…although incomplete data for 2022.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Reserve De-Dollarization in Progress?
More articles on dollar dominance, e.g. in Foreign Policy, Wells Fargo, vs. BitcoinNews. But most of the discussion centers on dollar use in terms medium of exchange etc. (SWIFT use, invoicing). Here, some recent trends for the reserve dimension.
An Alternative Civilian Employment Measure
Several observers have pointed out the gap between civilian employment as measured by the CPS, and the nonfarm payroll employment numbers obtained from the CES. The CPS measure includes new population controls, which depend on the estimated immigration. CBO estimates a lot more net immigration than Census, which when applied to employment might alter our views of employment.
“Mandate for Leadership” (aka Project 2025) on Monetary Policy
See full document here (couldn’t download from Heritage when I tried). Here’s the text for monetary policy.
Alternative Employment Measures of NFP
CPS based series adjusted to NFP way below official NFP, early benchmark.
Employment Situation and Business Cycle Indicators
NFP at +206K vs +191K.
Consensus vs Actual – Real Time Sahm Rule for June [updated]
Bloomberg consensus is 4%. This implies near trigger for the Sahm Rule (in real time):
What If ADP Is Registering the True Employment Growth Rate?
Then instead of 135224 thousand private employment in April, it would be 135509 thousand.
Business Cycle Indicators, July 1st
Monthly GDP up two months in a row. Final sales in May up, but not offsetting completely decline in April. Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, plus monthly GDP from SPGMI (formerly IHS-Markit, and Macroeconomic Advisers before that).
Latest Wisconsin Macro Indicators
Last week we got GDP and wages and salaries for Q1, as well as employment and coincident indicators for May. With these data, we have the following picture.