By David Papell
Today, we’re fortunate to have <a
href=”http://www.uh.edu/~dpapell/”>David Papell, Professor of Economics at
the University of Houston, as a Guest
Contributor.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Learning about Long Term Unemployment (I)
On Thursday, we brought together an impressive array of scholars to discuss the causes and consequences of, and policy responses to, long term unemployment, including Prakash Loungani, Advisor in the IMF’s Research Department, Kenneth Scheve, Professor of Political Science at Yale, Phillip Swagel, Professor of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, and a former Assistant Secretary of Treasury for Economic Policy, Rob Valletta, Research Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Dan Aaronson, Director of Microeconomic Research at the Chicago Fed, and Kenneth Troske, Professor of Economics from the University of Kentucky. And that was in addition to the researchers from the University of Wisconsin-Madison (more on them below). For me, this was a tremendous learning experience. But like all good conferences, by the end I understood that I knew less than I thought I knew about long term unemployment. In today’s post, I will discuss the presentations and papers by Prakash Loungani and Rob Valletta; in the next post, I’ll cover the findings of Ken Scheve and Phillip Swagel and Ken Troske.
UW Conference on Long term unemployment in industrial countries
This Thursday, the La Follette School and the UW Center for World Affairs and the Global Economy is holding a conference on “Long term unemployment in industrial countries: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses”. In a timely report, the OECD last week released Persistence of High Unemployment: What Risks? What Policies?. From the report:
A Divergence of Opinion
As highlighted in Figure 1, estimates of GDP regarding 2011Q1 growth differ widely.
Trilemma Indices Updated
Chinese Inflation and the Impact on the US Economy
The portents from China, on the price front, are ominous. Inflation is rising, as shown in Figure 1:
Heritage Breaks Internet Silence on Its Ryan Plan Simulations (w/o a single number!)
Or, a “Forensic Analysis for the Heritage CDA results”
The Heritage Foundation Center for Data Analysis (CDA) simulation of the Ryan plan, on behalf of the House Committee, has come in for some criticism. Commentary has been provided by Paul Krugman, and perhaps most comprehensively by Macroeconomic Advisers. (My comments are here: [1] [2] [3]). Yesterday, the Heritage Foundation CDA’s director, William Beach, posted a rebuttal to Krugman’s critique. While Big Picture posted an excellent rejoinder,
I want to deal with one particular aspect of Mr. Beach’s open letter. Consider this excerpt.
Dispatches (XIII): Gov. Walker: “It doesn’t save any [money]”
That is Governor Walker’s answer to the question of how much money rescinding collective bargaining for public unions saves the state government. From the Capital Times:
More on the Characteristics of the Heritage Foundation CDA Analysis of the Ryan Plan
Dispatches (XII): Wisconsin Governor Walker Threatens Layoffs (Again!)
From WisPolitics today:
Gov. Scott Walker says he may have to again consider laying off state employees if his collective bargaining law remains tied up in the courts for much more than the next week or two.