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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Employment and GDP Growth
Yesterday’s NYT noted “U.S. Growth and Employment Data Tell Different Stories”:
Measured by traditional yardsticks for growth, like gross domestic product, the American economy definitely looks weak. View it through the prism of hiring and employment, however, and the economy seems surprisingly strong.
IMF: “Subdued Demand, Diminished Prospects”
From today’s updated World Economic Outlook update:
Risks to the global outlook remain tilted to the downside and relate to ongoing adjustments in the global economy: a generalized slowdown in emerging market economies, China’s rebalancing, lower commodity prices, and the gradual exit from extraordinarily accommodative monetary conditions in the United States. If these key challenges are not successfully managed, global growth could be derailed.
Are We in a Recession Now?
I’m not going to “pull an Ed Lazear” and declare “no”. But the current versions of indicators are not very supportive of a “yes” answer.
Spreads and Recession Watch
Since we’re talking recession [0], it’s of interest to see what market indicators are saying, for the US and for the world. First, the term spread for the US:
The Next Global Recession: Made in China?
The portents from China are not good. There are ominously titled news articles aplenty; the WSJ asked in August if a global recession is brewing in China. Wonkblog asks How China could trigger a global crisis:
When China sneezes, the rest of the world might not catch a cold, but it does feel bad for a couple of days. The question, though, is whether China is sicker than it seems and how contagious that would be for the global economy.
Speaker Ryan Assesses Fiscal and Monetary Policy Efficacy
From The Hill:
Instead of crediting Obama for any of the economic gains that have occurred in the last seven years, Ryan argued that the Fed’s policies pushed the recovery. He added that the central bank’s controversial efforts to drive down borrowing costs may have driven growth, but the benefits failed to spread to everyone.
Republican Presidential Front-Runner Trump on Trade Policy
From the NYT:
Donald J. Trump said he would favor a 45 percent tariff on Chinese exports to the United States, proposing the idea during a wide-ranging meeting with members of the editorial board of The New York Times.
What’s the CNY Doing?
As the CNY depreciates, just a quick note for perspective.
Politico on the 2016 Economic Outlook
Provocatively titled “Could the Economy Tank in 2016?”: