The Conference Board today:
Conference Board: Economic Confidence Up (a Little)
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Gerard Baker: “If Trump’s Tariffs Are So Bad, Where’s the Recession?”
That question was posed in the WSJ, and poses three possible answers:
What Happens If IEEPA Tariffs Are Rule Illegal?
Oral arguments before the appellate court take place this week. Suppose the tariffs invoked under IEEPA are struck down, then that decision would likely be appealed to the Supreme Court (eventually). From CNBC:
Stay Tuned: World Trade for June
Wegovy ™ for Me, but Not for Thee (cont’d)
The just-announced trade “deal” (what’s the enforcement mechanism?) apparently covers pharmaceuticals. Where do we get most of our pharma (by value)? From Joey Politano, the answer:
TACO, Again! (China Edition)
Not that I’m complaining. Continue reading
US Real Exports Flatlining Despite Rising RoW GDP, Depreciated Dollar
What else did you expect?
Betting on 2.5%
Kalshi today. 2.4% from GDPNow and the Bloomberg consensus.
Where Is the Administration’s Economic Forecast? A Forensic Analysis
It’s usually in the Mid-Session Review, which comes out in July. But no table of forecasts is included this year (you can check–I did!). Which begs the question — how did they estimate the revenues going forward if they didn’t have GDP projections?
Scary Picture?
Some macro series. One observation does not make a trend – but still…