Headline from CNN.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
New Paper: No, We Haven’t Been in a Recession since 2022
Downloadable here.
Nonsensical Graphs that People Post
Item 1:
Why So Glum? Structural Break in Michigan Sentiment?
Ryan Cummings and Ernie Tedeschi have a very interesting article in BriefingBook today which casts new light on the disjuncture between measured sentiment and conventional macroeconomic indicators. Cummings and Tedeschi document how the move to online sampling has altered the characteristics of the University of Michigan Economic Sentiment series.
Nick Lardy on China’s Rise and Economic Conflict with the US
This Thursday 4:30 CT at UW:
CatholicVote: “Two economists reported that after adjusting government statistics to more accurately measure inflation, it became clear that the country has been in a recession for the past two years under the Biden-Harris administration”
That’s the title of this article.
Has GDP Growth Been Faster under Biden vs. than under Trump? Answer: Yes
I keep on hearing people like House Speaker Mike Johnson saying how growth under Trump was the fastest. Well, just comparing against the last three and a half years, I wonder how this can be true. Using the latest available BEA data:
Federal Interest Payments: To the Public vs. To the Rest-of-Federal Government
Ode to an EJ Antoni graph (apologies to Keats). Total interest payments have risen substantially, and this shows up in a scary picture:
The Gutting of the US Dollar, According to Vladimir Putin
From EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge channel Vladimir Putin (Feb 2024):
America’s political establishment has less respect for the U.S. dollar than our foreign adversaries.
That was made clear when Tucker Carlson recently interviewed the Russian strongman President Vladimir Putin, who clearly articulated how the uniparty in Washington is destroying America’s greatest strategic and economic asset — her currency.
Dollar Demise Predicted
Joe Biden is dethroning King Dollar in real time. The US dollar’s financial dominance is under siege from a uniquely bad combination of foreign and domestic policies, and Americans should be deeply concerned by the fallout if the dollar loses its 80-year reign as the world’s reserve currency.