Thoughts on the Dropping Dollar
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Bernanke in China
Distortion versus effective subsidy.
The October Trade Release
The non-oil trade balance stabilizes. Petroleum-related imports exceed the US-China trade deficit.
The Economic Debate over Minimum Wage Effects
A little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing. How does extending the debate beyond Econ 101 levels of analysis change the nature of the debate?
Compensation Catch-up Postponed
The Administration has been lauding the acceleration in compensation growth. Newly revised figures indicate that the rejoicing was premature, as Q2 real compensation growth was revised downward.
China: Over-investment or not
There’s been a debate whether investment rates in China are sustainable or not.
Downshifting and Reversion in Forecasts
My post on CEA’s forecast discussed the similarity between the Administration’s forecast and the Society of Professional Forecasters forecast. What can we learn from recent SPF forecasts, in the wake of decelerating growth.
Will the Dollar Plunge? Would that Be So Bad?
Yesterday’s dollar plunge unnerved markets. What’s the likelihood of a sustained, drastic decline?
Forecasts Then and Now: A Cautionary Tale
The White House released its midterm forecast on Tuesday. Some thoughts on forecasts around turning points.
Some Puzzling Effects of Productivity on the Real Exchange Rate
What should be the effect of productivity increases on the real exchange rate?