That’s the almost gleeful conclusion in an article in the Washington Examiner last December. Now, it’s true they based that conclusion on a Legislative Analyst’s Office report. However, that conclusion was based on the (inappropriate) use of the (national level) Sahm rule to state level unemployment rates. And as Dr. Sahm has remarked, this is not the right way to go — rather one needs to examine the appropriate threshold for a given state before using it to infer a recession.
Category Archives: California
Change in Cases, US-ex.Tri State, Texas and Florida
Guess it didn’t disappear, like a miracle.
Source: I. Rosenberg, “Global Economics Comment: Tracking Coronavirus,” Goldman Sachs, 27 June 2020.
Is California in Recession? (Part XVIII)
November employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from two years ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
Is California in Recession (Part XVII)
June employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from one and a half years ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
Yet More Scary Graphs of Manufacturing: Midwest Edition
In every single state in the Great Lakes region, save Michigan, manufacturing employment has either peaked or (charitably) gone on a growth hiatus.
Is California in Recession? (Part XV)
Back a little over a year ago, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
Today’s release of the 2018Q3 state GDP figures provides an opportunity to revisit this question — it’s likely no recession occurred.
Continue readingIs California in Recession? (Part XIII)
December employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from a year ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Continue readingGoing by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
Is California in Recession? (Part XII)
November coincident indices from the Philadelphia Fed are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from a year ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release provides an opportunity to revisit this question (the November employment figures are discussed here). It’s (still) unlikely that a recession occurred.
Is California in Recession? (Part XI)
November employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from a year ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
Is California in Recession? (Part X)
Back nearly a year ago, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release of the 2018Q2 state GDP figures provides an opportunity to revisit this question — it’s likely no recession occurred.