While VIX is elevated:
The Inversion Continues
2 Replies
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Nowcasted Consumption Falls to Stall Speed
A week ago, Atlanta Fed’s nowcast of consumption was 2.2% q/q annualized; now it’s zero.
Policy Uncertainty
High frequency through 3/2:
Have Nowcasts and Forecasts Ever Dropped so Quickly When Not about to Go into a Recession?
Asking for a friend. From Atlanta Fed today:
Reinversion Continues
End of week spreads:
Recession Outlook Darkening
From betting markets, economists:
Instantaneous Inflation Rising
Year-on-Year looks better.
Off a Cliff
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee key indicators. Consumption (preliminary) falls markedly.
Egg Prices Keep on Rising
From Trading Economics today:
Hello ‘nversion, My Old Friend…[updated]
As of today’s close, the constant maturity 10yr-3mo spread is … -0.6% (as of 2/26 close):