From EIA:
Gasoline Prices and Brent
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
McService Job Nation?
Reader Moonmac argues the case that we are in a recession, in a rejoinder my paper “Recession since 2022? A Critique“:
McService Job Nation disagrees even though they’re employed. Gainfully is a different matter.
Trump 2.0 Tariffs and Wisconsin
Be prepared. It doesn’t look good for Wisconsin (just like Trump 1.0 didn’t but this time there isn’t $18 billion on tap to bail out the soybean farmers).
Revised Paper: No, We Haven’t Been in a Recession since 2022
EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge argue we have been deceived by incorrect deflators. Rebuttal, showing the irreproducibility of their results, and non-deflator sensitive indicators, downloadable here, with new data.
Guest Contribution: “The Economics Nobel Prize and Settler Mortality”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate and the Korea Herald.
If the Official Inflation Rate Is Correct, the Real Policy Rate In Russia Is Now 12.4%
The Central Bank of Russia today raised the policy rate from 19% to 21%.
September Coincident Indexes
Three month growth rate 2.7% ann’d, 3 month diffusion index at 48.
Guest Contribution: “Immigration and US Shelter Prices: The Role of Geographical and Immigrant Heterogeneity”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by James Cabral (University of Toronto) and Walter Steingress (University of Wisconsin). The views expressed are solely those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the institutions they are associated with.
The Leading Economic Index, The Term Spread, and Historical Correlations
I’ve updated the “regression camp” membership list. Assuming no recession shows up (hear Cam Harvey talk about the issue), what can we take from the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index returning to recession territory (it’s spent much of the last 18 months there):
What Kind of Macro Model is the Heritage Foundation Using?
From Heritage: