Daily data from Baker, Bloom and Davis:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
How Much Will We Lose Lending to Argentina?
The $20 billion swap announced by Bessent (not on US Treasury website as far as I can tell) is funded out of the Exchange Stabilization Fund. As far as I can tell, there’s no conditionality. This transaction is qualitatively different from Fed swap lines with for instand ECB and BoE wherein the Fed had access to their currencies.
FX and Gold Reserves in Q2
COFER data is out for Q2. With estimated gold held by the central banks, we have this picture of reserve composition.
WSJ Survey: Below Trend Growth
Out today:
Why a Missed Release Is Sometimes Problematic
When the economy is growing in a steady manner, a missed release is not a problem. But when the economy is on a potential tipping point, the preliminary release and revisions take on a heighted importance. Example: September 2008 net job gains:
Flying Blind, Graphically Illustrated
Here’re key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, with indications of measures already missed (purple squares) and will be missed in a 34 day shutdown (and likely delayed even if a shorter shutdown occurs) (purple dashed squares).
On Immigration Policies and the Ag Sector
An assessment of how current Administration polices regarding immigration and removals are affecting the agricultural sector (October 2):
Why I Think the Administration Would Be Happy to Let the October Employment Release Slip
Effective September 30th, some 105000 Federal workers who had signed up for the Deferred Resignation Program will be officially unemployed. The usual reference (correction per Ben Zipperer) period for counting employment, either in the CES or the CPS, is in the week including the 12th of the month — that is, this week; <I>the week for interviewing is the week including the 19th</I> (correction). If you think there’s only going to be a mild increase in private employment in October, coming after that in September (-17K from ADP, -77 to BLS from my nowcast), then the 100K drop will look meaningfully “bad”.
EJ Antoni: Back to Smearing Data Sources
Memo from the Midwest: Thanks, Drumpf!
November futures for soybeans collapse upon Trump’s announcement: