EJ Antoni writes:
Today’s employment data showed further gains in earnings, but cumulative price increases have still far outpaced earnings growth over the last 4 years.
According to the Household Budget Index, it’s even worse when just considering prices for things you have to buy, i.e., food, housing, etc.
Once again, I cannot verify Dr. Antoni’s conclusions. I use FRED’s AHETPI series, which is for all production and non-supervisory workers. Then, recalling the CPI tends to overstate inflation in part because it’s a Laspeyres index (although less so over time), I deflate using a variety of deflators.
Figure 1: Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers in private sector deflated by CPI-U (blue), chained CPI (tan), PCE deflator – market based (green), and AIER Everyday Price Index (red), all in 2021M01$. November CPI deflated wage uses Cleveland Fed y/y nowcast as of 12/7/2024. Chained CPI seasonally adjusted by author using X-13. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, Cleveland Fed, AIER, and author’s calculations.
Dr. Antoni focused on the Primerica HBI to make his case. I rely on the American Institute for Economic Research’s (AIER) “Everyday Price Index” which has the same objective of covering necessities. One can see real average hourly earnings using this metric is even higher than using the CPI-U.
Off topic – Syria is bad:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syrian-rebels-seize-fourth-city-close-homs-threat-assads-rule-2024-12-07/
Homs is under attack. Diplomats are evacuating from Damascus in fear that Assad may be gone soon.
However bad Assad is, however wretched life has been in Syria till now, the near term is going to be worse. Urban warfare and a breakdown of normal economic and social activity even where there is no combat make for ghastly living conditions. The various insurgent groups may most affiliate themselves with Turkey, but if the government falls, they’ll almost certainly be at each others’ throats.
Looks to me, who knows little, like Turkey’s proxies have struck when Assad was weakest and now seek to win before Assad’s foreign benefactors can mount a fresh defense. If they stall, the outlook may change quickly.
However this goes, Israel’s criminal behavior now has competition for ruining lives in the region. Turkey and Iran are may now square off anywhere they both have proxies, and in trade and diplomatic efforts. That’s bad.
I don’t have a firm grasp on Egypt’s interests in this situation, but one thing is always true – Egypt has balance-of-power concerns. Turkey and Iran are rivals to Egypt’s influence in the region. Turkey’s economic troubles get lots of attention because Turkey was so much healthier than Iran and Egypt, but that attention can give the wrong impression – Turkey still swings a big bat in the economics of the region. If Turkey pulls of a win in Syria, Egypt’s leaders are probably not going to sleep well.
This “little” war may determine the region’s geopolitical context for years to come.
Here’s bio of Ahmed Al Sharaa, aka Abu Mohammed al-Jolanit, the leader of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) in Syria:
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/06/middleeast/syria-hts-al-jolani-profile-intl/index.html?
It documents his transition from al Qaeda front man to “our kind of warlord”. He has worked to make himself palatable to the U.S. He’s going to need Syria’s oil revenues and more to make a go of running Syria and the U.S. will have somehing to say about that.
Russia has withdrawn it’s naval vessels from the port of Tartus, its only port in the Mediterranean. Al Sharaa will have to decide whether to court Russia by allowing Russian vessels access to the port, or the U.S. by denying it. Turkey’s Erdogan will presumably have some influence in this decision.
New kid in the neighborhood nearly always means big changes. Iran has lost an ally, as has Russia and, to a lesser extent, China. Syria’s shift from Iranian ally to wild card will change things for all the big players – Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and Israel – but I’ve not much idea how. I suspect they’re scrambling to figure it out. Lebanon’s outlook is very much altered, maybe Jordan’s, too.
Pure misery for the rank-and-file at U.S. agencies covering the region. A presidential transition, a new game in the Middle East AND holiday shopping?
Waiting for the elections!
Syria’s changed circumstances are causing concern outside the Middle East. From David Hundeyin’s Twitter account:
“Dear AES and other competent African states:
“ARM YOURSELVES TO THE TEETH! Nothing else matters right now. Take every red cent of budget available to you and pour it into military hardware and recruitment. Don’t wait till next year, do it now. NOW. Because once the empire is done with Iran, it is coming for Africa. The terrorist army that has just taken Syria WILL head west – and it’s not going to Europe. Militarise the entire continent now!”
Hundeyin is a Nigerian jounalist. I have no idea whether he is also an investor in weapons manufacture.
Meanwhile, just for laughs, Naked Capitalism is linking to bloviators who claim that ISIS just took over Syria with the help of the U.S. and that the U.S. is backing ISIS in Russia, the Middle East and Africa, even as the U.S. bombs ISIS facilities in Syria one a daily basis. Is Yves Smith actually Tulsi Gabbard?
Politico’s round-up of winners and losers:
https://www.politico.eu/article/bashar-assad-syria-downfall-the-winners-and-losers/
Something any competent journalist could have written – no big insights, but OK background.
There is also a publicly available inflation index updated daily, similar to the “Billion Prices Project,” called Truflation.
Link here: https://truflation.com/marketplace/us-inflation-rate
As of this week, prices since January 2020 are up 25.98% per that index.
New Deal Democrat: Yes, interestingly similar trajectory to chained CPI, at least relative to 2023M01.
According to the pundits, Assad could have won if he had gone on the Joe Rogan show.
This is great! I’ve been laughing about it for two days now.
Well, it’s also possible that he succumbed to the global anti-incumbent trend due to inflation.
you cannot verify the conclusions because he did not conduct legitimate research. you cannot verify the results coming from a political hack. that is how you know they are a political hack.