Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

GS: From 25% Probability to Recession Call?

From Goldman Sachs, Sunday evening:

We are lowering our 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raising our 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45% following a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed. …

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