Michigan 1 year expectations at 4.3% vs 3.3% Bloomberg consensus.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Ante-mutua portoriis EPU
…or I wonder how “reciprocal tariffs” will affect economic policy uncertainty measures.
Business Cycle Indicators with January Employment
Change in NFP below consensus, but previous months upwardly revised. Big benchmark revision (-610 thousand), but even larger — 2 million upward — revision to December 2024 civilian employment.
*Reported* Civilian Employment Jumps 2.4 Million (1.5%)(!)
I.e., Beware the footnotes. New population controls results in updated 2025 employment figures (but 2024 not updated). Much of the purported gap between NFP (establishment survey) and adjusted civilian employment (household survey) disappears as a consequence.
Costing Trump Tax Priorities
From CRFB, $5-$11.2 trn over 10 years:
Correlation or Causation?
We know that correlation does not necessarily mean causation. But sometimes you gotta wonder, especially as Mr. Trump’s administration is busily dismantling the CIA. First, GW Bush ignore the PDB of August 8, 2001, on “Bin Laden determined to strike in US”. Then Trump 1.0 eliminates the NSC directorate on pandemic preparedness before the Covid-19 pandemic (and apparently with the exception of Peter Navarro(!) ignores warnings about Covid).
Egg Prices Upward
Covered for difference prices as reported by TradingEconomics is jumping up to $7/dozen for January.
“Trump does not rule out sending US troops to Gaza”
MilitaryNews just now:
Trump is not ruling out sending U.S. troops to secure Gaza, saying in response to a reporter’s question: “As far as Gaza is concerned, we’ll do what is necessary. If it’s necessary, we’ll do that.”
Soybeans, Again
You might well wonder why China didn’t retaliate against US soybean exports in the wake of Trump’s 10% tax on Chinese goods. Was it because heavy tariffs were already in place in response to the earlier Section 301 tariffs? No, given the Phase 1 of the trade deal (not that there was ever a Phase 2), tariffs were reduce. Here’s the current situation, from the National Corn Growers Association.
Fourth (maybe Third) Largest Tax Increase Ever – China 2025 Tariffs
No tariffs yet on Canada, Mexico (and EU for that matter). Still, 10% on $427 bn imports (on top of previous tariffs) is a big deal.