From Cui, NBC:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Dollar Dominance No More?
Steve Kamin in the FT, Goodman in the NYT, Krugman on substack, FT Editorial Board write on how Trump policy erraticism on erosion of the dollar as a safe asset/exorbitant privilege. Kamin deploys regressions to support his conclusions:
WSJ Survey of Economists – April 2025
The GDP outlook is down markedly. I was insufficiently pessimistic (relative to WSJ survey respondents) regarding the GDP outlook.
What a Difference Two Weeks Makes: NABE Economists on the “Liberation Day” Effect
From NABE two days ago, responses pre- and post-“Liberation Day”:
Expectations Continue to Fall Off a Cliff
NY Fed future financial situation “better off” revised up, but continues decline.
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Conference: “Global Shocks, Macroeconomic Spillovers and Geopolitical Risks: Policy Challenges” [updated with links]
Here today [update — links to papers and slides]
Policy Uncertainty Remains High Despite Electronics Tariff Respite
Surprise!
Is the Michigan Economic Sentiment Index at Recession Levels? Answer: Yes!
The current reading of 50.8 is below the 73.4 average reading over NBER peak-to-trough recessions dates (1990M01-2025M03):
Economic Policy Uncertainty Hits Record High
Even if likely to be revised, it’s still remarkable. VIX down as high yield credit spread rises.
Trump Blinks (For Now)
From Bloomberg:
President Donald Trump’s administration exempted smartphones, computers and other electronics from its so-called reciprocal tariffs, representing a major reprieve for global technology manufacturers including Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. even if it proves a temporary one.
The exclusions, published late Friday by US Customs and Border Protection, narrow the scope of the levies by excluding the products from Trump’s 125% China tariff and his baseline 10% global tariff on nearly all other countries.
The exclusions apply to smartphones, laptop computers, hard drives and computer processors and memory chips. Those popular consumer electronics items generally aren’t made in the US.