Michigan is down in July, while business unit costs are up slightly.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
VoxEU: “The Russian sanctions and dollar foreign exchange reserves”
From a VoxEU article today, by Robert N. McCauley with Hiro Ito and Menzie Chinn:
Will the freezing of the Bank of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves undermine the dollar’s predominant role in official foreign exchange reserves? This column examines the aggregate evidence since end-2021 for any reduction in the dollar share of official foreign exchange reserves against a baseline constructed with data from 1999 through 2021. The observed dollar share in March 2024 differs little from the out-of-sample projection based on this baseline. On this showing, official reserve managers have not reduced the role of the dollar since the freeze of the Bank of Russia’s assets.
Guest Contribution: “Why have US shares, gold and the dollar been soaring?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared in The Guardian.
Growth in Swing States
As measured by the coincident index, over the last 3 months:
Odds: PredictIt 4pm ET
For Rep/Dem, 53 cents/51 cents.
Russia: Policy Rate Raised to 18%
As of today:
Business Cycle Indicators at July’s End
Nominal consumption, PCE deflator m/m at consensus, nominal income at +0.2% vs. +0.4%. Here’s the picture of key NBER BCDC indicators plus monthly GDP:
2024Q2 GDP Advance Release: Too Good to Be True?
GDP surprised on the upside at 2.8% q/q AR vs. Bloomberg consensus 2.0%. One purported financial adviser writes:
2.8% Fake GDP is number are reported by biased govt agencies. What a sham…..believe nothing question everything. Does anyone believe economy is same now as it was 6 yrs ago?
Prediction Markets on the Election: July 24, 2024
From PredictIt, 4:30pm ET: Republican/Democratic win probabilities back to where they were the day before the debate.
MacIver Institute: “The Real Wisconsin Economy”
Michael Lucas comments on July 1st, painting a grim picture of Wisconsin employment. For comparison, here are some other aggregate numbers, including the Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index, released today.