Goldman Sachs has reduced the probability of recession in the next 12 months to 30%, from 35%, and earlier 45% (Reuters). It’s important to note that these projections are conditional on the path of future policies — which in these times are less clear than ever.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Economic Implications of “a narcissistic populist presidency”
That’s Cliff Winston’s assessment here at LSEblog:
P. Joyce: “Why Protecting the Congressional Budget Office Should Matter to the Congress, and to the Country”
From an article by Philip Joyce (UMD):
Weekly Economic Index, for Data Released through 6/7
Lewis, Mertens & Stock WEI vs Baumeister, Leiva-Leon & Sims WECI:
[Repost] If You Thought Grocery Prices Were High, Wait for Mass Deportation
Eerie silence hangs over Central Coast farm fields in wake of ICE raids
[Originally posted in December 16, 2024] Wages for farm workers and food processing will likely rise, if the past is any guide.
Non-Economic Public Service Announcement
If you are a person of color, I suggest carrying your US passport at all times, given recent detentions of US citizens. I certainly am. After all, “mistakes” occur.
Federal Budget Deficit through May
It’s not smaller than this point in 2024:
Macroeconomic Implications of Premature Escalation in LA
ICE raids are concentrated in blue states, including CA, NY. These states account for about 22% of national GDP, at nominal prices (CA 14%, NY 8%; slightly larger if using real GDP):
In Case You Thought Policy Uncertainty Had Declined
Remember, we’ve got tariff *pauses* (pl.), OBBB, debt ceiling limit, etc. Do you expect the folks in the present administration to have a handle on things?
Michaillat-Saez Recession Indicator
As noted in this post, the indicator detected a recession in March 2024. It stayed above the threshold thereafter, so the implication is that we are currently the same recession. However, since then, the indicator has decreased substantially, so the recession probability is low.