GDP surprised on the upside at 2.8% q/q AR vs. Bloomberg consensus 2.0%. One purported financial adviser writes:
2.8% Fake GDP is number are reported by biased govt agencies. What a sham…..believe nothing question everything. Does anyone believe economy is same now as it was 6 yrs ago?
From PredictIt, 4:30pm ET: Republican/Democratic win probabilities back to where they were the day before the debate.
Michael Lucas comments on July 1st, painting a grim picture of Wisconsin employment. For comparison, here are some other aggregate numbers, including the Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index, released today.
From CBO report released yesterday.
Four out of five measures down:
Reader pgl points out the recent heightened correlation between DJT (Nasdaq ticker) and Trump’s electoral fortunes.
A snapshot as of July:
Torsten Slok (Apollo) asks that question today. He summarizes:
For all private workers, as well as production and nonsupervisory:
Most recent forecasts indicate no recession, Q2 nowcasts raised (GDPNow, NY Fed), weekly indicators (Lewis, Mertens, Stock; Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims) growth rates rising, and both NBER BCDC indicators as well as alternative indicators showing positive growth.