Or, “Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia”. The speculation regarding imminent military action rises. What are the fiscal implications of a large scale missile campaign? What would be the repercussions of likely Iranian responses (including closing off the Straits of Hormuz)?
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Exchange rates, output gaps and inflation rates
Is there any role for the Taylor rule in helping predict exchange rates?
Army Transformation sacrificed on the altar of …(a) tax cuts, (b) Iraq, (c) other
Or, “opportunity cost illustrated” redux. From GovExec.com:
Federal Government Interest Payments Rising
The Treasury Department reported a steady rate of purchases of Treasuries by foreigners (see the Bloomberg account here). Let’s hope that continues — although we should be cognizant of the ramifications: increasing debt and interest payments to foreigners.
Escalation and Accidental Military Keynesianism
Under plausible assumptions, Fiscal Year ’07 expenditures for operations in Iraq will come close to 1 percentage point of GDP. What will be the impact on the U.S. economy?
Discussing the Economy on Minnesota Public Radio
I talked about trade and the economy with AEI’s James Glassman on Minnesota Public Radio’s Midmorning show a week ago. The link to the audio file is here
The Return of Knowledge-Based Policy-Making?
NOAA admits a human role in global warming. OMB drops — based on a critical National Academies of Sciences report –plans to implement a flawed risk-assessment procedure. Are these harbingers of change?
The Wartime Economy and Tax Policy
So Shinseki was right.
International Economics at the AEA/ASSA: Selected Items
The Allied Social Sciences Association (incorporating the AEA, the Econometric Society, the International Economics and Finance Society and many other groups) meetings took place in Chicago this last weekend. I wasn’t able to go to that many sessions, but I did attend a few related to international issues.
President Bush on Economics
On Wednesday, the President writes in a Wall Street Journal op-ed (sub. req.):