Kansas nonfarm payroll employment rose 4,200 (0.3%) from January to February, and fell 400 (0%) relative to February 2016. In both cases the change was not statistically significant. In contrast, Missouri NFP rose 3,500 (0.1%) over the last month, and 54,000 (1.9%) over the last year.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
How Well Is UK Business Fixed Investment Holding Up in the Brexit Era?
The UK Office of National Statistics released revised figures for GDP and investment today. What can we glean from these numbers?
Guest Contribution: “Mnuchin, Multilateral Meetings, Money Manipulation, and Message Mayhem”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared on March 22nd in Project Syndicate.
CBO Projections of Coverage under the ACA
We all know that the CBO has been under assault over the recent scoring of the AHCA (14 million reduction in coverage by 2018, 26 million by 2026; relatively unchanged by recent amendments), with allegations that their previous projections have been “wrong”. I document in this post that CBO macro projections have been comparable to Blue Chip averages, in terms of accuracy (mean bias, RMSE’s). In terms of the issue at hand, here is a graph depicting various vintages of CBO projections of reduction in uninsured.
EconoFact: “The Agricultural Implications of Mr. Trump’s Policies”
That’s the title of a new EconoFact memo written by me:
Nearly 70 percent of rural votes cast in the 2016 election went to Donald Trump. This phenomenon has been attributed in part to the declining fortunes of farmers. But rather than helping reverse this trend, several of the Trump administration’s policy proposals would negatively affect the fortunes of the agricultural sector by depressing the prices received by farmers, reducing the demand for American agricultural exports, and raising production costs. Moreover, that portion of the agriculture budget aimed at supporting farm prices and incomes is likely to be squeezed to accommodate the increase in defense spending.
Nowcasting with OMB Director Mick Mulvaney
TrumpCare Evaluated
“I am going to take care of everybody. I don’t care if it costs me votes or not. Everybody’s going to be taken care of much better than they’re taken care of now.”
— Donald J. Trump, September 27, 2016
How Financially Open Is the World?
Hiro Ito, who updates our de jure financial openness index (sometimes known as the Chinn-Ito index), has recently calculated GDP-weighted averages of the indices for country categories. The stylized facts regarding the evolution of openness changes, particularly with regard to emerging market economies.
Noted Forecaster Sean Spicer on CBO Projections
From The Hill:
If you’re looking at the CBO for accuracy, you’re looking in the wrong place,” White House press secretary Sean Spicer said Wednesday.
Wisconsin Benchmarked Employment through January: Flat since April
Today, the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development released establishment data benchmarked to data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages through September of 2016. Briefly, Wisconsin employment continues to lag the Nation, and its neighbor Minnesota.