The Conference Board estimate of consumer confidence comes out tomorrow. Here’s some guesses on how bad it’ll be.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
113 Years of the Real Oil Price (WTI)
Tyler Godspeed (former acting CEA Chair Trump 1.0; chief economist ExxonMobil) observes that shocks as determinants of recessions means they are essentially unpredictable.
Brent: Closing in on Post-Strike Highs
From Barchart, 9:30pm CT:
S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratios
From Yardeni:
Federal Budget, Economic Report of the President, 2026 Coming Out April 3
According to Politico, if you were wondering when the budget was coming out. The budget should have come out February 2nd.
What’s the Plan?
I see currently betting on US troops in Iran by April 30th at 70% (a high of 72% earlier today), with betting on maximum oil price in 2026 of $145/bbl.
Five Year US Treasury CDS
In case you were wondering:
“Geopolitics becoming ‘key risk’ for central banks – panel”
Central Banking news account from the conference The ECB and Its Watchers, on Wednesday:
Sentiment Dives to Near “Liberation Day” Levels
Final U.Michigan sentiment at 53.3, down from preliminary 55.5 reading. Expectations down 2.4 pts from preliminary.