The price of oil passed another milestone last week, falling below $50 a barrel, a level that I had not expected to see again in my lifetime.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Supply, demand and the price of oil
A few weeks ago I offered some calculations suggesting that lower demand for oil might account for about $20/barrel of the dramatic decline in the price of oil since last summer. Here I point to some other evidence consistent with that conclusion.
Do falling oil prices raise the threat of deflation?
The spectacular drop in oil prices means that inflation is going to fall even further below the Fed’s 2% target. Does that raise any new risks for the economy? I say no, and here’s why.
Oil prices as an indicator of global economic conditions
West Texas Intermediate sold for $105 a barrel at the start of July, but ended last week at $58. The most important factor has been surging U.S. production. But another reason oil prices have slid so much is weakness in demand for the product, which may be related to a slowdown of overall world economic growth. Here I comment on the importance of that second factor.
New estimates of the effects of the minimum wage
A large literature has examined the effects on employment of raising the minimum wage, with different researchers arriving at conflicting conclusions. The core reason that economists can’t answer questions like this better is that we usually can’t run controlled experiments. There is always some reason that the legislators chose to raise the minimum wage, often related to prevailing economic conditions. We can never be sure if changes in employment that followed the legislation were the result of those motivating conditions or the result of the legislation itself. For example, if Congress only raises the minimum wage when the economy is on the rebound and all wages are about to rise anyway, we’d usually observe a rise in employment following a hike in the minimum wage that is not caused by the legislation itself. UCSD Ph.D. candidate Michael Wither and his adviser Professor Jeffrey Clemens have some interesting new research that sheds some more light on this question.
A glut of oil?
The world is awash in oil, I’m hearing. The problem is, it’s fairly expensive oil.
Lower oil prices and the U.S. economy
For the last 4 years, the national average retail price of gasoline in the United States stayed within a range of $3.25-$4.00 a gallon. But that all changed this fall, with U.S. consumers now paying an average price of $2.82.
Social Security and Paid-Up Workers
Americans are living longer and retiring earlier. But how, as an individual or as a country, can you finance a 30-year retirement with a 40-year career? Stanford Professor John Shoven recently visited UCSD and presented some interesting policy suggestions.
How to get an academic job in economics
It’s that time of year again when our graduate students present seminars based on their dissertations in preparation for flying around the country trying to get an academic job. So I thought as a public service I’d call attention to this instructional video from the faculty at the University of Wisconsin on what new Ph.D.’s can expect when they give their first job talk.
Evaluation of quantitative easing
Last week the U.S. Federal Reserve closed a chapter on the experiment with quantitative easing, just as the Bank of Japan opened a new one. Seems like a good time to comment on some of what we’ve learned so far.