With the core PCE deflator, we have these measures of what’s happening to core.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Business Cycle Indicators for Biden’s Economy in October
One of the last snapshots of the Biden economy show real consumption and personal income rising, with consumption rising 0.6% (vs. consensus of 0.3%), and faster than inflation. Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Guest Contribution: “Can Musk find $2 trillion in spending cuts for Trump?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate and the Guardian.
Are You a Mainstream (Macro) Economist?
A self test (a follow up to this post):
When You Hear a Critique of Mainstream Economists (from Someone Who Doesn’t Know What “Mainstream” Economists Do), Run
“Trumpflation” Risks Likely Overstated by Lance Roberts via Zerohedge:
QCEW Employment Change Y/Y to June 2024
The percentage change is less than that for the CES estimate. Does this mean there are a lot fewer people employed that indicated by the official series (e.g. here)? Here’s data from 2023M06 onward:
Russia: Policy Rate at 21%, Official Inflation Rate at 10% (m/m annualized)
Locking up the butter in Russia (CNN). Official inflation in October was 0.8% m/m (annualize that and it’s about 10%. That’s the official inflation rate. The ex post rate is around 11% then.
Natural (but Stupid) Experiments?
Since the incoming administration has indicated the deportations will start on day one, I thought it of use to consider the sectoral impacts of a policy of mass deportation (aside from macro based ones as discussed here).
Guest Contribution: “How Institutions Interact with Exchange Rates After the 2024 US Presidential Election: New High-Frequency Evidence”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California) and Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes). This post is based on the paper of the same title.
Instantaneous Consumer Inflation in October
Including HICP and nowcasted PCE deflator.