low? That couldn’t be right, could it?
Disingenuousness, but your point is well taken. Like Al Franken says “lies and the lyng liars that tell them”
This is also all Governments in the U.S., Federal, State, & Local, and so includes law enforcement, fire fighting (probably Heritage wants to privatize), prisons (also privatize), education (definitely want to privatize), etc. Also, setting up mass deportation and a police state to “eliminate” the “vermin and enemies” of the country will require lots of employees to make arrests, guard prisoners, monitor contracts for detention and logistic services, and conduct deportations, but again, I expect Antoni will want to “contract out” as much as this as possible. Besides the legal 20% profits these firms make net, they make even more money by cheating their employees and defrauding the Government in regard to the services provided. Fines & penalties if caught are just “costs of doing business,” what Heritage regards as repression of the rights of their corporate masters.
Also, since Antoni’s is implicitly suggesting that it is the number of Federal Government employees increasing, the actual Federal workforce continues to decline.
https://usg01.safelinks.protection.office365.us/?url=https%3A%2F%2Flink.govexec.com%2Fclick%2F37781921.96292%2FaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ292ZXhlYy5jb20vd29ya2ZvcmNlLzIwMjQvMTIvZmVkZXJhbC13b3JrZm9yY2UtZ2VuZXJhbGx5LW1vcmUtZGl2ZXJzZS11cy1wb3B1bGF0aW9uLWdhcHMtcGVyc2lzdC80MDE1NDY_b3JlZj1nb3ZleGVjX3RvZGF5X25s%2F635a9690cbebeb922d09270aBf2e0a3bf&data=05%7C02%7Crichard.f.kane2.civ%40army.mil%7Cc1c4f909b0f34048514808dd190fb045%7Cfae6d70f954b481192b60530d6f84c43%7C0%7C0%7C638694277365741800%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=yRodstLGuomELDCmrEKzY2Fj7%2FEUa2sM427cq6o9pEc%3D&reserved=0
Elon Himmler, leader of Trump’s SS Protection Squadron, has now made explicit his threats to primary any Republican who does not confirm Trump’s nominees or comply with Musk’s agenda for the budget and deregulation.
Elon has said his political action committee would “play a significant role in primaries.” And “How else? There is no other way,” The final solution?
Musk spent $44 billion on Twitter to get a platform for Trump’s election. He spent $275 million on a PAC for Trump’s election. He has no qualms about spending $1 million, $10 million, $100 million to primary any Senator who crosses him, and they know it. Anyone who does not fall in line risks becoming extinct. This is Germany in the 1930s.
This is the inherent problem with billionaires. They literally own Congress now. It is a regime of terror.
The non-financial press have caught on to debt troubles in France. From The Telegraph:
“Investors dump French debt as political crisis grows”
“Official data show foreign investors…pulling money out of France in recent months. Japanese investors alone pulled €12bn (£10bn) out of French bonds in the three months following Mr Macron’s decision to call the snap election this summer,”
“Data to the end of October also show…purchases by French banks falling from €33bn in the first half of the year to €5bn in the four months following the summer election.”
https://archive.is/gXJIW
In fact, CDS and sovereign bond spreads have narrowed since PM Barnier’s resignation on Thursday.
Looks like the Federal budget CR comes down to the question of disaster funding. Democrats want to help those who’ve suffered from events beyond their control. Republicans, not really:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/12/09/johnson-pass-spending-bill-00193377
democrats need to step away from disaster funding as a negotiated item. it is something that needs to pass, so why would you give something up for it to be included? focus on priority items that you want. let the party in control concede the items that should be in the bill. republicans simply hold their breath and wait for democrats to negotiate that republicans should breath, and give something in return for that happening. let disaster relief fail for a while, and simply point out the republican lawmakers let it happen. sure, people will be hurt. but the red parts of Florida and North Carolina voted in these representatives, so let them govern and pull funding for those impacted. elections have consequences.
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