Canada is America’s second largest trading partner. In 2023, of the $416 billion of imported goods from Canada, $119 billion is oil and gas, and petroleum products and coal. (Total merchandise imports is $3.1 trn.) From the Milwaukee Sentinel Journal today:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
On the Eve of (Trade) Destruction*
The White House has confirmed imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China tomorrow (Feb 1). Why are tariffs on Canada and Mexico different than (some) other tariffs? Consider this graph courtesy of Bloomberg via Torsten Slok:
Business Cycle Indicators – Where’s that Recession?
Here are key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP. Seven days ago , DiMartino Booth at 13:50, says it started in Spring/Summer 2024. Heritage’s EJ Antoni says it started in August. Data for most series through December.
Bessent’s 3-3-3 “Plan” in the Context of 2024Q4 Advance GDP Release
Actual hit GDPNow nowcast of 2.3%, q/q AR (see Jim’s post for a discussion) Still, achieving Treasury Secretary Bessent’s 3% annual growth (in addition to 3% deficits and additional 3 million barrels oil) is going to be tough.
Hiring Freeze at the FAA
From article 8 days ago:
…the White House has put a hiring freeze in place, prohibiting the replacement of open government positions or the creation of new ones while the administration evaluates reductions in the workforce. The White House plans to release a memorandum with further guidance within 90 days. This has drawn criticism from lawmakers as the FAA has been ramping up controller hiring.
2024Q4 Advance Release Tomorrow
Bloomberg consensus 2.7%, GDPNow 2.3% as of today. Jim Hamilton comments on the release tomorrow.
Guest Contribution: “The Federal Funds Rate: FOMC Projections, Policy Rule Prescriptions, and Futures Market Predictions from the December 2024 Meeting”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
Heritage’s EJ Antoni on “Cleaning House” at the Fed
“I think Trump is really holding a grudge, and rightly so” noted Antoni, “I’m not sure that there’s anything Trump can do to work with this institution [the Fed]. I think what he really needs to do is clean house.
Economic Confidence in the Future Declines
January Conference Board confidence index comes in at 104.1 vs. 105.7 Bloomberg consensus, down from 109.5 in December. A 5.4 point decline is about 1 standard deviation (2021M07-2024M12). More interestingly, expectations (as opposed to current situation) is also down.