The efficient markets hypothesis indicates that new information should induce a revision to the present discounted value of future dividends, and hence a change in the market value. Apparently news came today.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Explaining the 2022-23 Disinflation Out-of-Sample
In tomorrow’s lecture on the Phillips Curve and the recent inflation surge for Econ 442, I ask whether a modifed Blanchard-Cerutti-Summers (2015) Phillips Curve specification can predict the disinflation. Answer: Yes.
Wisconsin End-of-2023 Surge
From BEA state level data released on Friday. GDP grows 4.2% SAAR, Chained CPI deflated wages and salaries by 1.9%; Year-on-Year, 1.5% and 3.0% respectively. While NFP only grew 0.9% q/q AR, the Philadelphia Fed’s early benchmark measure of NFP grew 1.5%.
The Arrogance of Ignorance
Reader JohnH berates mainstream economists for ignoring the distribution of income while focusing on the average, despite multiple attempts to point out that I’ve talked about median incomes and wages a lot. To wit:
GDP, GDO, GDP+ and Final Sales
With Q4 3rd release, we have an estimate of GDO, in addition to GDP.
Business Cycle Indicators: February Personal Income, Consumption, and January Mfg/Trade Industry Sales
Plus 3rd release of 2023Q3 GDP.
Guest Contribution: “Adjusting the Current Account”
Today we are fortunate to have as a guest contributor Joseph Joyce, Professor of Economics and M. Margaret Ball Professor of International Relations at Wellesley College.
Wisconsin Current Economic Conditions
Coincident index suggests acceleration.
Guest Contribution: “The Historical Puzzle of US Economic Performance under Democrats vs. Republicans”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. I thank Sohaib Nasim for research assistance and Emil Kaneti for catching a mistake in an earlier draft.
Quotes that Should be Remembered Forever
From March 2020: