Compared to a sample average, the inflation adjusted dollar is strong. It’s not clear what that means — namely because the (real) dollar is not statistically distinguishable from a unit root process. The dollar is also likely to get stronger, based on historical patterns.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Guest Contribution: “Global Recession Is Not Inevitable”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This post is part of a symposium at Project Syndicate.
Weekly Economic Indicators, thru August 20
Here are the Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (NY Fed) and the OECD Weekly Tracker, covering data through August 20.
Bank Lending, thru Aug. 17
Or, a post for Steven Kopits.
GDP, GDO, GDP+, Hours and Income
Following up on Friday’s post (“When is a recession not a recession?”) by Jan P.A.M. Jacobs, Samad Sarferaz, Jan-Egbert Sturm and Simon van Norden , here’s a picture in levels of some of the alternative GDP measures, along with two key variables followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (aggregate hours, personal income excluding transfers), at the quarterly frequency.
The “recession…of H1 2022”? (Part II)
“AFFIDAVIT IN SUPPORT OF AN APPLICATION UNDER RULE 41 FOR A WARRANT TO SEARCH AND SEIZE “
From WaPo [link added 2pm]:
An FBI affidavit filed prior to the search of former president Donald Trump’s home says agents reviewed 184 classified documents that were kept at the Florida property after he left the White House — including several with Trump’s apparent handwriting on them…
Here’s the redacted affidavit. [link]
Guest Contribution: “Why Commodity Prices May Have Peaked”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Weekly Economic Activity Measures thru 8/20
As measured by the Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI:
Nonfarm Payroll Employment and Implications of the Preliminary Benchmark Revision
Each year, the establishment series is benchmark-revised. The preliminary estimate for March was released yesterday. Short story – employment growth looks faster and stronger – up 462K relative to original 150856K (up by 0.3%).