The conventionally used CPI-U is in the middle of the pack.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Did Wisconsin Manufacturing Thrive during Trump Trade War 1.0?
A retrospective:
Central Bank of Russia Telegram Account: “Everything will be fine.”
I’m taking the WSJ’s word for it, from the article “Russia’s War Economy Shows New Cracks After the Ruble Plunges”.
Three Measures of Output
GDP, GDO, GDP+:
Average Wages (Still) Rising Faster than Inflation
A comparison between CPI, chained CPI, PCE price index, and HICP deflation:
All That Is Old Is New Again: Protection for Automobiles and Light Trucks
Forty years ago, I was working for Bob Crandall as an RA at Brookings, on how much the voluntary export restraints (VERs) added to the costs of a typical Japanese imported car. He found that number to be about $820 (a Datsun Stanza was about $6700 in 1981), and a comparable domestically produced car by about $370 (since the VER puts up a wall that allows domestic producers to raise prices). Today, according to Wells Fargo, the 25% tariffs would result in a vehicle assembled in Mexico or Canada to go up in price by $8000-$10000, while the average over all cars using imported parts will go up about $2100 (average car price in March 2024 is about $47000; a Ford F150 STX is about $42000).
The Ruble under Pressure
From Politico:
The ruble tumbled on Wednesday to its lowest level in over two years, as a mix of low oil prices, new sanctions against Russian businesses and burgeoning government spending on its war effort put ever-greater strain on the Russian economy.
The central bank reacted by suspending currency purchases for the rest of this year. That will restrict the supply of rubles and should support the exchange rate accordingly.
Trump 25% Tariffs: Wisconsinites “to get it good and hard”?
President-elect Trump has mentioned a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada. Time to think about how this would affect Wisconsin, a state that voted for Mr. Trump.
Six Measures of Core Instantaneous Inflation
With the core PCE deflator, we have these measures of what’s happening to core.
Business Cycle Indicators for Biden’s Economy in October
One of the last snapshots of the Biden economy show real consumption and personal income rising, with consumption rising 0.6% (vs. consensus of 0.3%), and faster than inflation. Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee.