The CBO released its Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023-33 yesterday. The projection, based on data available as of January 6, shows a shallow decline in GDP in 2023Q1 and 2023Q2.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Weekly Macro Indicators thru 2/11: Up, Up and Away, or Slow Deceleration?
Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 2/11/2023 were released today.
January 2023 PPI
The core figure exceeds consensus (y/y 5.4% vs. 4.9% Bloomberg).
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-January 2023
Industrial production at consensus, while manufacturing production and retail sales above. For conjunctural analysis, industrial production is what NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee pays more attention to.
Was Q2 Employment Growth a Lot Slower than CES Estimate?
Maybe. From Englander/Hewin at Standard Charter (gated):
“We had to destroy the village in order to save it.”
I’m reminded of that statement (perhaps apocryphal) when I think of Senator Johnson’s views on Social Security. From WPR:
January Inflation
Year-on-year headline and core inflation both down, but both slightly above consensus (with headline at 6.4% vs. 6.2% Bloomberg consensus). (Month-on-month both at consensus, given rounding). Other measures provide ambiguous signals.
The Wisconsin Economic Outlook and the Impact of Recent Policies
Last Thursday, I talked on WPR’s Central Time about the national economy and Wisconsin’s outlook given President Biden’s policies. I noted that the macro outlook had improved substantially since last December, as the economy proved more resilient than expected, and inflation decelerated more than anticipated. That was true nationally, as well as locally.
Forecasters Up Projections of GDP, Employment
The Survey of Professional Forecasters February survey was released on Friday. The median outlook has improved considerably since early January.
Sentiment and Misery (and Maybe Partisanship)
The University of Michigan’s February consumer sentiment index (preliminary) is out today. Here’s the picture (series inverted so down is improvement) and the “misery index”, the sum of unemployment and y/y CPI inflation.