With the personal income for August, we have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC). Personal income ex-current transfers and employment are more heavily weighted than other indicators.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Wisconsin Hammered by Tariffs?
Yes, if the Philadelphia Fed Early Benchmark is closer to right.
The Safety of the Nation Depends on … Upholstered Furniture and Bathroom Vanities
The President invokes Section 232 for national security tariffs. From NYT:
Awaiting August Consumption and Personal Income
Nonfarm payroll employment, personal income essentially flat, civilian employment down, since 2025M04 (“Liberation Day” month).
EJ Antoni Channels “The [1929 UK] Treasury View”
$20 bn Credit Line to Argentina?
Why? Is Argentina central to US national security or economic interests?
Miran on r*
Yesterday, in a speech before the Economic Club of New York, Fed Governor Stephen Miran, on leave from the White House CEA, spoke on “Nonmonetary Forces and Appropriate Monetary Policy.” I was confused.
Guest Contribution: “FAIT, Shortfalls, and the Federal Reserve’s Strategy Review”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
The Availability of Quarterly GDP Data for the US: Memo to EJ Antoni
Referring to Dr. Antoni’s definition of recessions using quarterly data, here are the GDP data series for the US I am aware of.
Why Friends Don’t Let Friends Define Recessions as Two Consecutive Quarters of Negative GDP Growth
That’s exactly what EJ Antoni did in “Biden’s Recession” (August 1, 2022):