Nominal and real exports are down.
How’s That Trade War Going for Wisconsin?
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, 5 May 2026
From EIA today. Look not only at gasoline, but also diesel
Naval Deployment As of 5/4 … to What End?
From USNI:
Four Measures of Aggregate Economic Activity
Output is still rising smartly according to one index (2.1% m/m annualized):
Consumer Vibes Two Months into the War
Gallup and U.Michigan way down, Conference Board trending sideways.
GDP, Personal Income and other Business Cycle Indicators as of May Day
GDP grows 2% SAAR in the Q1 advance release (see Jim’s discussion here). Real personal income ex-transfers is flat.
The Last Month’s June Brent and Kalshi Hormuz Re-opening Odds
As of 2pm CT today:
Brent Front Month above $111
Gas at all time high, according to Gasbuddy, as of today:
Hormuz Re-opening Odds and Brent June Futures
From data 10 min ago:
Where Will Brent Futures Open Today?
My guess, using Kalshi and EPU, is for $111 yesterday (assuming EPU is the same as yesterday):