Why one shouldn’t obsess on just one data set. Read on only if you don’t believe in a conspiracy so vast…
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The RMB in the SDR: What Does It Mean for RMB Internationalization?
The IMF staff has now determined the Renminbi should be included in the IMF’s unit of account, the Special Drawing Right (SDR). Reviews of the decision are covered here and here. But as the articles note, there is a long ways to go before the RMB is internationalized so as to rival the dollar or euro.
A Year for Records: Temperatures, Acres Burned
Read on, only if you believe in considering data.
Guest Contribution: “Games Countries Play”
Today we have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. This post is an extended version of a column that appeared in Project Syndicate.
Links: Housing Bubbles, Trilemma, Policy Timing Uncertainty
Food for thought over the long weekend.
Wisconsin Private Employment: “highest one-month jump since 1992”
That’s the headline on this afternoon’s release from the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development. While completely accurate, the summary leaves a just a little context out…
Closing the Output Gap
…very slowly
The Wisconsin Economy since the Last Peak
Compared against Minnesota, Kansas, California, and the Nation
Potential GDP, Again
There are various ways of estimating potential output. I typically refer to the CBO’s estimates, which are basically a production function approach (use trend labor and capital stock, and total factor productivity growth, to infer potential output). However, An alternative is to examine price pressures to infer potential output, as in Ball and Mankiw (JEP, 2002).
“…inflation expectations can change quickly”
One of the arguments for acting sooner rather than later on monetary policy is that if the slack disappears, inflationary expectations will surge. That’s represented in this quote from reader Peak Trader’s comment. While I don’t rule out this possibility, it seems reasonable to me to empirically assess whether this is true for the United States over the past thirty years.