Recapping my analyses of his budgetary and macroeconomic views, including supply side, interest and inflation rates, and command of economic history.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Guest Contribution: Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy in the U.S. and Inequality
Today, we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Olivier Coibion (UT Austin) [interviewed here by Prakash Loungani], Yuriy Gorodnichenko (UC Berkeley), Lorenz Kueng (Northwestern) and John Silvia (Wells Fargo); it is based on IMF Working Paper No. 199
Non-Government GDP and Employment: Revisiting Lazear’s Comparative Analyses
Reader Peter Schaeffer writes in comments to my rebuttal to Ed Lazear that demonstrates that ex-defense GDP growth is higher under the Obama administration than during the comparable period of the G.W. Bush administration:
Guest Contribution: “The Making of America’s Imbalances”
Today we are fortunate to have a Paul Wachtel (NYU) and Moritz Schularick (Free University of Berlin) as guest contributors. This article is based upon their paper of the same title.
Governor Romney Recalibrates Employment Forecasts
Last May, Governor Romney stated that in a typical recovery, monthly employment increases should be about 500,000 per month [1]. The sheer implausibility of that statement (assessed in this post) has induced him to reduce his estimate (without explanation of the change) to 250,000 per month. [2]. In Figure 1, I provide a plot of the implied path, as well as that from his May statement (which made me laugh for days!). In other words, his forecast has moved from clearly “Heritage Foundation space” to something that seems a bit less implausible, even if not clearly motivated by a specific model
Adventures in (Wisconsin) Data Interpretation: Selective Sample Choice and Seasonal Nonadjustment Edition
In comments on my post on the July Employment Release, reader Bruce Hall (August 3, 12:50PM) writes:
But, oddly, [Wisconsin] education and government employment increased in Wisconsin by more than 13,000 during the Jan-Jun period under uber-neo-con-anti-government Gov. Walker.
The July Employment Situation
Today, BLS released data for July. Nonfarm payroll employment growth of 165,000 exceeded expectations of 100,000 (Bloomberg). However, overall, employment indicators continue to rise only slowly.
Kevin “Dow 36,000” Hassett et al. Critique the Tax Policy Center Study
From Boston.com:
On a conference call with reporters, Romney advisers ripped the study — conducted by the Tax Policy Center, a joint venture of the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute — as “biased” and “a joke.”
“Slow Recovery or Failed Agenda?”
That’s the question posed in the title of yesterday’s op-ed by Ed Lazear, and it’s an excellent question. Looking at the statistics, 13 quarters after the President’s inauguration, non-defense GDP is only 4% higher (in log terms) than when he came into office.
We Can Emulate the UK (GDP-wise)!
Or, still no expansionary fiscal contraction in the UK (surprise!)
The UK experiment [0] continues, apparently not too successfully, according to statistics from the UK Office of National Statistics. One picture suffices.