With PCE deflators released today:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Business Cycle Indicators – GDP, Private NFP and Other NBER Key Indicators
GDP under Bloomberg consensus of 3.0% at 2.8% (GDPNow nails it); see Jim’s post yesterday. ADP private NFP change at 233K vs. Bloomberg consensus at 110K. Nominal personal income at consensus, consumption at 0.5% m/m vs. 0.4% consensus.
Steven Kamin & Benedict Clements: “The Biden-Harris Macroeconomic Record Is Getting a Bum Rap”
From AEI:
Puerto Rico under Trump
A reminder. Economic indicators, excess fatalities.
GDP Nowcasts/Tracking Down: What Does This Mean?
Never just look the headline number. The “why’s” matter. GDPNow down from 3.3% q/q AR to 2.8%, while GS tracking at 3.0%
Consumer Confidence Surprises on the Upside
108.7 vs. 99.5 (Bloomberg consensus). Is positive economic news percolating into surveys? From the Confidence Board today:
Consumer Price Levels
A comparison:
Gasoline Prices and Brent
From EIA:
McService Job Nation?
Reader Moonmac argues the case that we are in a recession, in a rejoinder my paper “Recession since 2022? A Critique“:
McService Job Nation disagrees even though they’re employed. Gainfully is a different matter.
Trump 2.0 Tariffs and Wisconsin
Be prepared. It doesn’t look good for Wisconsin (just like Trump 1.0 didn’t but this time there isn’t $18 billion on tap to bail out the soybean farmers).