All have a positive gradient in Q1.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
On the Recession Indicator Watch: Retail Sales
Out of curiosity, I peruse the web to see who is still saying a recession is coming (with an open mind). This tweet suggests retail sales are the indicator de jour:
Donald Trump on Electric Ships/Boats
From a speech at Las Vegas (source: Newsweek):
“Do Foreign Yield Curves Predict U.S. Recessions and GDP Growth?”
Yes! From Rashed Ahmed and Menzie Chinn, just published in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
“Why the Recession Still Isn’t Here”
That’s the title of a Timiraos/WSJ article three days ago:
Six Measures of Employment over the Past Year
CES measures indicate faster growth than others.
Wisconsin Economic Outlook: May 2024
The employment forecast improves – from Wisconsin DoR:
Employment and Business Cycle Indicators
Positive NFP employment surprise.
Guest Contribution: “Market participants versus rate-setters: a forecasting horse race”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Luisa Carpinelli, Filippo Natoli, Kevin Pallara, Luca Rossi, Sergio Santoro and Massimiliano Sfregola; Bank of Italy, DG-Economics, Statistics and Research, Advanced Economies and Macroeconomic Policies Division. The views presented in this column represent those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Italy or the ESCB.
