The credit crunch seems to be worsening, rather than lessening, and the conundrum seems to have disappeared.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The Expansion Compared: An Update
Just to put the 2007Q3 3.9% SAAR increase in GDP in perspective, here is how output stacks up during this expansion as compared to the last.
Modeling Exchange Rates: What Does Current Academic Thinking Have to Say about the Dollar’s Future?
If this is what Federal receipts look like at full employment…
…then a balanced budget is far off.
The CBO released its November budget review yesterday. In this figure, the red dashed line (receipts) is slowing its ascent. Expenditures are falling, but to the extent that transfers rise in slowdowns, one knows the likely trajectory of the blue line.
Policies for a Slowdown: Pushing up Oil Prices
I find it interesting that one of the big drags on economic growth — namely high oil prices — is at least partially self-induced by United States policy.
Some Observations on the GDP Release
The BEA’s NIPA release had some surprises for many. Here are some aspects of the release that I find surprising.
Does Dollar Weakness ‘Cause’ High Oil Prices?
There’s an idea floating around that asserts that the high price of oil is — at least in part — due to the weak dollar. Does this make sense?
Have Net Exports Ever Prevented the U.S. from Going into Recession?
First, a look at what the blogosphere is thinking about recession.
Still fighting the rear guard action against reality
From the New York Times (reg.req.):
White House Cuts to Climate Testimony Raise Questions
An example of one of the changes made to Julie L. Gerberding’s testimony. Source: NYT.
Distressing Picture of the Day
From the IMF’s September Global Financial Stability Report: