How can we estimate the separate economic effects of shocks to oil supply and demand? I’ve just finished a research paper with Notre Dame Professor Christiane Baumeister that develops a new approach to this question.
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Author Archives: James_Hamilton
How do consumers respond to lower gasoline prices?
U.S. gasoline prices averaged $3.31 a gallon over December 2013 to February 2014 but only $2.31 a gallon over December 2014 to February 2015. How did consumers respond to this windfall in their spending power? A new study by the JP Morgan Chase Institute has come up with some interesting answers.
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Supply, demand and the price of oil
Could the price of oil be a value such that the current quantity produced exceeds the current quantity consumed? The answer is yes, and indeed that has been the case for much of the past year.
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Economic importance of China
How important would an economic downturn in China be for the United States?
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Forecasting interest rates
There was lots of action in financial markets last week, with much of the attention focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve. The interest rate on a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond edged up 10 basis points early in the week in anticipation that the Fed might finally raise its target for the short-term interest rate. But it shed all that and more after the Fed announced it was standing pat for now.
Price of CBOE option based on 10-year U.S. Treasury yield; to convert to the Treasury yield itself divide by 10. Source: Google Finance.
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Common factors in commodity and asset markets
Increases in oil production in the United States and the Middle East were certainly key factors in the huge drop in oil prices over the last year. Nevertheless, one can’t help but be struck by the fact that the weekly changes in oil prices correlate with dramatic moves in other commodity and financial markets.
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U.S. tight oil production decline
U.S. oil production has begun to drop in response to low oil prices, but not as dramatically as many had anticipated.
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China’s economic slowdown
U.S. stock prices as measured by the S&P500 fell almost 7% last week. What’s going on?
Value of S&P500 index over last 3 months. Source: Google Finance.
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OPEC and world oil supplies
There’s been a remarkable surge in world oil production over the last year. And the United States is only part of the story.
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Current economic conditions
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.3% annual rate in the second quarter. You can’t describe the new data as favorable, but I’m still hopeful about what comes next.
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