As of today, GDP nowcasts split, but final sales to private domestic purchasers (coined “Core GDP” by Furman) consensus is deceleration.
Nowcasts of GDP and “Core GDP”
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Signs of a Slowing Russian Economy: CBR Drops Rate 200 bp
Three weeks ago, Bofit remarks “Concerns emerge over Russia’s slowing growth”:
What Fed Funds Rate Does Trump Want?
Compared to Taylor rule, according the to the Atlanta Fed Taylor rule utility.
Guest Contribution: “Global shocks, institutional development, and trade restrictions: What can we learn from crises and recoveries between 1990 and 2022?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes). This post is based on the paper of the same title (Aizenman, Ito, Park, Saadaoui, and Uddin, 2025).
(Fed) Credibility Lost? Bordo-Siklos 5 Year
We see reversion in the Bordo-Siklos measure of inflation credibility back toward pre-Trump 2.0 levels. However, we’ll see if this is recovery is durable in the wake of Trump’s attacks on Fed independence (including a historic non-ceremonial visit by a sitting President).
How Resilient Is the Consumer, Really?
I see this constantly remarked upon, so I wanted to check the data.
The Stock Market and “The Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations”
Trump announces tariffs of “only” 15% on Japanese imported goods, and the market jumps.
LA under Occupation: Macro Indicators for California
On June 7, President Trump federalized the California National Guard and deployed troops to LA. This followed instances of aggressively conducted ICE raids against various establishments. Economic activity declined in both LA and rural areas engaged in agriculture.
GAO: “Automatic supports are most effective when they are timely, temporary, targeted, and predictable”
I think we’ll need these sooner than you think. But legislation has just been passed to disable these supports.
Guess the Time Series
Google Trends accessed today: