An interesting picture from Jim Reid/Deutsche Bank:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
FOMC March SEP on GDP
2024 q4/q4 growth at 2.1% matches FT-IGM survey discussed in previous post.
WaPo: “In Wisconsin, a vote for Biden or Trump could come down to grocery prices”
That article prompted me to wondered whether Wisconsin’s grocery prices had moved up faster than the Nation’s. They have!
Things that Are Unseen
In economics. Reader JohnH disparages attempts to measure r* (and r* plus expected inflation):
Question is, would anyone recognize the neutral rate if it stared them right in the face? And if it could be identified, would it be wearing its real face, a nominal one, or a “natural” one?
March FT-Booth Macroeconomists Survey: GDP, Recession, r*
The FT-Booth Macroeconomist Survey was released today. GDP is slated to grow 2.1% in 2024, q4/q4.
Is the Fed Looking at FAIT? If so, What Would It Imply?
A reader takes issue with my post showing y/y and instantaneous core PCE deflator versus 2% target, noting (correctly) that as of 2020, the Fed’s new monetary strategy incorporates Flexible Average Inflation Targetting (FAIT). While I might have missed it, I don’t recall how one should operationalize FAIT in terms of graphs and rates of reversion to trend lines. The reader gives no guidance, merely a criticism, so I will update what I’ve posted before.
Immigration 2021-23: Supply and Demand Shock
Or, why has the US done so well. Part of it’s immigration. From Goldman Sachs “Upgrading Our GDP and Payrolls Forecasts to Reflect Elevated Immigration (Walker)” released yesterday:
How Close to Target?
Technically, the Fed targets the PCE deflator, but many use the core PCE as a proxy. I show what the data indicate, including the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast as of 3/14 for February.
X-Files, 2024 Edition
On mainstream economists hiding information regarding the BEA’s development of distributional national accounts, reader John Hofer wrote in January of 2024:
“Grocery Prices Have Soared. That’s Spoiling Biden’s Economic Pitch”
That’s the title of an article in Bloomberg today.