ERS predicts 2.2% increase in food-at-home prices in 2025.
Figure 1: CPI food-at-home (black); ERS forecast of January (light blue square), ERS forecast of March (red triangle), ERS forecast of June (inverted green triangle). Source: BLS via FRED, ERS, and author’s calculations.
While food-at-home inflation has decreased, it still remains the fact that grocery prices are rising — not falling. Further PPI-food manufacturing continues to rise, so we can be reasonably confidence of continued grocery price increases.
That 2.2% forecast compares to 1.7% last year, 1.3% in 2023. In only 4 of the past ten years has food-at-home inflation been 2.2% or higher, three of those in the COVID era:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1KK38
We elected the felon-in-chief mostly because of inflation, right? Smooth move, fellow voters.
Now boys – don’t you worry none! King Trump loves the farmers and he will get you subsidies or do like last time and send direct payments to ya (In 2018 Trump administration introduced $16 billion of new trade aid. In 2019, the Donald Trump administration increased the bailout to $16 billion)
Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) told MA that farmers need to “grab a hoe and hold on.”
“Our farmers are in trouble,” he told MA last week. “They’re in bad trouble. I don’t know whether there’s anything we can do to save them, unless these tariffs work, and I hope we can. We’re going to do everything we possibly can.”
(ah the great American welfare commodity producers – and sure keep voting for the GOP that is intent on destroying your business.)
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-agriculture/2025/07/21/farmers-tariff-patience-wears-thin-00465118
Walmart prices are going up:
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/business/money-report/heres-where-walmart-prices-are-changing-and-staying-the-same-as-trumps-tariffs-hit/3747461/
SAD
donald trump and bruce hall promised me affordable housing and 2% mortgage rates. now that last time i checked, mortgage rates were nearly 7% and homes were still unaffordable. hey bruce, when are you going to come through with these promises? not only do i have to deal with inflation getting much hotter, but unemployment is rising and republicans are spending the national debt like drunken sailors. what gives bruce hall? did you lie to me about that mortgage rate?