Graph for data through 5/30 for Baker, Bloom and Davis index.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
GDP and “Core GDP” Nowcasts
Where “core” GDP (per Furman) is final sales to private domestic purchasers.
Trump Predicts at Least 3% Growth
At least it’s mercifully less than the 4% that he promised last time (but 9% is more than last time)
Despite Upward Revisions, Sentiment Still Looks Pretty Poor
Final May figures for Michigan survey are out. As noted in the release, final figures are more positive with the inclusion of post-pause responses. Here’s the picture of confidence and sentiment, updated.
Business Cycle Indicators as Reported at May’s End
Consumption level is revised downward, while personal income ex transfers continues to rise. Manufacturing and trade sales rise in March. First is a picture of key variables followed by the NBER’s BCDC:
Stephen Moore Critiques the CBO
Mr. Moore continues his reign of (economic) errors, now tackling the CBO’s (and JCT’s) record on predictions, in “Save us from the CBO”
What Does a Rising Long Term US Government Yield Mean?
I was thinking about this, as people were remarking on how the 30 year bond was rising.
Economic Activity: GDP, GDO, GDP+, Final Sales
As of 2nd release for 2025Q1.
Weekly Indicators of GDP Growth
The Lewis-Mertens-Stock/NY Fed measure for data through 5/24 is down to 1.88%, down from 2.79% on the week of Trump’s inauguration, down from peak of 3.07%, recording data before “Liberation Day”.
Furniture Prices Up, Up and Away in April
Can’t wait to see May data.