The World Bank’s new World Development Indicators were released a bit over a month ago. The impact on the estimates of RMB misalignment are substantial. (This is an elaboration on a RGEMonitor post by Yin-Wong Cheung from a week and half ago, and is based on preliminary results from a presentation made yesterday at a Deutsche Bundesbank and Center for Financial Studies/Goethe University Frankfurt Workshop on Panel Methods and Open Economies”.)
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Reconciling Estimates: Biofuels and Food Prices
The AP describes Lazear’s views on the role of biofuels on rising prices thus: “US disputes IMF on food prices”.
From the article by Desmond Butler:
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Bush administration is disputing the International Monetary Fund’s claim that increased production of biofuels is the biggest factor in rising food prices.
High Frequency GDP Estimates
From Macroeconomic Advisers, May 14:
Monthly GDP Index: March 2008
Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in March. This followed a 1.0% decline in February that was revised up from a 1.2% decline in last month’s report. The moderate increase in monthly GDP in March can largely be accounted for by positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures and domestic spending on capital goods. A large positive contribution from net exports was essentially offset by a large negative contribution from inventory investment. The level of monthly GDP in March was 0.5% below the first-quarter average at an annual rate. Our latest tracking forecast of 2.6% growth of GDP in Q2 assumes average monthly increases of 0.4% per month from April to June.
Musing on Seasonal Adjustment and the CPI
The latest CPI release provided some much needed relief on the inflation front. What caught my eye was some of the discussion regarding the seasonal adjustment. This inspired me to wonder what seasonal adjustment was doing.
Net Exports, Oil Imports, and Implications for GDP
The March trade release was taken as good news. Here’s some reasons to wonder a bit more about how good the news was.
Lazear Sees No Recession for U.S. Economy
From WSJ, Henry Pulizzi and John D. McKinnon write:
Current Account Balances, Again
Two years ago, as part of a multi-year project, Charles Engel and I organized a conference on current account sustainability in major advanced economies.
Lask week, we convened a follow-up conference aimed at updating our knowledge on this subject. Below is the latest read on the U.S. current account to GDP.
Updated Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index Online
The newest version of the Chinn-Ito financial openness index (earlier discussed here), extending up to 2006, has just been posted. Here’s the series for Argentina and for Venezuela.
A Memo I’d Love to See: Whales and Economics
From the Washington Post:
White House officials for more than a year have blocked a rule aimed at protecting endangered North Atlantic right whales by challenging the findings of government scientists, according to documents obtained by the Union of Concerned Scientists.
Revisions, Again
The 0.6 ppt growth rate (SAAR) reported in the 2008Q1 advance release seemed to validate the President’s assertion that we’re not in a recession, discussed in this post.