November monthly GDP is reported by S&P Global Market Insights, up 0.2 ppts, 2.6% annualized. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Deviation of Instantaneous Inflation from Target
For CPI, CPI core, PCE deflator, PCE core deflator:
Gasoline Prices thru 1/3 (updated – nominal and real)
From GasBuddy:
Foreign Term Spread Augmented Recession Model Prediction
Ahmed and Chinn (2023), coauthored with Rashad Ahmed, accepted at JMCB. The US and Foreign 10yr-3mo inversion remain deep (although not as deep as in March when last I posted).
FX Turnover through 2022
Doing some research on international currencies, I reviewed FX turnover data from the BIS, through April 2022. Dollar dominated, two months after the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The Year in Review, 2023: Deep State @ BLS, Russia’s Expanded Invasion No Big Deal (to the World Economy), and Wisconsin’s Senator Theoden
Slightly behind schedule, my year reviewed. Last year’s recap was entitled “Year in Review, 2022: Vast Data Conspiracy by BEA, “Drill, baby, drill!”, and the Ills of Diversity” This year, with rational policymaking returning, it’s time to keep on trying to erase stupidity.
Wisconsin Economic Indicators Diverge
The labor market looks stronger than GDP.
Last GDPNow of the Year
And other forecasts and nowcasts:
Why I Don’t Cheer the Soft Landing (Yet)
In early 2001 (April or May) I was on staff at CEA, and recall a conversation where I was assured there’d be no recession, given the latest data available. So, with all the data I’ve recapped, remember, the data will be revised (and GDP in particular will be revised, over and over again).
PCE Inflation: Instantaneous below Target
Year-on-Year PCE inflation (3.2% in November) is a standard; here’s instantaneous headline and core for comparison (and trimmed mean y/y through October):