Using today’s state level GDP release, we can assess how highly ranked states like Kansas performed subsequently, as compared to poorly ranked states like California.
Figure 1: Log California real GDP (blue), Kansas (red), and US (black), normalized to 2011Q1=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. [##] denote Rich States, Poor States 2013 Economic Outlook rankings for 2013 (based on 2012 data). Source: BEA, May 2018, NBER, ALEC, and author’s calculations.
State level data for GDP in 2017Q4 were released today. This is an opportunity to update the progress of manufacturing value added (as opposed to employment) in Wisconsin after passage of the Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit (MAC).
Don’t repeat the mistake of Smoot-Hawley tariffs.
There was no recession after Brexit. But a slowdown looks like it’s here now…
Figure 1: Log real GDP for France (blue), UK (bold red), Germany (green), US (bold blackteal), and euro area (tealbold black), all normalized to 2016Q2. Source: OECD, BEA, author’s calculations.
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As I prepped for final lectures in my macro policy course, I generated these graphs.
Nowcasting the US Economy:
Figure 1: Reported GDP (blue bars), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (red), NY Fed nowcast (green), and Macroeconomic Advisers (black), all in billions Ch.2009$ SAAR, on log scale. Source: BEA 2018Q1 advance; Atlanta Fed (4/26), NY Fed (4/27), Macroeconomic Advisers (4/26).
In this post I showed the negative impact on some US allies from tariffs on Chinese exports to the US, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between gross value and value added. Here is another graphical depiction of how tariffs on Chinese exports to the US are — in part — tariffs on US value added…
From WSJ op-ed via AEI:
The second factor [in the slow recovery] is less obvious, but possibly also of great importance…. Congress and [the] President signaled their intentions to introduce major changes in taxes, government spending and regulations–changes that could radically transform the American economy.
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… other government proposals created greater uncertainty and risk for businesses and investors. …
Reader CoRev argues that economic uncertainty indicators such as the Baker, Bloom and Davis based on content analysis of newspaper articles are instances of GIGO (garbage in, garbage out). Here is a plot of another indicator suggesting current elevated uncertainty.
Figure 0: Measure of risk/uncertainty (red). Observation for April is data through 4/23.
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A recent article on the predictive abilities of yield curves (Shrager/Quartz) includes a nifty interactive which allows you to look at yield curves over time. Below, I do a snapshot comparison, across the world.
Figure 1: Ten year-three month term spread (blue bars), as of 9 July 2016. China observation is Five year-three month term spread. Euro ten year rate is for Germany. Source: Economist, data as of April 18.
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