World field production of crude oil increased 2.9 million barrels a day in the 12 months ended last July. That compares with a 3.6 mb/d increase over the entire nine years from Jan 2005 to Dec 2013.
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Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Preparing for lift-off
The strong October employment report makes it look likely that the era of zero interest rates will soon come to an end, at least for the United States.
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U.S. economy keeps growing
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced yesterday that U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.5% annual rate in the third quarter. Although the headline number sounds disappointing, the underlying fundamentals look solid.
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My experience with Uber
I’ve recently started using Uber for transportation when traveling and wanted to share some of my impressions.
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Links for 2015-10-18
Quick links to a few items I found interesting.
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Economic effects of shocks to oil supply and demand
How can we estimate the separate economic effects of shocks to oil supply and demand? I’ve just finished a research paper with Notre Dame Professor Christiane Baumeister that develops a new approach to this question.
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How do consumers respond to lower gasoline prices?
U.S. gasoline prices averaged $3.31 a gallon over December 2013 to February 2014 but only $2.31 a gallon over December 2014 to February 2015. How did consumers respond to this windfall in their spending power? A new study by the JP Morgan Chase Institute has come up with some interesting answers.
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Supply, demand and the price of oil
Could the price of oil be a value such that the current quantity produced exceeds the current quantity consumed? The answer is yes, and indeed that has been the case for much of the past year.
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Economic importance of China
How important would an economic downturn in China be for the United States?
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Forecasting interest rates
There was lots of action in financial markets last week, with much of the attention focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve. The interest rate on a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond edged up 10 basis points early in the week in anticipation that the Fed might finally raise its target for the short-term interest rate. But it shed all that and more after the Fed announced it was standing pat for now.
Price of CBOE option based on 10-year U.S. Treasury yield; to convert to the Treasury yield itself divide by 10. Source: Google Finance.
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