EJ Antoni (Heritage) is dubious about GDPNow’s (and other nowcasts) regarding Q3 growth. From X aka Twitter today:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Eric Hovde: In Recession (and Recession Forecast from Dec 2023) [updated]
Video today.
Wisconsin Economic Sit-Rep
DWD released employment numbers for September today.
Has American Economic Output Been in Decline since 2022?
This is the premise of a new paper by Peter St. Onge and EJ Antoni. I have been trying to find a deflator that can yield that the result that US GDP in 2024Q2 is 2.5% below 2019Q1 levels. Based on their discussion in their paper, as well as a video by Dr. St. Onge, I have tried calculating a consumption deflator that is based on house prices and mortgage rates, using the Big Mac price (which Dr. St. Onge lauds in his video as an alternative to official statistics or PWT data), and fast food prices (specifically, the food away from home/limited services restaurants component of the CPI).
Big Mac Nation and Recession since 2022
In a recent paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4.
Mid-October Reading on Business Cycle Indicators – NBER BCDC and Alternatives
Industrial and manufacturing production below consensus (-0.3% m/m vs -0.1%, -0.4% vs -0.1%, respectively), while retail sales and core retail sales above consensus (+0.4% m/m vs +0.3%, +0.5% vs +0.1%, respectively). Here’s the resulting two pictures, first one for those indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, and the second one alternatives.
Fed Inflation Credibility Measured
Has the Fed lost credibility, as some people have argued (e.g., EJ Antoni)?
WSJ October Survey: GDP On the Rise
Only one forecaster projects two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
Gasoline and Oil Prices
As of Mid October for Gasoline:
September Real Median Household Income Estimated
Above Pre-Covid peak. From Motio Research: