Overall, for HS graduates:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Jet Fuel Prices Up
Then, when next you fly; or ship something high value from abroad. From EIA (thru 10/9):
Insurance for AI Hyperscaler Debt, et al.
From FT yesterday:
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Wall Street Expectations for Treasury Yields: Higher for Longer
From the October WSJ survey:
Nowcasts and WEO, WSJ Forecasts
Recent releases:
The Term Spread and the Case of the Missing 2024 Recession
The abstract of a new paper coauthored with Laurent Ferrara, “Missing Recessions: Revisiting the Term Spread’s Predictive Power”:
Business Cycle Indicators: Industrial Production Up, Retail Sales Flattish
and Monthly GDP for August, manufacturing production. First, NBER BCDC indicators:
The Cost of Living and Wages
Here are several price indicators for consumers:
Inflation Upside Surprise
September CPI registered upside surprise:
Steve Kamin: Tales from the Dollar-Yield Curve Nexus
From Steve Kamin: