Nominal consumption above consensus (1.8% m/m vs. 1.3%). Personal income was 0.6% m/m, vs. consensus 1%. The NBER BCDC looks at real consumption and real income ex-current transers for conjunctural analysis. These are plotted below, along with with real manufacturing and trade industry sales.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
GDP, and Guesses about GDI, GDO
We don’t have estimates of GDI, but if we assume nominal net operating surpluses remain constant at 2022Q3 levels ($6.2 trn out of $26 trn GDI SAAR), then we have the following picture.
Dealing with Seasonality with 12 Month Changes: the QCEW
(If you’re wondering about estimating seasonals — and you might be right wonder — then here’s the alternative.) QCEW data are not reported on a seasonally adjusted basis, which makes comparison with the other regularly reported BLS series, based on surveys, difficult. One way to address this issue, while sacrificing a more current perspective, is to use 12 month changes. Here is the QCEW series compared against two others measures of nonfarm payroll growth.
Employment Levels and Cumulative Changes: Tales from the QCEW
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data were released today. Recalling that some observers were claiming a recession occurred in 2022H1 (and/or 2022Q2) because household survey and QCEW employment numbers had flattened. With revised Q1 and Q2 data and new Q3 data, we have the following pictures of levels for nonfarm payroll employment and private nonfarm payroll employment.
For Some People, There’s a Single Solution to Every Problem
Ron Paul, on ending the conflict in the Ukraine. From CounterCurrents:
Do Declining Imports Signal an Imminent Recession?
Maybe. Maybe not. Some reasons to wonder.
Trade and Financial Policy Openness in EMDE’s, 1975-2019
Working on another project, I found this interesting correlation between the IMF’s “Measure of Aggregate Trade Restrictions” (MATR) (Estafania-Flores, Furceri, Hannan, Ostry and Rose (2022)) and the Chinn-Ito (JDE 2006) measure of financial openness (KAOPEN).
Just Because You Provide a Link, Does Not Mean that Link Is Worth Reading
This reprint of a The worst statistical analysis I have seen this year is motivated by Mr. Bruce Hall’s tendency to provide any ol’ link as support for a given position (actually, I believe it’s the worst I’ve *ever* seen).
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One Year In: What Did Putin’s Gambit Do to Spreads, Uncertainty, and Activity?
Bluntly put, term spreads moved toward inversion, and inflation expectations adjusted for premia increased. VIX has been elevated since February 2022, and GeoPolitical Risk rose in the period right after the invasion. Growth, which had been accelerating according to weekly indicators, then decelerated. In other words, “Thanks, Putin”.
Guest Contribution: “Are Google data really useful for macroeconomic nowcasting?”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School, Paris and Director of the International Institute of Forecasters).