From FT yesterday:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Iraq rationales:
Trade, Exchange Rates and Pass Through
Some thoughts on what to make of the trade and export/import price releases.
CBO on the Outlook, Post-Stimulus
The CBO released new forecasts [pdf] yesterday. No recession, but…
International Aspects of Tax Policy in the 2008 Economic Report of the President
The tax policy chapter of the ERP is quite interesting, in part because I have a sense of deja vu [1], [2] when reading the cross-country/international sections.
International Economics in the 2008 Economic Report of the President
Ignore the newspaper reports about the short term forecasts; that’s old news, since these White House forecasts were made in November (and hence, it’s not fair to compare these forecasts to current forecasts, as has been done in some journalistic accounts). And ignore the chapter on housing markets — there’s not going to be any discussion of how inadequate regulatory oversight (to put it mildly) might have contributed to this debacle. The interesting stuff is in the discussion — or lack of discussion — of certain international economics issues (no Renminbi!).
Economic Report of the President, 2008 [large pdf!]
Expenditure Switching or Expenditure Reduction Again: How Adjustment Is Occuring
The latest GDP release suggests trade balance adjustment is proceeding. Some of the adjustment is being driven by changes in the dollar’s value. But I think a lot seems to be coming from the reduction in consumption and income growth.
How to balance the Federal budget, Bush style, Redux
A year ago, I observed that the Bush Administration was projecting a balanced budget eventually, by assuming away expenditures. We’re in for a replay.
Thinking about Monetary Policy Efficacy: Back to the Textbooks
As the Fed drops interest rates, I’ve been trying to sort out all the channels that monetary policy will affect output, and which ones are likely to be short circuited this time around.
IMF Cuts Growth Forecasts
Decoupling seems ever more unlikely…
How Much Stimulus? Dollar Amounts versus Efficacy
The stimulus package seems near a done deal, and the critiques are abounding — as they should be. Greg Mankiw says no fiscal stimulus package is necessary, given the current state of the economy. Andrew Samwick says implementing a stimulus package ill conceived given that excessive deficits are what got us into this mess (a view I have some sympathy with). Jim Hamilton argues that a properly constructed fiscal stimulus is unlikely to be implemented in time, and may additionally further erode the dollar’s role as a safe haven. Paul Krugman argues that the structure of the package leaves much to be desired.