That’s from a Reuters report a few days ago. I think it’s important to (1) keep in mind what forecasters are saying, and (2) what GDP ex-military spending looks like.
Blue line (pink line) in Figure 1 below shows the IMF July (OECD June) GDP forecasts.
The real challenge is for the government to explicitly recognize that without a strong relationship with its private sector, its hopes of transforming the economy into a high-tech one capable of generating more productivity and employment growth are unrealistic. It needs to back this recognition up with concrete measures to support the private sector, including financial-sector liberalization that will help direct more resources to private businesses rather than state-owned ones. Transparency about information and about its policymaking process will help the government a lot more.
One of the enduring mysteries of the past two years is why measured economic sentiment remains so sour despite objectively good economic outcomes.
To see how dramatically this bean counting approach deviates from consensus, consider this graph:
Posit money includes everything in M1-M3 and Treasurys per John Hall (says use broad divisia aggregate). Estimate a regression of log GDP deflator divided by Divisia M4 and real GDP over the 1967-2019 period (Engle-Granger).
Here’s a picture of employment, normalized to 2022M03.
From WIZM:
Children ages 14 and 15 would no longer need a work permit or parental permission to get a job under a bill Republican Wisconsin lawmakers released last last week.
The proposal comes amid a wider push by mainly Republican state lawmakers to roll back child labor laws, despite the efforts of federal investigators to crack down on a surge in child labor violations nationally.
Reader Econned, in response to my posting of pictures of M2 divided by real GDP, and the GDP deflator, castigates me for the use of conventional monetary aggregates:
M2? This is a pitifully disingenuous post – those who see value in QTM use a divisia index as the monetary aggregate. And you know this.
One shows that they are economic fraudsters over and over, with discredited ideas, but they keep on coming back. From WaPo:
…his top economic advisers … to map out a trade-focused economic plan for his presidential bid…. including former senior White House officials Larry Kudlow and Brooke Rollins, as well as outside advisers Stephen Moore and former House speaker Newt Gingrich…
