Forecast finalized in November (roughly same time as CBO’s projections, released in February).
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
And So It Begins (Social Security edition)
At least for today. From CNN:
Real Household Net Worth (from Flow of Funds)
Rising in 2023Q4:
“People … have not faced this kind of uncertainty since the 1930s”
That’s from ZeroHedge. Contra, here are some data.
Monetary Policy Rates around the World
Some pictures for Econ 442, monetary policy module.
Wisconsin Employment Outperforming DoR November Forecast
As the nation outperforms, so too does Wisconsin. Employment exceeds the DoR November forecast.
Math Is Hard!
Steven Kopits writes:
On the other hand, interest payments have risen from 9.5% of GDP in 2020 to 13.6% of GDP in 2023. That is a whopping 4% of GDP in just increased interest payments. Further, as the incumbent debt is rolling off and has to be refinanced, interest payments will continue to rise, and fall with considerable delay even when inflation and interest rates return to lower levels.
Estimates of r*
Who thinks it’s 4% or above?
Why I Don’t Put Too Much Weight on the State Level Household Survey Employment Series
Just a picture:
Wisconsin Employment in January
January employment numbers, incorporating annual revisions, are out for Wisconsin. Here’s a picture of some indicators.