The report is here [pdf] (link fixed 1:50pm Pacific), and the Director’s blog post is here.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Chinese Trade Elasticities, Updated
The price and income elasticities of Chinese trade flows are key parameters in the debate regarding the importance of Renminbi revaluation in achieving rebalancing. [0][1] I was hoping to update my estimates to incorporate data spanning the recent crisis, but Shaghil Ahmed at the Fed beat me to the punch with a new working paper that includes data spanning the recent downturn in Chinese trade flows. From Are Chinese Exports Sensitive to Changes in the Exchange Rate?
Consumption Prospects and Rebalancing
In several previous posts, I’ve emphasized the importance of future US consumption behavior in determining whether the global imbalances shrink, or revert to their pre-crisis configuration. [0] [1] [2] An IMF SPN by Jaewoo Lee, Pau Rabanal, and Damiano Sandri weighs in on the question of consumption. From the executive summary:
Policies for Increasing Economic Growth and Employment
From the CBO’s report “Policies for Increasing Economic Growth and Employment in 2010 and 2011” released Jan 14, is an assessment of the boost to GDP and employment from various policies. Proper consideration of these measures are critical given the prospects for the output gap [0] and employment growth [1].
The January WSJ Survey: Recovery and Interest Rates
The WSJ survey for January is out. Growth is predicted to be fairly rapid, but hardly torrid, in 2010, with q4/q4 mean estimate at 3.0%. Here’s the mean forecast of the log level of GDP, and the trimmed high and low forecasts.
What Are Current Small Business Credit Conditions, Really?
Casey Mulligan titles a post Credit Study by the Federal Reserve Says No Crunch, citing a Macroblog post. But he neglects to mention that the survey is “A small business snapshot from the Southeast”. In contrast, a nation-wide NFIB survey summarizes conditions thusly:
Assessing Stimulus Measures: Statistical and Economic Significance
The CEA has updated its estimates of the impact of the stimulus plan on output. As I observed in my earlier post on assessing the results on 2009Q3 impact, one could use either a model approach (using multipliers, which can be derived from either neo-Classical synthesis, New Classical, New Keynesian models [0] [1]) or examine the actual versus some counterfactual based upon historical correlations (what CEA calls the “projection approach”).
Guest Contribution: Bernanke on the Taylor Rule
By David Papell
Today, we’re fortunate to have David Papell, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston, as a Guest Contributor.
Marsh and Pfleiderer on the Financial Crisis
From “Analysis of the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis”, by Terry Marsh and Paul Pfleiderer:
In this Preface, we offer some analysis of the 2008-2009 financial crisis and its implications for financial industry reform and research. We primarily focus on issues relating to transparency and the measurement of risk and how these are affected by management incentives that are often misaligned with the incentives of those who are exposed in various ways to the risk being measured. In the aftermath of the crisis many have called for increased transparency; we suggest that while transparency is no doubt a desirable goal in many ways, enhancing it could prove to be quite difficult.
Some Aspects of the Employment Report
The net job loss in the December nonfarm payroll (NFP) is unwelcome news, but given the (upward) revision in the November figure, one shouldn’t think of this number as fixed. Figure 1 shows various employment series.