From NABE today:
Here’s a comparison to other forecasts.
Figure 1: GDP (black), May SPF (light blue), April WSJ (Red), March FT-Booth (green triangle), IMF April WEO (red square), May NABE (brown inverted triangle), GDPNow of 5/16 (blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, WSJ, FT-Booth macroeconomists survey, IMF WEO, NABE, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
Proportion of respondents believing the probability of recession exceeds 50% in 2025 rose from 8% (April) to 37% (May).
Economist toady Kevin Hassett today on Fox: “What’s going to happen is there’s going to be a lot of trade deals and firms are going to lift off. All of America knows that the golden age is coming. I think you are going to look at a second half of the year will be way north of 3% growth, probably north of 4%.”
Ooh, Kevin, are you willing to put money on that bet? I’ll take the under.
Heck, I would even take odds on getting to DOW 36,000 — again.
And then later when none of that happens Kevin will declare that it was Biden’s fault.
breaking news. the fda has updated its approval process for covid vaccines. instead of mimicking the flu shot protocol, which still exists for now, the fda has determined that updated shots will require a randomized test for approval. so now updated shot studies will need to occur after the virus is prevalent in the population. and during the trial, if the shot is shown to be beneficial in reducing deaths, and the data appropriately scrutinized, the fda will approve its use. essentially after the virus has shown itself to be dangerous. in essence, in order for a vaccine to be approved, it will be necessary for the pharmaceutial industry to demonstrate the virus is deadly before considering approval. people must die before approval of the vaccine. thanks rfk jr. and losers such as rick stryker, bruce hall and corev. way to take the pinnacle of health care and beat it into a third world order.
Oh for f#$k sake!
Trump downplayed Covid because he wasn’t willing to do the work of being a real president, and because bad news was bad for his re-election. JFK denigrates vaccination because that’s how he makes a million a year. He’s vaccinated and so are his kids.
This ghoulish approach to validating vaccines – “show me the dead bodies” – is just evil.
“All of America knows that the golden age is coming.”
“NABE 2025 Growth Outlook Downgraded from 1.9% (April) to 1.3% (May)”
“US consumer sentiment drops to near record low in May on inflation worries, tariff uncertainty”
Anf that’s a faux business headline:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-consumer-sentiment-drops-near-record-low-may-inflation-worries-tariff-uncertainty
Yep. Golden age. That’s what folks are expecting.
I never thought I would hear a U.S. Treasury Secretary say “who cares” about the US getting our most consequential credit downgrade since 1919. And during a press conference the White House Press Secretary denied the reconciliation bill would add to our debt. Moody’s downgrade is increasing borrowing costs for U.S. consumers and firms and there is extremely high uncertainty for business planning due to continued trade war uncertainty. Meanwhile 100,000s of consumers and workers are being deported.
“who cares”
bessent will not be hurt in the least if he is a failure. he is rich already. and nothing he is doing will result in a loss of money. although there is a low probability that his actions could result in a profitable grift on his part. this asymmetry in risk is why he can make the honest statement “who cares”. he really does not. he has no long term career in finance to worry about. he is retired.
I’d suggest a slightly different assessment. Yes, he’s rich, so doesn’t have a meaningful downside. However, the possibility that Trumpism survives through the next couple of elections represents an enormous upside. He’s betting on access to power – in rent seeking – as a potentially massive upside.
Bessent is rich, but in his circles, he’s far from “Rich!”. He’s an also-ran in the world of finance. Access to power means an opportunity to “level up”, and that’s all that matters to some people.